2020 Elections

[Descartes]

That's only part 1 of the problem.  If Orange Julius loses, do you honestly think 30 million well armed MAGA hats are going to give up that easily?

Are you expecting something like the recent rioting and looting?

If Trump loses badly enough for the Republican Party to abandon Trumpism, I'm expecting widespread domestic terrorism.  Repeats of the DC sniper attacks paralyzing every major city for months, plus some more dramatic and deadly incidents.

And if they do that, we musn't judge them; we must simply recognize that it is their frustration that drove them to that point and that perhaps, all of us are complicit in that frustration.

[secundem_artem]

That's only part 1 of the problem.  If Orange Julius loses, do you honestly think 30 million well armed MAGA hats are going to give up that easily?

Are you expecting something like the recent rioting and looting?

If Trump loses badly enough for the Republican Party to abandon Trumpism, I'm expecting widespread domestic terrorism.  Repeats of the DC sniper attacks paralyzing every major city for months, plus some more dramatic and deadly incidents.

I hope you're wrong.  Most of these same folks expected widespread attacks once Obama took office and many of them certainly added to their armory and/or got concealed carry permits, etc., in anticipation.  However, they (mostly) didn't initiate any violence - although an awful lot of hate groups formed or grew in size.  Since Biden is an old white male and most consider themselves law-abiding patriots, we'll just have to hope they can remain reasonably calm again, even if Dump tries to twitter-lash them into insurrection.

All I know is that every organization I am involved with is busy writing up anti-racism statements while the MAGA hats are more likely to be out there buying bigger guns and more bullets.  The pen may be mightier than the sword in the long run, but in the short run, paper is not bullet proof.

Some of this all make me reflect on Germany and Germans.  Much of the Western Canon, our music, our philosophy, our art - indeed our civilization - can be traced back to Germany.  There is much to suggest they are an intelligent, creative, orderly and cultured society.  Yet one single lunatic was able to drive these largely admirable people into committing the biggest genocide in human history. 

America has the single lunatic, he has spent nearly 4 years whipping up lizard brain level emotion, and the loss of faith in American society and institutions is palpable.  There is much in American society that is admirable, but I don't know if orderly and philosophical is writ large in the American DNA.  The match is lit.  I'm just not sure whether or not the kindling is flammable.

Best case scenario I can think of for a peaceful 2021 is that Trump wins re-election but that the Democrats keep the house and take the senate.  Trump's just King Lear.  Turtle faced Mitch is the far more dangerous Iago. (Yeah, I know, I've mixed my Shakespearean metaphors)

[ciao_yall]

That's only part 1 of the problem.  If Orange Julius loses, do you honestly think 30 million well armed MAGA hats are going to give up that easily?

Are you expecting something like the recent rioting and looting?

If Trump loses badly enough for the Republican Party to abandon Trumpism, I'm expecting widespread domestic terrorism.  Repeats of the DC sniper attacks paralyzing every major city for months, plus some more dramatic and deadly incidents.

I hope you're wrong.  Most of these same folks expected widespread attacks once Obama took office and many of them certainly added to their armory and/or got concealed carry permits, etc., in anticipation.  However, they (mostly) didn't initiate any violence - although an awful lot of hate groups formed or grew in size.  Since Biden is an old white male and most consider themselves law-abiding patriots, we'll just have to hope they can remain reasonably calm again, even if Dump tries to twitter-lash them into insurrection.

All I know is that every organization I am involved with is busy writing up anti-racism statements while the MAGA hats are more likely to be out there buying bigger guns and more bullets.  The pen may be mightier than the sword in the long run, but in the short run, paper is not bullet proof.

Some of this all make me reflect on Germany and Germans.  Much of the Western Canon, our music, our philosophy, our art - indeed our civilization - can be traced back to Germany.  There is much to suggest they are an intelligent, creative, orderly and cultured society.  Yet one single lunatic was able to drive these largely admirable people into committing the biggest genocide in human history. 

