It's time to end the consensual hallucination of fall in-person classes

[Caracal]

Masks don't work? there's more illness/absence now than ever before and mostly just URI's not covid.

My theory: you have germs in your throat and face all the time but they usually haven't reached a critical mass to cause infection. They can get trapped in the mask and the water vapor that you are exhaling; you inhale them repeatedly.

We have more absence now than pre-Covid in part because they can. Almost all our classes are now recorded in some way if you have to miss. Obviously there are pros and cons to that.

The data (which marshwiggle cited for Canada) re flu is also true for the US in 2020-2021. I'm predicting flu will be closer to a "normal" year in the US for 2021-2022 because far more people are unmasked than in 2020-2021.

Remember, this was a whole thing with covid early on. Flu isn't spread as much through the air, mostly through small droplets. They don't get caught in your mask or anything, but unlike covid, flu is often spread through surfaces, so masks could be less effective.

I'm not sure there's any great mystery. Masks helped to keep flu levels way down, but so did far less contact between people. Covid can spread through kids, but kids aren't driving transmission in the way they do flu, and lots of schools were shut or having limited in person learning. RSV has been way up in kids this summer too. When people get together they pass germs, which is a bummer but not exactly avoidable in the long term.

[downer]

Is the regional variation in mask wearing going to correspond to regional variation in flu rates? Seems likely -- an inverse correlation.

I wonder if anti-vaxxers will now be less likely to get a flu jab than they were before. Like the toddlers who work themselves up into a frenzy and just hold their bodies rigid, becoming totally uncooperative. Maybe those places where vaccination rates are low will become even more disease-ridden than before the pandemic.

[Caracal]

Is the regional variation in mask wearing going to correspond to regional variation in flu rates? Seems likely -- an inverse correlation.

Well, two things. One is that flu is seasonal in a way that COVID isn't now. I gather that epi people seem to think COVID will eventually become more seasonal when there is a larger level of partial population immunity. That tends to result in different sorts of patterns.

The other thing is that kids and schools really drive flu-probably because it spreads most through droplets and close contact. My impression is that most people don't get flu from some guy sitting at the other table in a restaurant. Kids spread it to each other, parents get it from kids and then it spreads through other settings, like workplaces or dorms where people can sneeze and cough on each other, or touch things people sneezed or coughed on. Obviously masks can disrupt some of this transmission, particularly in work settings, but a lot of flu spread is going to happen in places where people are not wearing masks-like around vaccinated family members or friends.

[the_geneticist]

We're on quarters and our Fall classes just started.  I've had 1 student contact me already so say they tested positive & have to isolate for 10 days.
It's going to be a long quarter.

[whynotbc]

Is the regional variation in mask wearing going to correspond to regional variation in flu rates? Seems likely -- an inverse correlation.

Well, two things. One is that flu is seasonal in a way that COVID isn't now. I gather that epi people seem to think COVID will eventually become more seasonal when there is a larger level of partial population immunity. That tends to result in different sorts of patterns.

The other thing is that kids and schools really drive flu-probably because it spreads most through droplets and close contact. My impression is that most people don't get flu from some guy sitting at the other table in a restaurant. Kids spread it to each other, parents get it from kids and then it spreads through other settings, like workplaces or dorms where people can sneeze and cough on each other, or touch things people sneezed or coughed on. Obviously masks can disrupt some of this transmission, particularly in work settings, but a lot of flu spread is going to happen in places where people are not wearing masks-like around vaccinated family members or friends.

Improved ventilation and possibly masking may help with the flu along with other viral diseases.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abd9149

[mahagonny]

Improved ventilation and possibly masking may help with the flu along with other viral diseases.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abd9149

Thanks, trying to wrap my brain around all this.

I have heard for example that streptococcus tests used to be read improperly because while strep germs are often present in the throat they may not be the culprit of the infection being suffered.. So nurses, et al now have an improved way of testing. I used to have a great ear nose and throat guy but he has died.
So I speculate that germs could collect in your mask, be repeatedly fanned with added water vapor fresh oxygen and...then what? Start growing and get inhaled again? Of course I throw away my paper masks every couple hours.

[whynotbc]

Improved ventilation and possibly masking may help with the flu along with other viral diseases.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abd9149

Thanks, trying to wrap my brain around all this.

I have heard for example that streptococcus tests used to be read improperly because while strep germs are often present in the throat they may not be the culprit of the infection being suffered.. So nurses, et al now have an improved way of testing. I used to have a great ear nose and throat guy but he has died.
So I speculate that germs could collect in your mask, be repeatedly fanned with added water vapor fresh oxygen and...then what? Start growing and get inhaled again? Of course I throw away my paper masks every couple hours.

Viral particles aren't going to replicate on their own. Bacterial infection from yourself is thought to be unlikely with face masks assuming you have good hygeine. 

[Caracal]

Improved ventilation and possibly masking may help with the flu along with other viral diseases.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abd9149

Thanks, trying to wrap my brain around all this.

I have heard for example that streptococcus tests used to be read improperly because while strep germs are often present in the throat they may not be the culprit of the infection being suffered.. So nurses, et al now have an improved way of testing. I used to have a great ear nose and throat guy but he has died.
So I speculate that germs could collect in your mask, be repeatedly fanned with added water vapor fresh oxygen and...then what? Start growing and get inhaled again? Of course I throw away my paper masks every couple hours.

