2020 Elections

[clean]

Quote from: clean on March 12, 2020, 03:51:45 PM
The day Trump took office, the Dow was just over 19,800, so those
Quote
white wealthy suburbanites who voted for Trump in 2016 because they thought he would do a better job protecting their money than Clinton are looking at their 401Ks right now.
and seeing that the market is still up from the day he took office.

Well, that was quick.

as of today 3/16/20, after a 3000 point drop, the dow is still higher (20,188.52)
And that was as of the day Trump took office. I m sure that if/when we fall below that number, he will go back to the close on Election day as the next support level.

"The Dow Jones industrial average closed up more than 250 points at 18,589, with Goldman Sachs and Caterpillar contributing the most to gains."  So i dont know if the 18589 number would be correct, or 18359, the close on election day itself.  (18589-250 as I didnt look the actual day's closing price)   

[mamselle]

Ummm....so, for those who have portfolios, that's very nice news.

For the rest of us....it's not the same.

Really, it's not.

M.

[secundem_artem]

Quote from: clean on March 12, 2020, 03:51:45 PM
The day Trump took office, the Dow was just over 19,800, so those
Quote
white wealthy suburbanites who voted for Trump in 2016 because they thought he would do a better job protecting their money than Clinton are looking at their 401Ks right now.
and seeing that the market is still up from the day he took office.

Well, that was quick.

as of today 3/16/20, after a 3000 point drop, the dow is still higher (20,188.52)
And that was as of the day Trump took office. I m sure that if/when we fall below that number, he will go back to the close on Election day as the next support level.

"The Dow Jones industrial average closed up more than 250 points at 18,589, with Goldman Sachs and Caterpillar contributing the most to gains."  So i dont know if the 18589 number would be correct, or 18359, the close on election day itself.  (18589-250 as I didnt look the actual day's closing price)

I am down well into the 6 figures and the bottom is not in sight.  But if all this causes a couple dozen investment bankers and hedge fund dude bros to hang themselves with their suspenders, I can't say as I'll be too upset.

[dismalist]

Oh, Christ, people: And this, too, shall pass.

[sprout]

Oh, Christ, people: And this, too, shall pass.

As someone who's a good 20+ years from retirement, this is my philosophy on the stock market nosedive. But, man, I feel for colleagues who are planning to retire in a couple months or years.

[clean]

am down well into the 6 figures and the bottom is not in sight.  But if all this causes a couple dozen investment bankers and hedge fund dude bros to hang themselves with their suspenders, I can't say as I'll be too upset.

In the last month, Me too!  BUT since the lows of 2008/2009, Im still up a lot.  Even compared to the numbers of the 2016 election, Im still up.

For what it is worth, and something that you can do if you think that the virus impact will be short lived (even if that means 6 months)  is that you can change your 403b or IRA contributions so that your contributions are going in earlier.  I max out my 403b contribution, and I just adjusted it so that I am over-allocating now.  I upped my contributions so that I will meet the max by October so that more will be invested now, and none will be invested in November and December (as I will have reached the cap in October).  IF you are not fully funding your retirement accounts, and have the ability to do so, this may be the time to take advantage of the down market. AFter all, many things are now ON SALE.

IF you have the ability to save more, remember that your may be able to contribute to IRA (roth and traditional), 403b (roth or traditional) and you may be able to contribute to a 457 plan.  In addition, if you have cash and income available, you can simply add to a regular ETrade or Edward Jones type account.

Still, IF you have concerns about the market, and have debt, then paying off the debt offers a risk free return!

[dismalist]

Oh, Christ, people: And this, too, shall pass.

As someone who's a good 20+ years from retirement, this is my philosophy on the stock market nosedive. But, man, I feel for colleagues who are planning to retire in a couple months or years.

Agreed!

Retirement cannot be planned as though wealth were certain. Some will be able to postpone retirement and some will have to tighten the proverbial belt. I must add that the current level of Social Security payments are not certain for much longer, either.

Reality sucks.

[spork]

The day Trump took office, the Dow was just over 19,800, so those

white wealthy suburbanites who voted for Trump in 2016 because they thought he would do a better job protecting their money than Clinton are looking at their 401Ks right now.

and seeing that the market is still up from the day he took office.

