Vaccination nation

[Larimar]

Thanks. Just had a look. They had a list of currently eligible groups. Only K-12 teachers count as educators for them, and since I lost my classes I'm not even any kind of educator right now. I'm not in any other eligible category: over 75, medical or essential worker, etc. No word on when any other groups might become eligible.

Back to the hermit cave, trying not be too crabby.


Larimar

[apl68]

Our Rotary "vaccination party" went well.  The speaker at the meeting itself was the local pharmacist.  Very informative take from one of the people on the front lines of the vaccination campaign.  He says that they've already given 700 doses.  And that he has been working overtime to make sure that not a single supplied dose is wasted.  If a vaccination appointment falls through he will work to make sure it goes to somebody else on the list.

He also said that the underwhelming vaccination numbers so far have been in part due to a lag in reporting caused by a cumbersome reporting system.  The system apparently requires a good deal more demographic data than usual.  Pharmacists would rather spend their time giving shots than typing in data--but at the same time they worry that failing to report the data just so could cause their region to fall behind in vaccine allocations. 

He also addressed the widespread reluctance to be vaccinated, even by healthcare workers and nursing home staff.  He has found that persuasion works better than debate.  He points out that he's given this stuff to himself and the members of his family who work with him.

[Cheerful]

Scientists out there and anyone else who knows:

Why can't the U.S. build new facilities that will manufacture massive amounts of at least the two approved vaccines?  Even if it takes some months to get the facilities built and operating, why not?

[Kron3007]

Scientists out there and anyone else who knows:

Why can't the U.S. build new facilities that will manufacture massive amounts of at least the two approved vaccines?  Even if it takes some months to get the facilities built and operating, why not?

I have wondered the same thing, except I am in Canada where supply is even worse. 

Here, we had a government facility that did manufacture a similar type of vaccine for animals but they claim they cant do so for humans.  I get that they need to be GMP compliant, so perhaps a retrofit was not possible.  However, the government invested 44 million to build out the capacity by Nov, but now they are saying mid 2021.  Building out capacity to manufacture vaccines should have been one of the top priorities, and I find these delays inexcusable.  Every country with capacity, should have been working on this to ensure the health and safety of their own population, but also to rapidly vaccinate countries without these resources.

Actually, these things should have been in place before the pandemic (at least a facility that would only need minor upgrades) along with an actual plan, but we were caught with our pants down in many ways. 

[clean]

Why can't the U.S. build new facilities

Is this a question about whether the Federal US Government should own and operate such a facility?
(the same people that are in charge of the IRS, the DMV, medicare?)
[Ok, I know that the Federal Gubment is not in charge of the DMV, but I could not think of an otherwise 'popular' government function]

Could private companies do it?
Hell yes, but Economics quickly comes up.  There are more and more vaccines on the horizon, so the price of the vaccine is going to go down as is the quantity demanded (hence the total revenue) for such a venture.  No firm wants to bankrupt itself for the good of society. 

[Kron3007]

Why can't the U.S. build new facilities

Is this a question about whether the Federal US Government should own and operate such a facility?
(the same people that are in charge of the IRS, the DMV, medicare?)
[Ok, I know that the Federal Gubment is not in charge of the DMV, but I could not think of an otherwise 'popular' government function]

Could private companies do it?
Hell yes, but Economics quickly comes up.  There are more and more vaccines on the horizon, so the price of the vaccine is going to go down as is the quantity demanded (hence the total revenue) for such a venture.  No firm wants to bankrupt itself for the good of society.

You trust them to run the military to keep you safe, but not to produce vaccines to keep you healthy?  There are some areas of national security and health where the government can and should have capacity, and I think this is one.  There are all sorts of research institutions that could use such a facility during non-pandemic times and then relatively easily switch over during emergencies, but this would take some planning. 

I think this is more true in smaller countries like Canada since we do not have the private manufacturing base for this and are now completely dependent on private, foreign, entities for something that is kind of important.  However, I do think the government should have a way to manufacture critically important items themselves or force private entities to do so during emergencies (which exists in the US I think). 

While I hate to agree with Trump, I do feel it is important to ensure your country has the manufacturing base to be self sufficient in emergencies or in the case of conflict.     

