Vaccination nation

[Ruralguy]

All I can say is that I certainly see the community risk. For that reason, I have started with my vaccinations, and hope everyone else does the same when they can. I hope that masking and social distancing continue for a few months if not a year or more, but I have the feeling most states that haven't already repealed these restrictions will do so during the summer, barring some unforeseen gigantic surge.

But there isn't going to be the will to continue this right up to the point of statistically proven herd immunity, which is likely to be at least a year from now, if ever. That doesn't mean that the concerns aren't valid, just that I think what you will be able to convince even the risk averse to do for mitigation will decrease dramatically in the next few months.

I can't say much more because I'm not an immunologist. If you think they are full of crud, take it up with them.

[Caracal]

One of the most annoying and frightening aspects is current discussion of personal risks by random members of the public instead of community risk from experts.

We're still in community risk for many undesirable things that aren't death.  Neglect of that reality by supposedly educated people is one way that academics undermine their own credibility.

I pay attention to lots of experts who certainly are concerned about community risk but they aren't proposing anything like what you are. I've seen nothing but endorsement of the CDC recommendations, for example about what vaccinated people can do.

Speaking of, this just came out today.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm?s_cid=mm7013e3_w#T2_down

90 percent reductions in all infection with regular testing of people regardless of symptoms. That doesn't mean people should get vaccinated and run out to a bar, but it does mean that it dramatically reduces both the personal and the community risk.

[Langue_doc]

New York will be vaccinating people as young as 30. Scheduling appointments starts tomorrow. People between 16-29 can start scheduling appointments from April 6 onward.

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-announces-new-yorkers-30-years-age-and-older-will-be-eligible-receive-covid-19

[pink_]

I read today on CNN that the Biden administration is developing a vaccine passport app based on the NY version.

[Caracal]

That doesn't mean that the concerns aren't valid, just that I think what you will be able to convince even the risk averse to do for mitigation will decrease dramatically in the next few months.

I mean the costs are really high. Its been reasonable to ask people to bear them as long as the risks are also high. You can't reasonably ask people to keep dealing with the same costs when their role in spreading the virus is going to be drastically reduced and hopefully the overall spread will be dramatically reduced.

[apl68]

Our local hospital is scheduling another vaccination clinic next week.  I hope good word-of-mouth from the one last week will encourage others to use it.

[downer]

Talking of pushback to Biden vaccine passport, this just in:
Marjorie Taylor Greene says that a vaccine passport is "Biden's Mark of the Beast" and that any company the requires one is engaging in "corporate communism."

I won't link to the video.

[clean]

Here I thought that your Social Security Number was the 'mark of the beast?'

What is the purpose of the 'passport'?  IS it more literally a travel document ?

Is it instead an "I dont have to wear a mask" document? 

I mean I dont particularly want to go to a movie, especially a crowded one without a mask, but I didnt like to go to crowded movies anyway.  I am not a gym rat, but a cloth mask isnt going to keep you from working out, even on an elliptical machine.  (an N95 mask might slow you down, but a cloth mask?

My local grocery store doesnt enforce its mask requirement now, I dont see that they are going to require me to carry a cell phone to show I have a vaccine.

[Caracal]

Here I thought that your Social Security Number was the 'mark of the beast?'

What is the purpose of the 'passport'?  IS it more literally a travel document ?

Is it instead an "I dont have to wear a mask" document? 

I mean I dont particularly want to go to a movie, especially a crowded one without a mask, but I didnt like to go to crowded movies anyway.  I am not a gym rat, but a cloth mask isnt going to keep you from working out, even on an elliptical machine.  (an N95 mask might slow you down, but a cloth mask?

My local grocery store doesnt enforce its mask requirement now, I dont see that they are going to require me to carry a cell phone to show I have a vaccine.

I think it would more likely be about things like plane travel. I guess you could imagine large events like conferences requiring proof of vaccination? Until cases are way down, you don't really want people to not wear masks if they are in crowded spaces, especially indoors, around lots of people who may or may not be vaccinated.

The idea of working out with a mask seems pretty terrible to me, but I think that's just one of those things where people just differ. When I get hot, I find masks really uncomfortable.

[Puget]

Here I thought that your Social Security Number was the 'mark of the beast?'

What is the purpose of the 'passport'?  IS it more literally a travel document ?

Is it instead an "I dont have to wear a mask" document? 

I mean I dont particularly want to go to a movie, especially a crowded one without a mask, but I didnt like to go to crowded movies anyway.  I am not a gym rat, but a cloth mask isnt going to keep you from working out, even on an elliptical machine.  (an N95 mask might slow you down, but a cloth mask?

My local grocery store doesnt enforce its mask requirement now, I dont see that they are going to require me to carry a cell phone to show I have a vaccine.

