2020 Elections

[mamselle]

I still think that, like Hoover in the FBI, he keeps a file on each one and threatens blackmail anytime he's crossed.

Only a few, like Romney, have clean enough slates that they can affront him with impunity.

That's the underside of his power--and the fact that he actualizes the inner infant in his followers.

After all, EVERYONE wants to be able to eat Cheetos in bed, don't they?

M.

[writingprof]

The thing to remember is how much of the Republican party didn't want him as a candidate in the first place. It was one thing to "support" him as long as he was elected under their banner, but I think the odds of him getting the nomination again are slim; it would only be because of a serious dearth of reasonable alternatives. He caught them by surprise last time; he can't be "the outsider" anymore.

How I wish this were true.  However, I'm concerned that he will get the nomination again because of a surfeit of reasonable alternatives.  If the 2024 nomination fight is between Trump and Cruz, Trump and Hawley, or Trump and Rubio, then Trump loses.  If it's between Trump, Cruz, Hawley, Rubio, and ten other retired generals, inflated businessmen, and mediocre senators, then Trump wins.  That is what happened in 2016.

And that, friends, is why Democrats will not remove Trump from office in the next two weeks.  They want him to run again, as well they should, strategically.

[marshwiggle]

The thing to remember is how much of the Republican party didn't want him as a candidate in the first place. It was one thing to "support" him as long as he was elected under their banner, but I think the odds of him getting the nomination again are slim; it would only be because of a serious dearth of reasonable alternatives. He caught them by surprise last time; he can't be "the outsider" anymore.

How I wish this were true.  However, I'm concerned that he will get the nomination again because of a surfeit of reasonable alternatives.  If the 2024 nomination fight is between Trump and Cruz, Trump and Hawley, or Trump and Rubio, then Trump loses.  If it's between Trump, Cruz, Hawley, Rubio, and ten other retired generals, inflated businessmen, and mediocre senators, then Trump wins.  That is what happened in 2016.

Didn't his "outsider" status kind of keep people from taking him seriously early on, so they didn't see him as a real threat until it was too late? That certainly can't happen this time around.

[jimbogumbo]

The thing to remember is how much of the Republican party didn't want him as a candidate in the first place. It was one thing to "support" him as long as he was elected under their banner, but I think the odds of him getting the nomination again are slim; it would only be because of a serious dearth of reasonable alternatives. He caught them by surprise last time; he can't be "the outsider" anymore.

How I wish this were true.  However, I'm concerned that he will get the nomination again because of a surfeit of reasonable alternatives.  If the 2024 nomination fight is between Trump and Cruz, Trump and Hawley, or Trump and Rubio, then Trump loses.  If it's between Trump, Cruz, Hawley, Rubio, and ten other retired generals, inflated businessmen, and mediocre senators, then Trump wins.  That is what happened in 2016.

And that, friends, is why Democrats will not remove Trump from office in the next two weeks.  They want him to run again, as well they should, strategically.

I completely agree that he might get the nomination that way. That's in large part why he did last time. I also do not think he can win the general election after what happened this week. He (along with Rudy and Don Jr.) clearly incited the rioting. While the rioting this summer was bad, I think many posters are failing to realize the symbolic effect that it was the Capitol that was attacked. While he's still wildly popular with his base, he is no longer going To get much of any kind of support from other R's.

[Puget]

I think there is a non-trivial (but still small) chance he will resign with the promise of a pardon from Pence (if he starts to doubt he can make a self-pardon stick). I would put that chance a lot higher than removal (either through the 25th or senate trial)-- impeachment seems pretty likely at this point but not removal (2/3 of the Senate couldn't agree on where to order take-out, let alone that).

I have trouble imagining him accepting that he lacks power as president to do anything (like a self-pardon), or willingly trusting that someone else will hold up their side of a bargain when he's at a disadvantage. Resignation + pardon from prez Pence would probably be the smartest way to extricate himself from this mess, but he's not smart.

I agree it isn't terribly likely, just more likely than removal.

I don't think he's dumb, he just cares only about himself-- if he thinks it is the only way to avoid federal prosecution he'd do it, with a lot of face-saving bluster.

At any rate, he can't do a thing about state charges. State's rights turn out to not be such a bad things sometimes.

[apl68]

There will not be 25th amendment: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/mnuchin-pompeo-discussed-trump-removal-after-dc-riots.html

Plan from within the administration is to run out the clock.* Removal by impeachment is possible, I guess, but I'm thinking resignation is the most likely of the three unlikely possibilities.

*"The general plan now is to let the clock run out," said one former senior administration official aware of the discussions. "There will be a reckoning for this president, but it doesn't need to happen in the next 13 days."

I'd rather they had gone ahead with it, but in their situation I guess I can't blame them too much for playing it safe.

I really don't see how the President could do all that much more harm in office at this point.  If he were to try to launch a war or coup or something nobody in either the military or in civilian government would obey his orders.  At worst he could incite another riot.  Hopefully his riot-minded supporters won't have the stomach for more of it.

