2020 Elections

[quasihumanist]

The people who are armed with little enough to lose that they might be thinking violence are by and large those who would favor a Trump second term, not Hillary/Bernie/Elizabeth/Biden supporters.  Even if we have a Trump impeachment that results in removal from office, I don't expect those folks to go violent; I expect them to support the next candidate who isn't a career politician who addresses their concerns.

As I see it, the problem is that their principle concern is that our society gives too much advantage to those who are educated and those who live near concentrations of educated people.

I don't see a way of addressing this concern other than rolling back our level of civilization and technology, such as by nuclear war or a Pol Pot style genocide.

[polly_mer]

The people who are armed with little enough to lose that they might be thinking violence are by and large those who would favor a Trump second term, not Hillary/Bernie/Elizabeth/Biden supporters.  Even if we have a Trump impeachment that results in removal from office, I don't expect those folks to go violent; I expect them to support the next candidate who isn't a career politician who addresses their concerns.

As I see it, the problem is that their principle concern is that our society gives too much advantage to those who are educated and those who live near concentrations of educated people.

I don't think too much education is their principal concern.  Instead, I see a combination of:

* rapid enough societal change that means people who used to be relatively comfortable by working hard and following the rules are no longer likely to have a good enough shot at continuing to live inside, eat regularly, and be safe in their communities by doing what they did 10 or 20 years ago, let alone new folks starting out who will not be as materially comfortable as their parents.

* individual education is billed as being the new path, but clear evidence exists that a college degree that's within reach for those who start in modest circumstances is not nearly as advantageous as having the social capital afforded by having rich enough parents that one has attended elite schools and traveled in elite circles most of one's life.

* frustration at what is sometimes billed as big societal problems that neglects their daily problems or posits solutions that won't work.  For example, yesterday was National Pronouns Day and tweets from certain candidates were not greeted very positively.   The comments on Elizabeth Warren's tweet regarding her pronouns does not go well for Warren from what shows up early in my Twitter feed; people are angry about pandering to a very small portion of the US population instead of addressing other problems.  Feeds for other candidates similarly tend to bring up that we have higher priority problems that must be solved on a national scale than what other people call one as a third-person pronoun.

Arguing relative effects of automation versus trade on job losses don't matter when communities that had relied heavily on manufacturing has been hollowed out so that they are dying as young people move away, old people aren't enough to have a viable community, and middle-aged people are struggling mightily since the new factories aren't mostly reliant on having a good work ethic and a strong back.  Manufacturing has changed and people with experience were left behind.  Even if trade policies were the fix, no guarantee exists that any new manufacturing plants will go back to the same communities that used to have those plants.

* disappointment and sometimes anger about the national media enforced idea that one's career should be primary in one's life until one has enough money to retire.  That's a slap in the face for those who have invested heavily in family, friends, church, and other local community because people matter, not just individual success.  The very evident contrast between "college is for helping one become a good citizen and thoughtful person living one's best life" and the clear mantra of "so you have to postpone family until you've completed your education and been well established in your career that is very likely to be in an urban area that supports all kinds of careers, not just teacher, nurse, and police officer" really doesn't work in some quarters.

The insistence on individual expression at the expense of knuckling under to do what must be done is frightening as one looks around and realized that the trend is transactional everything and one has nothing to trade, despite being a good person and working hard for decades.  As many adjuncts have discovered, a huge problem exists when one finally is mentally ready to sell out for money and it turns out that no one is willing to buy one's soul for money.

[quasihumanist]

Polly - I don't think we disagree on what the problems are.

I think that the candidates are not proposing solutions to these problems precisely because no one has a clue on how to solve these problems, because these problems have no solutions short of nuclear war or Pol Pot style genocide (which aren't really solutions).  You can't both live like the Amish (they're the originals as far as prioritizing community, et c) and have technology way beyond what the Amish have.  That's why I think I'll die of aftereffects of nuclear war.

[nebo113]

Don't forget racism.  I live in a deep red, 98% white rural area with no jobs, declining population, and a completely corrupt ruling elite.  White folks here see people of color as the enemy, as scum...and they hated the n****r president....and yes, that's what they called him.

[mahagonny]

Don't forget racism.  I live in a deep red, 98% white rural area with no jobs, declining population, and a completely corrupt ruling elite.  White folks here see people of color as the enemy, as scum...and they hated the n****r president....and yes, that's what they called him.

That's racist all right, but seeing a politician, or politicians in general, as an enemy is nothing new.