Like a lot of things, possible, but I think pretty unlikely. If Covid could easily get passed through such means, you would probably have lots of documented cases of people who caught it from surfaces, despite not being in the same room as an infected person. Last time I checked, there were no cases that could actually be tied to surfaces. It isn't like a cloth or paper mask is dramatically different than any other piece of fabric.

The problem with this kind of stuff is it is just a distraction and results in people worrying about the wrong things. Get vaccinated, wear a mask in public indoor settings. It seems kind of doubtful that hand washing is going to make a big difference with COVID, but getting sick from other things isn't great either, so wash your hands at reasonable intervals.

At some point, worrying about too many things becomes bad for your mental health. I really can't go about my day and try to calculate how every thing I do might or might not increase my risk of getting covid. I did that for more than a year and it was exhausting. Now that I'm vaccinated, it isn't necessary anymore. It makes much more sense to just have a set of rules that are easy to follow and don't require constant monitoring and checking. I don't eat or drink or spend lots of time in places where other people are eating or drinking. I don't worry about takeout, or going into stores. Teaching is my job, I want to be doing it in person, and my school has a mask mandate so I try not to spend too much time worrying about that either. I really don't have the mental energy and space to spend my time thinking about filtration in classrooms and I definitely am not going to spend my time thinking up ersatz ways covid viruses could enter my lungs.

[mahagonny]

For me it's a big hassle wearing a mask because my work involves a lot of contact hours. I am double vaccinated and I follow rules to the letter, so the mask stays on. I asked a doctor recently if masks really help and didn't really give me an answer. He mentioned that he has rhinitis so wearing a mask makes his day much more difficult. After hemming and hawing his last comment was 'you should definitely wear a mask if it makes you more comfortable.' I'm not worrying. I'm inquiring.

[Caracal]

For me it's a big hassle wearing a mask because my work involves a lot of contact hours. I am double vaccinated and I follow rules to the letter, so the mask stays on. I asked a doctor recently if masks really help and didn't really give me an answer. He mentioned that he has rhinitis so wearing a mask makes his day much more difficult. After hemming and hawing his last comment was 'you should definitely wear a mask if it makes you more comfortable.' I'm not worrying. I'm inquiring.

I think it's pretty clear that a good quality mask that fits does make it much less likely you will transmit Covid to anyone and somewhat less likely that you'll get infected. If everyone is wearing them somewhere like a classroom, it should make it a lot less likely you'll have spread.

I don't enjoy masks either, though. A month into the semester, I'm fairly used to talking with it, but it still feels stifling. It also makes me sweat a lot more around my face. The other day after I walked a half mile to class and put the mask on, I realized 15 minutes into class that actual droplets of sweat were falling to the ground from brow. I also get a lot of neck sweat, which is particularly gross. When cases get low enough that masks aren't required anymore, I'm certainly not going to keep wearing them out of an abundance of caution.

[downer]

When you are going by public transport, wearing masks to campus and back, it makes for a lot of mask wearing. I find it gets tender behind my ears by the end of the day.

[whynotbc]

For me it's a big hassle wearing a mask because my work involves a lot of contact hours. I am double vaccinated and I follow rules to the letter, so the mask stays on. I asked a doctor recently if masks really help and didn't really give me an answer. He mentioned that he has rhinitis so wearing a mask makes his day much more difficult. After hemming and hawing his last comment was 'you should definitely wear a mask if it makes you more comfortable.' I'm not worrying. I'm inquiring.

Those that study infectious agents in aerosols say to wear masks. N95 is better than cloth masks but the latter is better than nothing. Pubic health and medical doctors are behind the science on this as they got drilled into their heads that to be airborne the particles have to be smaller than 5 microns. What the physics and empirical research show is larger particles (greater than 5 microns) can be aerosols including those that many virions are in.

Ventilation is what institutions and agencies should be worrying about in the longer term. We can improve health by improving the air we breathe in buildings on multiple fronts.

With COVID, it is a multi-layered approach of vaccinations, improved ventilation, masking, and testing in some combo. At the individual level, as Caracal points out, you do what you can and you can't worry about the rest. If vaccinated, and you and others are masking indoors where people are talking (i.e., a classroom) or eating/drinking, you are probably in good shape.

[mahagonny]

When you are going by public transport, wearing masks to campus and back, it makes for a lot of mask wearing. I find it gets tender behind my ears by the end of the day.

The cheap ones I buy in bulk are too tight for my fat head. I snip the string and tie in an extra piece. Relief for the ears.

[Caracal]

When you are going by public transport, wearing masks to campus and back, it makes for a lot of mask wearing. I find it gets tender behind my ears by the end of the day.

The cheap ones I buy in bulk are too tight for my fat head. I snip the string and tie in an extra piece. Relief for the ears.

I find the N95s more comfortable than the cloth or paper masks. Maybe they wick moisture better? They are certainly lighter than most cloth masks, so maybe thats why I don't get the ear thing as much. I think I'm in the minority on this though, in terms of comfort.

[Parasaurolophus]

When you are going by public transport, wearing masks to campus and back, it makes for a lot of mask wearing. I find it gets tender behind my ears by the end of the day.

The cheap ones I buy in bulk are too tight for my fat head. I snip the string and tie in an extra piece. Relief for the ears.

I find the N95s more comfortable than the cloth or paper masks. Maybe they wick moisture better? They are certainly lighter than most cloth masks, so maybe thats why I don't get the ear thing as much. I think I'm in the minority on this though, in terms of comfort.

Masks with rounded strings hurt my ears, too. A lot, actually. Those with flat elastics don't.

The N95's I'm familiar with, however, have elastic bands that go around your head rather than your ears. That's the most comfortable of all.