[dismalist]

About 70 million doses were shipped in 2020 and one billion are expected in 2021. Moreover, second generation vaccines are in the works.

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-12-28/covid-19-vaccine-supply-chain-delay

Delays are less due to  limited production capacity, but rather limited government competence. The single worst offense was the time it took the regulators to approve the vaccine. Superior testing protocols [human challenge trials] were thought of, but not permitted.

[mamselle]

It takes time, planning, zoning, money, and passing a bazillion inspections. Plus trained, knowledgeable production staff, supervisors, packaging and delivery teams.

One pharma out of the 5 I worked for as an EA had a production plant in-state, and it was 20 miles out of town. The other four were in different states, or overseas.

Many pharmas with US lab footprints are centered elsewhere. They'd have to get more clearances for international production from both their own countries, and ours, as well as patent-use clearances, which can take decades of litigation if there's a challenge.

It's not as simple as that.

M.

[Caracal]

Delays are less due to  limited production capacity, but rather limited government competence. The single worst offense was the time it took the regulators to approve the vaccine. Superior testing protocols [human challenge trials] were thought of, but not permitted.

I don't think that's particularly reasonable. Human challenge trials are often presented as this magical solution, but while they might be useful in some circumstances, they have various problems and wouldn't really be a substitute for a phase 3 trial. This article gives a good overview of some of the problems.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/23/challenge-trials-live-coronavirus-speedy-covid-19-vaccine/

Vaccines often don't work, they sometimes have side effects, sometimes they work differently in the real world than under controlled conditions. There's not really a way to figure that out without doing randomized trials on large groups of people and until you do figure it out you can't give lots of people a vaccine.

[ciao_yall]

About 70 million doses were shipped in 2020 and one billion are expected in 2021. Moreover, second generation vaccines are in the works.

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-12-28/covid-19-vaccine-supply-chain-delay

Delays are less due to  limited production capacity, but rather limited government competence. The single worst offense was the time it took the regulators to approve the vaccine. Superior testing protocols [human challenge trials] were thought of, but not permitted.

Just the ethics of that scenario is utterly appalling. Who would volunteer? Why?

[dismalist]

Delays are less due to  limited production capacity, but rather limited government competence. The single worst offense was the time it took the regulators to approve the vaccine. Superior testing protocols [human challenge trials] were thought of, but not permitted.

I don't think that's particularly reasonable. Human challenge trials are often presented as this magical solution, but while they might be useful in some circumstances, they have various problems and wouldn't really be a substitute for a phase 3 trial. This article gives a good overview of some of the problems.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/23/challenge-trials-live-coronavirus-speedy-covid-19-vaccine/

Vaccines often don't work, they sometimes have side effects, sometimes they work differently in the real world than under controlled conditions. There's not really a way to figure that out without doing randomized trials on large groups of people and until you do figure it out you can't give lots of people a vaccine.

Trade offs wherever one looks.

[Kron3007]

About 70 million doses were shipped in 2020 and one billion are expected in 2021. Moreover, second generation vaccines are in the works.

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-12-28/covid-19-vaccine-supply-chain-delay

Delays are less due to  limited production capacity, but rather limited government competence. The single worst offense was the time it took the regulators to approve the vaccine. Superior testing protocols [human challenge trials] were thought of, but not permitted.

Well, they have been approved but we are in short supply (at least here) so it seems that production is at least part of the problem.  We had just established vaccination centers that have now shut down (temporarily) die to lack of supply.  Perhaps these issues are not so bad  in the US, or even Canada for that matter, but most of the world is waiting on the sidelines.

If one billion doses are expected this year, and it takes 2 doses per person, that still leaves about 7 billion people without access. 

[dismalist]

That's from two firms, and there are 11 more on the way. As I said, we wasted much of a year.

[Parasaurolophus]

My province has announced that they'll be vaccinating according to age, with the expectation that everyone will be done by the end of September.

It doesn't sound maximally efficient to me, but whatever, I guess we'll see what happens.

[downer]

I was talking to my opthamologist today who said he was getting the covid vaccine soon but was quite frightened to be taking a live vaccine that is untested for long term effects.

We have seen large proportions of health care workers turn down the opportunity to take the vaccine.

Have you had conversations with people with medical training who are reluctant to take the vaccine? What have they said?