[polly_mer]

I think that the candidates are not proposing solutions to these problems precisely because no one has a clue on how to solve these problems, because these problems have no solutions short of nuclear war or Pol Pot style genocide (which aren't really solutions).  You can't both live like the Amish (they're the originals as far as prioritizing community, et c) and have technology way beyond what the Amish have.  That's why I think I'll die of aftereffects of nuclear war.

Oh, I disagree on degree of problems. 

I think we can have reasonable solutions to some aspects of these problems and that's why I continue to roll my eyes at what gets discussed instead of what could be discussed.

For example, we have the technology to work remotely for many jobs that require significant education, but much of the rural US doesn't have the infrastructure to support it.  Dial-up is still state-of-the-art in places where we could have people doing remote work that relies primarily on communicating through Slack or other electronic channels.  If one is, say, an engineer or salesperson who is based in Atlanta, but spends so much time traveling to remote sites that one is only in Atlanta a few days per month, then why can't one live in Podunk, AR and visit Atlanta as one of the standard monthly trips? 

I know people who have that kind of arrangement, but I'd like to see it be more popular as a recognition that extended family matters in raising children and helping elders.  If we're talking employee benefits, I know far more professional people from modest beginnings who would benefit from extra travel expenses than from paying off the non-existent student loans (the current shiny object to recruit in some tight areas that ignores those who made good choices in their education).

I also know that the existing US infrastructure (e.g., bridges, roads) is in desperate shape in many parts of the country.  I have to wonder if people who already had physical jobs would be willing to retrain as a consistent group and do travel together during the good-weather-for-contruction months to address these problems.  It's not the same as being able to go home after work to one's family, but traveling with kith and having the technology through videoconferencing to spend some evenings with the bitsy kids might be pretty appealing in some quarters.

I also wonder why we can't put some of the new big server farms and similar technology where geographic locale is much less important to places where the handful of people already there would be happy to come up to speed and work for far less than the big city dwellers expect as a minimum wage.  Likewise, call centers seem to be doing pretty well in the cornfields as customers get native English-speakers for more efficient call traffic.

It's bizarre to me to keep trying to raise the minimum wage for city dwellers instead of helping people redistribute so that they can live pretty good lives on $10/hour somewhere else.  Yes, cities have some amenities that rural places don't.  I severely doubt that people squeaking by in the cities are able to spend a lot of money they don't have on fabulous shows, concerts, and shopping.  A few trips a year into the city with saved up money and a weekend devoted to culture might be a good trade in some quarters.

I would very much like to see all health debates focus on the important aspects of providing health care over the annoying metric of health insurance.  I read something like https://slate.com/technology/2019/10/insurance-access-does-not-fully-explain-health-care-problem.html and want to cry.  My family's health insurance premiums next year are $25k of which we only pay a small fraction, but I have to wonder where that money could be better spent to get care for more people instead of bureaucracy.  Again, redistributing the jobs into something else or just making everything less expensive seems like a better bet.

As a card-carrying Libertarian, making people make these changes is morally wrong.  However, if we're raising awareness and help people think through all their choices, not just the handful that currently get a lot of press, then I can be onboard that bus.  That's why Madam I've-got-a-plan-for-that is very unlikely to get my vote unless it's literally a two-person ballot and the other candidate is literally someone currently on trial for genocide.

[Anselm]

Polly, regarding server farms I think many of them are already in Podunk towns.  Ebay customer service is in Utah.  Google has a server farm in Iowa.  One issue is that the bosses might not want to live there. 

What you propose could happen if we had high speed trains, the lack of which is one of my biggest complaints about the USA.

Many people could relocate right now but there seems to be psychological barriers to making the move.  Many people i meet simply won't consider it.  Think of the students who say they want to stay in the same region after graduation. 

[kaysixteen]

Just exactly where in the US can one live 'pretty good lives' for ten bucks an hour?

[nebo113]

Thanks for nothing, Polly_mer and Anselm.  I live in Podunk and cornfields, and certainly am offended, insulted, and just goddamn angry at your caricature of rural America.  As for data centers and call centers:  We have both.  Data centers hire very few local folks, except in low paying positions.  High level computer expertise swoops in and out, staying in a rental house for a few days, or is handled remotely.  Call centers are low paying with high turnover, and certainly don't diversify our economy to any extent.

Since you don't know what you're talking about, just shut up.

[nebo113]

Just exactly where in the US can one live 'pretty good lives' for ten bucks an hour?

Sure as hell not here in Podunk and cornfields  where our better paid academic colleagues are suggesting that call centers and server farms be located.

