Which colleges will survive?

[Caracal]

For the readers in the audience, the assertions in the quoted text are out-of-step with what the online public discussions are among people who know the detailed nuts and bolts of higher ed funding, even before the shutdown occurred. 

Polly, I hate to tell you this, but you don't actually seem to disagree with anything I wrote.

[Anselm]

Any SLAC that depends on athletics to recruit students is toast.  Any school that is already hurting financially will likely close or lay off half of their employees.  The big uncertainty is getting government assistance but if the small business loans are any indicator then there is little hope of getting any money in a timely manner.

[dismalist]

Any SLAC that depends on athletics to recruit students is toast.  Any school that is already hurting financially will likely close or lay off half of their employees.  The big uncertainty is getting government assistance but if the small business loans are any indicator then there is little hope of getting any money in a timely manner.

Interesting thought. Why do you say that?

Thanks.

[dr_codex]

I don't think big money is coming from the Feds, at least not directly.

More likely is deferral (but not elimination) of student debt repayments; an increase in financing available to middle class (but not poor) families; and a tiny increase in Pell grants to cover rising tuition. A boost in the GI Bill funding, maybe. At the State level, possibly an increase in the amounts that parents and others can put into 529 accounts -- spin the wheel on the markets, folks! And maybe a tweak to things like NY State's Excelsior Scholarship Program (promising a lot but actually providing benefits to a very narrow slice of the population).

In other words, we'll see some attempts to prevent full-on runs on parts of the system, a few tweaks that will encourage more indebtedness, and nothing like the Progressive-DNC elimination of student debt or free CC tuition.

I'd love to be wrong about this.

[Anselm]

Any SLAC that depends on athletics to recruit students is toast.  Any school that is already hurting financially will likely close or lay off half of their employees.  The big uncertainty is getting government assistance but if the small business loans are any indicator then there is little hope of getting any money in a timely manner.

Interesting thought. Why do you say that?

Thanks.

I don't think they can withstand having enrollment drop by 50%.  There is a nearby school that has been circling the drain for 5 years and most of their 700 students are on sports teams.  They come from far away to play sports.  If they don't have sports in the fall then most of those students will not enroll. 

[Wahoo Redux]

There is the added vector of how states are going to fund state colleges during a recession. Hopefully higher education will be a priority for states, and maybe the federal govt will do more to support higher education that it deems essential.

Publicize.

[downer]

There is the added vector of how states are going to fund state colleges during a recession. Hopefully higher education will be a priority for states, and maybe the federal govt will do more to support higher education that it deems essential.

Publicize.

That's a little cryptic. Actually, a lot cryptic.

[Caracal]

I don't think big money is coming from the Feds, at least not directly.

More likely is deferral (but not elimination) of student debt repayments; an increase in financing available to middle class (but not poor) families; and a tiny increase in Pell grants to cover rising tuition. A boost in the GI Bill funding, maybe. At the State level, possibly an increase in the amounts that parents and others can put into 529 accounts -- spin the wheel on the markets, folks! And maybe a tweak to things like NY State's Excelsior Scholarship Program (promising a lot but actually providing benefits to a very narrow slice of the population).

In other words, we'll see some attempts to prevent full-on runs on parts of the system, a few tweaks that will encourage more indebtedness, and nothing like the Progressive-DNC elimination of student debt or free CC tuition.

I'd love to be wrong about this.

Yeah, sadly probably right. The thing that will make a big difference for state budgets is federal money to states. McConnell seems to be acting like it would be a good idea to just have states declare bankruptcy, but chances are the federal government is going to give states money. Of course, it may not be enough and states may not spend it on higher ed.

[mahagonny]

I don't think big money is coming from the Feds, at least not directly.

More likely is deferral (but not elimination) of student debt repayments; an increase in financing available to middle class (but not poor) families; and a tiny increase in Pell grants to cover rising tuition. A boost in the GI Bill funding, maybe. At the State level, possibly an increase in the amounts that parents and others can put into 529 accounts -- spin the wheel on the markets, folks! And maybe a tweak to things like NY State's Excelsior Scholarship Program (promising a lot but actually providing benefits to a very narrow slice of the population).

In other words, we'll see some attempts to prevent full-on runs on parts of the system, a few tweaks that will encourage more indebtedness, and nothing like the Progressive-DNC elimination of student debt or free CC tuition.

I'd love to be wrong about this.

Yeah, sadly probably right. The thing that will make a big difference for state budgets is federal money to states. McConnell seems to be acting like it would be a good idea to just have states declare bankruptcy, but chances are the federal government is going to give states money. Of course, it may not be enough and states may not spend it on higher ed.

College administrations think they spend it on higher ed. By that they mean, partly, attracting students who aren't going to get a lot out of being there.

[Wahoo Redux]

There is the added vector of how states are going to fund state colleges during a recession. Hopefully higher education will be a priority for states, and maybe the federal govt will do more to support higher education that it deems essential.

Publicize.

That's a little cryptic. Actually, a lot cryptic.

Sorry, wasn't meant to be.  Comes from an ongoing debate that most posters ignore, I believe.

My position (which others dismiss): One of the ways, perhaps the only way, that we are going to survive is by motivating the general populace to help our colleges and universities.  It will be a doubly uphill battle thanks to our lovely COVID.