[Sun_Worshiper]

I doubt Trump will even run in 2024. If he does run I do not think he'll get the nomination. If he does get the nomination I don't think he'll win. But just the possibility that he could run again should be enough to prompt Republicans in the Senate to move forward with removal. According to Maggie Haberman (NYTimes) there may be enough votes in the Senate, but time is not on their side.

[Sun_Worshiper]

To give a nod to Star Wars....

"You cant win 'Chuck (Schumer)'.  If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine." 


the dangers of Striking Him Down through the 25th amendment or impeachment. 

Rather Let him follow the lead of McArthur... let him just 'fade away'.

I don't know about him becoming more powerful than we can imagine, but yes he might provoke more violent chaos if removed from office. On the other hand, he might provoke more violent chaos as President.

Maybe he will be able to campaign in 2024 as the 'peace & prosperity' candidate. "You see, not only did I not get the USA involved in any new wars, but while I could have started one right here at home, I chose not to." Someone was asking which cartoon character Trump reminds them of and most said Yertle The Turtle (though I think Dr. Seuss had Hitler in mind). I would say the Cat in The Hat. He creates chaos, and just when you think total destruction is coming, he backs off and restores the appearance of order -- for now.

That wouldn't make any sense since he did encourage civil conflict here at home.

[Parasaurolophus]

He will run again, provided he's capable of doing so (which he may well not be--he's not exactly in peak physical and mental condition). But even if he doesn't, it's his party until it isn't. And for the time being, it's still his party.

As for Cruz, Hawley, and Rubio: I wouldn't put any money on them. Cruz and Hawley are charisma vacuums, Cruz is hated and derided by the Trumpeters, and Rubio is mostly just an object of their derision. I also don't see the Trumpeters accepting anyone who tried to ride Trump's coattails; they'll take someone in his mold (blustery, doesn't give a fuck, loudmouthed, etc.--so, not Rubio) but who isn't one of the "weakling" brownnosers (so, not the other two). I don't know who that is, but I don't think it's any of those three. More likely it's some random Q shithead nobody's ever heard of before.

[spork]

A "run out the clock" strategy will on its own do nothing to remove Trump from the public landscape after January 20. He will continue to spread lies to willing believers -- which, as of early November 2020, consisted of 74 million American voters -- for as long as it keeps netting him millions of dollars in gifts from the stupid and keeps bolstering his pathological ego.

[lightning]

AOC said it best on 2/24/2019 on twitter, about the challenges ahead.

"But removing Trump will not remove the infrastructure of an entire party that embraced him; the dark money that funded him; the online radicalization that drummed his army; nor the racism he amplified+reanimated."

"As horrific as this president is, he is a symptom of much deeper problems."

Trump or no Trump, now or later. It doesn't matter. There are many, many voting Americans in and from the USA, who agree with, are in support of, and are aligned with his ideas. Well, they are really not Trump's ideas. Trump just leveraged what they already believed, validated it, made it OK to believe it in public, and put the name MAGA on it.

[Kron3007]

AOC said it best on 2/24/2019 on twitter, about the challenges ahead.

"But removing Trump will not remove the infrastructure of an entire party that embraced him; the dark money that funded him; the online radicalization that drummed his army; nor the racism he amplified+reanimated."

"As horrific as this president is, he is a symptom of much deeper problems."

Trump or no Trump, now or later. It doesn't matter. There are many, many voting Americans in and from the USA, who agree with, are in support of, and are aligned with his ideas. Well, they are really not Trump's ideas. Trump just leveraged what they already believed, validated it, made it OK to believe it in public, and put the name MAGA on it.

Yeah, I dont even think he cares about some of the issues he has been pushing but knows that this is what will sell.  He was historically for gun control, but that would not have served him.  I find it hard to believe that he has a strong stance on abortion, and has probably paid for several, but that would not be good for business.   

[Parasaurolophus]

Remember that after the Beer Hall Putsch in 1923, Hitler was arrested and sent to prison. The NYT even ran the headline "Hitler Virtually Eliminated". Everyone thought that was the end of things. They were wrong, of course, and they were wrong partly because they were wrong about Hitler, but mostly because they were wrong about fascism and the national socialist movement.

Trump should absolutely be impeached and removed. He should also be convicted of his many crimes. But getting rid of him (if we even can! It's not a given...) is not enough, on its own, to stuff everything back in the box.

[mythbuster]

The Trumps- plural- will all run for office in the future. It's just a question of if it's Big Don, Donnie Jr., or Ivanka. Rumor here is that Ivanka has her sights set on Rubio's senate seat, which is up for a vote in 2022.  Eliminating Big Don from being able to run in some ways would increase his power, because he will be free to just campaign, call into radio talk shows etc. I think it's the job he would like best.

Convicting him on crimes that send him to prison (and the rest of family is possible), is the only way to eliminate dealing with this group for years to come. It still doesn't eliminate the ideas that drove the mob.

[pgher]

Based on the comments some of my conservative associates (I wouldn't call them friends) have posted on Facebook, I think a large fraction of the Republican base still thinks Trump was screwed, that the attack on the Capitol was no worse than the BLM protests, that the Democrats are evil baby-killers who will steal their guns, so Trump is justified in rejecting the election, etc. Trump won't go away, Trumpism won't, the demonization of the Democrats won't.