I think it would more likely be about things like plane travel. I guess you could imagine large events like conferences requiring proof of vaccination? Until cases are way down, you don't really want people to not wear masks if they are in crowded spaces, especially indoors, around lots of people who may or may not be vaccinated.

The idea of working out with a mask seems pretty terrible to me, but I think that's just one of those things where people just differ. When I get hot, I find masks really uncomfortable.

In Europe they are being used for travel.

In Israel they are being used to permit entry to crowded indoor spaces such as performance venues, movies, nightclubs/bars, etc. This has apparently been quite effective in getting young people to get vaccinated-- I bet the same would be true in the US. I like this better than paying people (which might backfire) because it is a natural reward/consequence.

[Caracal]

Here I thought that your Social Security Number was the 'mark of the beast?'

What is the purpose of the 'passport'?  IS it more literally a travel document ?

Is it instead an "I dont have to wear a mask" document? 

I mean I dont particularly want to go to a movie, especially a crowded one without a mask, but I didnt like to go to crowded movies anyway.  I am not a gym rat, but a cloth mask isnt going to keep you from working out, even on an elliptical machine.  (an N95 mask might slow you down, but a cloth mask?

My local grocery store doesnt enforce its mask requirement now, I dont see that they are going to require me to carry a cell phone to show I have a vaccine.

I think it would more likely be about things like plane travel. I guess you could imagine large events like conferences requiring proof of vaccination? Until cases are way down, you don't really want people to not wear masks if they are in crowded spaces, especially indoors, around lots of people who may or may not be vaccinated.

The idea of working out with a mask seems pretty terrible to me, but I think that's just one of those things where people just differ. When I get hot, I find masks really uncomfortable.

In Europe they are being used for travel.

In Israel they are being used to permit entry to crowded indoor spaces such as performance venues, movies, nightclubs/bars, etc. This has apparently been quite effective in getting young people to get vaccinated-- I bet the same would be true in the US. I like this better than paying people (which might backfire) because it is a natural reward/consequence.

Entirely based on random twitter conversations, but apparently actual checking is pretty minimal.

[polly_mer]

I can't say much more because I'm not an immunologist. If you think they are full of crud, take it up with them.

I don't personally know any immunologists.

I do.personally know epidemiologists and related experts in risk assessment and making decisions with limited information. That's  "know" as in "hey, it's Thursday so we have a social Zoom meeting to chat and catch up", not " "know" as in "I recognize that name when quoted in the mass media".

I don't know all the answers.

I do know that I trust the people I personally know who are doing the science, running scenarios, and advising states/nation states/international health organizations over any " I have a completely unrelated PhD and a newspaper subscription".  When the people who actually know say it's time, then I will believe it's time.

The fact that current data feeding into the models mean sufficient people are contributing in a bad way doesn't mean we all give up.  It just means those of us who know remain angry at bad choices by people who insist they are good critical thinkers, despite all evidence to the contrary.

Yeah, a year is still what the experts I know and trust predict.

[Ruralguy]

A year makes sense because although it looks like we're vaccinating quickly, if you extrapolate to the full population, it would take over a year. It could be a little less due to single dose vaccines and quickened pacing, but might be worse due to variants, delay in child vaccination, etc. There will be a lot of political pressure , not just from cranks, to increasingly act normally before that. I'm not suggesting we give in, but
Just be aware.

A lot of us know immunologists, etc. after all, we work at colleges and universities, labs, etc..

[Caracal]

I do.personally know epidemiologists and related experts in risk assessment and making decisions with limited information. That's  "know" as in "hey, it's Thursday so we have a social Zoom meeting to chat and catch up", not " "know" as in "I recognize that name when quoted in the mass media".

I don't know all the answers.

I do know that I trust the people I personally know who are doing the science, running scenarios, and advising states/nation states/international health organizations over any " I have a completely unrelated PhD and a newspaper subscription".  When the people who actually know say it's time, then I will believe it's time.

Can we all agree that is is some idiotic nonsense? Does Poly think that experts give her some super secret special information that the rest of us with a Twitter account don't have access to? Or that they don't bother sharing their beliefs in the media, but only talk to their special friends. Enough already. We get it, you're unpleasant.

[Caracal]

A year makes sense because although it looks like we're vaccinating quickly, if you extrapolate to the full population, it would take over a year. It could be a little less due to single dose vaccines and quickened pacing, but might be worse due to variants, delay in child vaccination, etc. There will be a lot of political pressure , not just from cranks, to increasingly act normally before that. I'm not suggesting we give in, but
Just be aware.

There's a lot of room in between, "this is all over" and "life has to look like it has for the last year for another year."