America has the single lunatic, he has spent nearly 4 years whipping up lizard brain level emotion, and the loss of faith in American society and institutions is palpable.  There is much in American society that is admirable, but I don't know if orderly and philosophical is writ large in the American DNA.  The match is lit.  I'm just not sure whether or not the kindling is flammable.

Best case scenario I can think of for a peaceful 2021 is that Trump wins re-election but that the Democrats keep the house and take the senate.  Trump's just King Lear.  Turtle faced Mitch is the far more dangerous Iago. (Yeah, I know, I've mixed my Shakespearean metaphors)

"Give them what they want and then maybe they won't shoot us and be nice to us."

SMDH.

[marshwiggle]

That's only part 1 of the problem.  If Orange Julius loses, do you honestly think 30 million well armed MAGA hats are going to give up that easily?

Are you expecting something like the recent rioting and looting?

If Trump loses badly enough for the Republican Party to abandon Trumpism, I'm expecting widespread domestic terrorism.  Repeats of the DC sniper attacks paralyzing every major city for months, plus some more dramatic and deadly incidents.

I hope you're wrong.  Most of these same folks expected widespread attacks once Obama took office and many of them certainly added to their armory and/or got concealed carry permits, etc., in anticipation.  However, they (mostly) didn't initiate any violence - although an awful lot of hate groups formed or grew in size.  Since Biden is an old white male and most consider themselves law-abiding patriots, we'll just have to hope they can remain reasonably calm again, even if Dump tries to twitter-lash them into insurrection.

All I know is that every organization I am involved with is busy writing up anti-racism statements while the MAGA hats are more likely to be out there buying bigger guns and more bullets.  The pen may be mightier than the sword in the long run, but in the short run, paper is not bullet proof.

Some of this all make me reflect on Germany and Germans.  Much of the Western Canon, our music, our philosophy, our art - indeed our civilization - can be traced back to Germany.  There is much to suggest they are an intelligent, creative, orderly and cultured society.  Yet one single lunatic was able to drive these largely admirable people into committing the biggest genocide in human history. 

America has the single lunatic, he has spent nearly 4 years whipping up lizard brain level emotion, and the loss of faith in American society and institutions is palpable.  There is much in American society that is admirable, but I don't know if orderly and philosophical is writ large in the American DNA.  The match is lit.  I'm just not sure whether or not the kindling is flammable.

This could just as easily describe the recent riots. People at both ends of the political spectrum have flamethrowers (forget matches) and unless there is a concerted push for listening and finding common ground so that the moderate voices predominate, it doesn't really matter which "side" wins.

[Puget]

Yet one single lunatic was able to drive these largely admirable people into committing the biggest genocide in human history. 

This is not actually true, and falsely absolves the German people of a long and deep history of antisemitism. Much has been written about this.  Whether you find that comforting or alarming in the current US context depends on what you think of American culture. Certainly, we also have a long and deep history of racism. Certainly Trump has done much harm, but let's not pretend that everything was great before. There are no "good old days" for American minorities.

Personally, I think both that our democracy is strong enough to prevent a civil war or coup, but also that there is clearly a strata of our culture (capitalized on and exacerbated by, but not created by, Trump) that may well respond with violence. Right wing domestic terrorism has happened before here (anyone remember Oklahoma City?) and will happen again.  I do not think hoping Trump wins is at all the appropriate response to that.

[dismalist]

Personally, I think both that our democracy is strong enough to prevent a civil war or coup, but also that there is clearly a strata of our culture (capitalized on and exacerbated by, but not created by, Trump) that may well respond with violence. Right wing domestic terrorism has happened before here (anyone remember Oklahoma City?) and will happen again. 

People at both ends of the political spectrum have flamethrowers (forget matches) and unless there is a concerted push for listening and finding common ground so that the moderate voices predominate, it doesn't really matter which "side" wins.

Functioning democracy needs common ground. The two sides in present day America, and elsewhere, are different enough that there are no or few moderates. Hence, any decision made by a majority will be loathed by an almost majority. The implications we are living with and none are nice.

How things got this way in the electorate is what matters and that's where a fix will be found.