Well, that was quick.

I appreciate that many people don't like Trump.

However, the Corona outbreak has nothing to do with him, and how the outbreak is being handled, strangely, is not different from many other diverse countries which botched things in one way or another from the beginning. Thus, there is no point associating Trump with the current stock market crash.

When thinking about the upcoming election it's better to suspend one's tribalism for a moment and ask WHY people voted for Trump in 2016. The core of his voters don't own stocks, I might add.

I would rephrase that to "some of the people who voted for him in 2016 don't own stocks." I know of upscale suburban neighborhoods that went entirely to Trump because of the belief that he would do a better job "protecting" their money. 

My original reason for bringing this up: the belief among many voters that the president's actions (or non-actions) directly control the price of gasoline and the performance of the stock market. Trump himself crowed about the stock market multiple times, taking responsibility for its climb, yet has criticized others as responsible for its fall.

I'm no fan of Biden or Sanders. But as someone married to a female Muslim immigrant from the Middle East, I have seen first hand what his presidency has done to the U.S. government and U.S. society. Russia's compromat campaign has worked far better than Putin thought it would. 

[nebo113]

The day Trump took office, the Dow was just over 19,800, so those

white wealthy suburbanites who voted for Trump in 2016 because they thought he would do a better job protecting their money than Clinton are looking at their 401Ks right now.

and seeing that the market is still up from the day he took office.

Well, that was quick.

I appreciate that many people don't like Trump.

However, the Corona outbreak has nothing to do with him, and how the outbreak is being handled, strangely, is not different from many other diverse countries which botched things in one way or another from the beginning. Thus, there is no point associating Trump with the current stock market crash.

When thinking about the upcoming election it's better to suspend one's tribalism for a moment and ask WHY people voted for Trump in 2016. The core of his voters don't own stocks, I might add.

I would rephrase that to "some of the people who voted for him in 2016 don't own stocks." I know of upscale suburban neighborhoods that went entirely to Trump because of the belief that he would do a better job "protecting" their money. 

My original reason for bringing this up: the belief among many voters that the president's actions (or non-actions) directly control the price of gasoline and the performance of the stock market. Trump himself crowed about the stock market multiple times, taking responsibility for its climb, yet has criticized others as responsible for its fall.

I'm no fan of Biden or Sanders. But as someone married to a female Muslim immigrant from the Middle East, I have seen first hand what his presidency has done to the U.S. government and U.S. society. Russia's compromat campaign has worked far better than Putin thought it would.

My 75% blood red, poor, rural area is getting fu*ked big time.

[Parasaurolophus]

Speaking of the terrible, terrible things Cuba's autocracy does: they're taking in a cruise ship wiht 5 COVID-19 cases turned away by everyone else.

No praise, only blame!

[secundem_artem]

am down well into the 6 figures and the bottom is not in sight.  But if all this causes a couple dozen investment bankers and hedge fund dude bros to hang themselves with their suspenders, I can't say as I'll be too upset.

In the last month, Me too!  BUT since the lows of 2008/2009, Im still up a lot.  Even compared to the numbers of the 2016 election, Im still up.

For what it is worth, and something that you can do if you think that the virus impact will be short lived (even if that means 6 months)  is that you can change your 403b or IRA contributions so that your contributions are going in earlier.  I max out my 403b contribution, and I just adjusted it so that I am over-allocating now.  I upped my contributions so that I will meet the max by October so that more will be invested now, and none will be invested in November and December (as I will have reached the cap in October).  IF you are not fully funding your retirement accounts, and have the ability to do so, this may be the time to take advantage of the down market. AFter all, many things are now ON SALE.

IF you have the ability to save more, remember that your may be able to contribute to IRA (roth and traditional), 403b (roth or traditional) and you may be able to contribute to a 457 plan.  In addition, if you have cash and income available, you can simply add to a regular ETrade or Edward Jones type account.

Still, IF you have concerns about the market, and have debt, then paying off the debt offers a risk free return!