I just mean that we have to get the word out (writing letters to politicians, letters to editors, editorials, magazine features; Facebook, Twitter, etc.; rallies, interviews; contacting family, friends, alumni, students, potential students, parents, etc.) that our higher ed is in grave danger of crumbling.  Even given the looming recession (which I pray will not be a depression) we can still advocate for ed.

I'm working on two articles now, one on a college closing in my current U.S. state, one on a university in my home state.  Publications are open to these kinds of things.

Publicize our views on essential higher ed.

[nebo113]

It's a good article for those who need an introduction.  However, I remain frustrated that faculty members exist who still don't know these basics that weren't new in 2008.

The current situation is accelerating demise of institutions that were circling the drain, but it is merely an acceleration, not a change in the underlying factors.

This is the equivalent of "water is wet and people drown when they breathe it" level of "news" with recent examples.

I am retired, so not au courant on viability.  My small, poor, rural county has a small, public liberal arts college, and I don't see how it can survive.

[polly_mer]

For the readers in the audience, the assertions in the quoted text are out-of-step with what the online public discussions are among people who know the detailed nuts and bolts of higher ed funding, even before the shutdown occurred. 

Polly, I hate to tell you this, but you don't actually seem to disagree with anything I wrote.

The disagreement is that you seem overly optimistic and are giving off that Professor Sparklepony vibe of "it's bad, but most of us are probably going to be OK enough".  It's not going to be OK for many people in higher ed for the foreseeable future, even people who have tenured jobs at well enough resourced places who can usually just ignore the higher ed landscapes as not relevant.

"states aren't simply going to stop funding their university systems".  It's actually a non-zero possibility when the state revenues tank and higher ed is one of the few items that can be cut.  Several states rely heavily on oil and gas revenues for their state budget (New Mexico is about 40%).  Those states may have started the year projecting a surplus, but things are bad now and that's on top of additional expenses related to COVID-19.

"The political and economic blowback would be huge. ... but no state is just going to shut down colleges"  When the stark choice is presented as "after we meet all our obligations for K-12, health care, pensions, and social programs like unemployments and food stamps, we have so little left for higher ed that we must ...", the response from sane people will be "OK". 

Unless you're including "armed uprisings" as part of "political and economic blowback", then I don't see politicians bowing enough when money is just not there and borrowing is already implemented to keep people from starving in the streets.  I remember the HLC making requests of the public universities in IL for their plan if the state send zero dollars that year and it was scary all around.  I remember multiple public pleas by the Illinois Comptroller to be allowed to pay the electricity and water bills for the state government during the Illinois lack of a budget. 

Even if the blowback is huge, how can one legitimately put general higher education over people's lives in the moment?  The discussions in some places are how the community colleges will get money for specific certificate/licensure programs as urgent need, but the cuts to liberal arts general education will continue.  The fear in many places I'm reading is what happens to the engineering programs when we have almost no foreign students for the next year (frequently more than 50% of the total majors and usually at full pay).

"The other part of this is that it is very likely states are going to get big influxes of money from the federal government. ...but it basically has to happen if you're going to avoid a huge deflationary spiral."  We're going to have a huge deflationary spiral; that's unavoidable.  The question at this point is whether we as the United States put concerted, governmental effort into keeping people alive by providing food, shelter, and health care or whether we let people ride things out essentially on their own and hope to rebuild an economy. 

The specifics of economics are outside my professional area of expertise.  My relevant expertise to this topic is I currently work in national defense and global security.  Part of the situational awareness for my job is knowing what has happened and is happening in parts of the world that aren't just the G7+a couple other first world nations.  One thing that is clear is that it's possible to have a big enough disruption to go from having a modern middle class with professionals to "everyone" being short-term focused on food and shelter for today.

There is no reason to think that the US is somehow so special that we are just having a couple months of different before most of us return to our normal lives.  Higher ed in particular is going to have huge shakeups.  Harvard will survive and within rounding of all the Super Dinkies will fail.  However, some programs/colleges/institutions that might otherwise have survived will be abruptly discontinued in an effort to preserve things we need (nursing programs, engineering programs, teacher and social work preparation programs).

There is no credible scenario for the next five years that results in a lot of money magically appearing and higher ed being mostly restored to a desired normal of a golden age or even preserved in mostly its current state.

[spork]

What's happening in Vermont is a good example. The chancellor of the state college system has made everyone aware of the problem: https://vtdigger.org/2020/04/22/walters-jeb-spaulding-drops-a-pipe-bomb/. Voters and legislators have metaphorically painted themselves into a corner -- either adequately fund capacity that isn't needed or continue to starve the system until it collapses under its own weight.

[dismalist]

What Southern New Hampshire U is doing could be interesting. Part of it certainly is, namely the tuition cut part.

https://www.unionleader.com/news/health/coronavirus/snhu-to-cut-tuition-from-31-000-to-10-000-revamp-on-campus-learning/article_03612259-97b8-5ff6-9e1c-134b8e8d375d.html?block_id=664693

[jimbogumbo]

What Southern New Hampshire U is doing could be interesting. Part of it certainly is, namely the tuition cut part.

https://www.unionleader.com/news/health/coronavirus/snhu-to-cut-tuition-from-31-000-to-10-000-revamp-on-campus-learning/article_03612259-97b8-5ff6-9e1c-134b8e8d375d.html?block_id=664693

Call me a pessimist, but this is easier to do for 2000+ students on campus when you have 87000 online students.