[marshwiggle]

Personally, I think both that our democracy is strong enough to prevent a civil war or coup, but also that there is clearly a strata of our culture (capitalized on and exacerbated by, but not created by, Trump) that may well respond with violence. Right wing domestic terrorism has happened before here (anyone remember Oklahoma City?) and will happen again. 

People at both ends of the political spectrum have flamethrowers (forget matches) and unless there is a concerted push for listening and finding common ground so that the moderate voices predominate, it doesn't really matter which "side" wins.

Functioning democracy needs common ground. The two sides in present day America, and elsewhere, are different enough that there are no or few moderates. Hence, any decision made by a majority will be loathed by an almost majority. The implications we are living with and none are nice.

How things got this way in the electorate is what matters and that's where a fix will be found.

Yes, because it's that ~10% of voters who may vote either way that decide each election. The zealots on both ends who only ever vote one way are just the background.

[dismalist]

A clarification, Marsh: The zealots at either end run the show. They are the foreground,  for there are too few votes in the middle to matter to either side.

[Economizer]

Hmm..an intense power struggle between those at each end of the electorate that have gone off the deep end!

[dismalist]

Hmm..an intense power struggle between those at each end of the electorate that have gone off the deep end!

Neither side is necessarily off any deep end, Econo, or both may be. It's just that they disagree strongly.

[marshwiggle]

A clarification, Marsh: The zealots at either end run the show. They are the foreground,  for there are too few votes in the middle to matter to either side.

It's not that there are too few votes in the middle; it's that the extremes double down in their own echo chambers rather than moving to the centre where they can actually potentially sway some votes.

That is the reason Clinton's loss took so many people by surprise; the people on the left only thought about the extremely conservative "base", without realizing that to people in the middle who are not ideologically driven, there are many *issues to consider that are not the main talking points of the noisy people on either end of the spectrum.


*The economy is almost always an important concern for non-ideologues.

[dismalist]

Good points, Marsh.

The [few] votes in the middle are uncertain to either side. Why do the parties double down in their own echo chambers, instead of going for the middle, no matter how small?

I think because in the US of A hardly anybody votes. Thus, the candidates are trying to mobilize non-voters.

Otherwise, I can't figure out why Biden will choose a female African-American running mate. Female might help, on account Hilary did not garner a majority of white female votes. But African American? They will vote for Biden anyway [on account if they don't they're not black :-(]. But only if they vote!

Anyway, here we are.

[apl68]

That's only part 1 of the problem.  If Orange Julius loses, do you honestly think 30 million well armed MAGA hats are going to give up that easily?

Are you expecting something like the recent rioting and looting?

If Trump loses badly enough for the Republican Party to abandon Trumpism, I'm expecting widespread domestic terrorism.  Repeats of the DC sniper attacks paralyzing every major city for months, plus some more dramatic and deadly incidents.

Actually I'm more inclined to fear such a result if Trump wins another hair's-breadth electoral college victory, thereby prompting some of his more extreme and passionate detractors to give up on democratic methods.  Once again, I would point out that it has not been MAGA sloganeers who have recently burned down whole city blocks in rioting.  Another Trump victory could seriously damage reformers' efforts to defuse the grievances that led to that rioting.  Plus any number of other dangerous grievances out there.

[waterboy]

I might just have to get on Tik Tok. Way to go young'uns!

[nebo113]

That's only part 1 of the problem.  If Orange Julius loses, do you honestly think 30 million well armed MAGA hats are going to give up that easily?

Are you expecting something like the recent rioting and looting?

If Trump loses badly enough for the Republican Party to abandon Trumpism, I'm expecting widespread domestic terrorism.  Repeats of the DC sniper attacks paralyzing every major city for months, plus some more dramatic and deadly incidents.

Actually I'm more inclined to fear such a result if Trump wins another hair's-breadth electoral college victory, thereby prompting some of his more extreme and passionate detractors to give up on democratic methods.  Once again, I would point out that it has not been MAGA sloganeers who have recently burned down whole city blocks in rioting.  Another Trump victory could seriously damage reformers' efforts to defuse the grievances that led to that rioting.  Plus any number of other dangerous grievances out there.

It wasn't a black person who burned the Atlanta Wendy's.