That's generally sound advice.  I'm already shoveling as much money into TIAA-CREF and Roth IRAs as I can while still keeping 3--6 months cash on hand.  I may be closer to retirement age than you are.  I only hope the market recovers by the time I hang it all up.  And if it does, that will leave me exactly where I was 4 weeks ago.  I had rather hoped for a final 6-7 years of portfolio growth before I retired.

[spork]

Updating: Sanders is obviously toast.

[Parasaurolophus]

Updating: Sanders is obviously toast.

Yeah. And it's too bad, because this is the time for the new New Deal he's been talking about, and it's the time when the country needs his policies and when that need is at its most evident. Hell, it's the time when crappy short-term versions of those policies are being seriously proposed!

I'm pretty sure Biden is toast now too, though. He's been nowhere, and it's a time when he, as the presumptive nominee, should be rallying Democrats together and doing his utmost to ensure that they get to work on quick, effective, and wide-ranging policy. It's his chance to show his leadership skills and point out incessantly how Trump and the Republicans are dropping the ball. Instead, the Democrats are completely out of touch and ineffectual (which isn't surprising, since they've spent the last year dithering and trying to smother the Sanders agenda, which is exactly what they now need to enact). The Republicans and the President are worse, to be sure, but that's not what it's going to look like when the dust settles and they've had months to point to things they tried and did and to spin the narrative.

I suspect that the leadership vacuum favours the status quo, and Trump's current polling seems to bear that out.

[apostrophe]

Updating: Sanders is obviously toast.

Yeah. And it's too bad, because this is the time for the new New Deal he's been talking about, and it's the time when the country needs his policies and when that need is at its most evident. Hell, it's the time when crappy short-term versions of those policies are being seriously proposed!

I'm pretty sure Biden is toast now too, though. He's been nowhere, and it's a time when he, as the presumptive nominee, should be rallying Democrats together and doing his utmost to ensure that they get to work on quick, effective, and wide-ranging policy. It's his chance to show his leadership skills and point out incessantly how Trump and the Republicans are dropping the ball. Instead, the Democrats are completely out of touch and ineffectual (which isn't surprising, since they've spent the last year dithering and trying to smother the Sanders agenda, which is exactly what they now need to enact). The Republicans and the President are worse, to be sure, but that's not what it's going to look like when the dust settles and they've had months to point to things they tried and did and to spin the narrative.

I suspect that the leadership vacuum favours the status quo, and Trump's current polling seems to bear that out.

Too soon to roast/toast Biden. The narratives of the current crisis are only just being written and will be revised continuously in the weeks to come.

[writingprof]

Updating: Sanders is obviously toast.

Yeah. And it's too bad, because this is the time for the new New Deal he's been talking about, and it's the time when the country needs his policies and when that need is at its most evident. Hell, it's the time when crappy short-term versions of those policies are being seriously proposed!

I'm pretty sure Biden is toast now too, though. He's been nowhere, and it's a time when he, as the presumptive nominee, should be rallying Democrats together and doing his utmost to ensure that they get to work on quick, effective, and wide-ranging policy. It's his chance to show his leadership skills and point out incessantly how Trump and the Republicans are dropping the ball. Instead, the Democrats are completely out of touch and ineffectual (which isn't surprising, since they've spent the last year dithering and trying to smother the Sanders agenda, which is exactly what they now need to enact). The Republicans and the President are worse, to be sure, but that's not what it's going to look like when the dust settles and they've had months to point to things they tried and did and to spin the narrative.

I suspect that the leadership vacuum favours the status quo, and Trump's current polling seems to bear that out.

Too soon to roast/toast Biden. The narratives of the current crisis are only just being written and will be revised continuously in the weeks to come.

Where is Biden?  Now, admittedly, I tend only to read the headlines, but I haven't seen his name in the news very much this last week.  I'm not saying he should be setting up a shadow government, but it's definitely in his interest that we remember that he exists and think of him as at least intellectually active during this period.

I wonder if his advisers are telling him, "Just keep your head down, sir.  Trump will f--k this up, and you'll be the only alternative.  No need to say anything."  That may work, but it's risky business.