[polly_mer]

For the record, I have lived a substantial portion of my life in the rural cornfields and other rural areas.  There's no one-size-fits all for a dying rural area, but being insulted by specific examples during brainstorming means one has given up on saving the rural life.

Just exactly where in the US can one live 'pretty good lives' for ten bucks an hour?

$10/hour comes out to $20k/year.  That's $40k for a household of two people and it's pretty common when money is tight and family is involved for people to live in households bigger than 2.  Indeed, we keep seeing news stories pointing out a return to living in larger family groups instead of marrying early and splitting off into smaller households.

The money also goes much farther when one can have a garden in the backyard and can do a lot of barter for services with family and friends.  One of the hardest lessons people learn by moving away from a true community where people help each other as members of the community is how very, very expensive having everything be a formal, paid transaction is.

Where specifically? 

Well, AARP along with a cost-of-living calculator has ten cities where one can live on $40k/year that includes Sheboygan WI, Abilene TX, and Sioux Falls, SD.

The interactive table that allows one to sort counties by median household income is https://www.mlive.com/news/2018/12/see-map-of-all-us-counties-by-median-household-income.html 

New Mexico reports zero counties with a median household income of under $25k, but my suspicion is that has to do with the extended family that constitutes many households, particularly in poor areas.  A little playing with the cost-of-living calculator indicates:

A salary of $50k in San Francisco, CA can go down to $14k in Socorro NM, home of New Mexico Tech.

A salary of $50k in San Francisco can go down to $16k in Albuquerque

Illinois likewise reports zero counties with a median household income under $25k, but $50k in San Francisco can go down to:

$16k in Edwardsville (home of Southern Illinois University Edwardsville)
$16k in Springfield (capital and home to several colleges)
$13k in East St. Louis (easy drive to St. Louis with jobs)

Idaho reports zero counties with a median household income under $25k, but $50k in San Francisco can go down to:

[url=https://www.bestplaces.net/cost-of-living/san-francisco-ca/rexburg-id/50000]$16k in Rexburg, ID (home of Brigham Young University-Idaho)
$14k in Pocatello, ID (home of Idaho State University)

[Anselm]

Nebo, I am not seeing any caricature here, just a description of economic conditions and possibilities.  I just like Polly advocate that more people consider relocating to these towns.

I am in a depressed Rust Belt town.  $10 per hour is a bit low but there are people raising families on $15 per hour at the slaughterhouse.  At lower incomes you qualify for EIC and school lunches.   Some get by without a car.  You can get a Victorian mansion for $150K.  A modest small home can be had for $50K.   

If Podunk is offensive then I can come up with a more politically correct name such as depopulated economically marginalized micro-urban community.  DEMMUC

[kaysixteen]

Potential reliance on welfare to augment one's starvation wages sorrta makes my point.

10 bucks an hour ain't getting you that 50k house neither.

Retirees often have assets well beyond current income.

Most people can't establish Depression-style victory gardens in their backyards, especially if they ain't got no backyard.

[nebo113]

Nebo, I am not seeing any caricature here, just a description of economic conditions and possibilities.  I just like Polly advocate that more people consider relocating to these towns.

I am in a depressed Rust Belt town.  $10 per hour is a bit low but there are people raising families on $15 per hour at the slaughterhouse.  At lower incomes you qualify for EIC and school lunches.   Some get by without a car.  You can get a Victorian mansion for $150K.  A modest small home can be had for $50K.   

If Podunk is offensive then I can come up with a more politically correct name such as depopulated economically marginalized micro-urban community.  DEMMUC

The issue is not the overblown notion of political correctness.  Caricature and stereotypes are simply unacceptable.   Don't duble down on  your own arrogance.

[polly_mer]

Potential reliance on welfare to augment one's starvation wages sorrta makes my point.

10 bucks an hour ain't getting you that 50k house neither.

Retirees often have assets well beyond current income.

Most people can't establish Depression-style victory gardens in their backyards, especially if they ain't got no backyard.

Again, I will point that that most people band together in larger family groups to share resources, as was common throughout human history.  Insisting that people move far from their kith and kin to live a completely transactional life doesn't work for many people and it can't work, as many examples in history have shown us.

One way that rural poverty looks different from urban poverty is often having a backyard in which one can grow vegetables, likely access to cutting one's own wood, and likely access to hunting/fishing/trapping to augment whatever one can raise.  The $50k house isn't purchased outright by one lone person; again, having family who can chip in means more people are supporting that house.

Having less money is less of a problem when one doesn't have to buy literally everything and is indeed living more like people did in the 1940s.