2020 Elections

[downer]

I don't think even Kanye West is on board with Kanye West.

That's what we said about DT back in 2016.

[mamselle]

I thought I read he hadn't yet registered as a candidate.

In the wider interests of things we don't need a spoiler at this point, is my basic feeling.

Anything that fragments the vote could let Trump in.

M.

[mamselle]

Sorry for the double, but this deserves mention.

A friend has just emailed a bunch of us to say she's signed up for a nearby Trump rally coming later in the summer--with no intention of going.

As she put it, "Can't let the K-Pop Tik-Tok kids have all the fun!"

Crafty.

M.

[spork]

I think Susan Collins is toast:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/us/politics/susan-collins-maine-sara-gideon.html.

[mamselle]

I thought a couple years ago that she was teetering on the edge of going Democrat, or at least a more left-, or center- leaning Republican.

But she flinched a few times too often when her vote could have mattered.

So it goes.

M.

[mamselle]

Well, sorry for the double, but good news won't be kept [/sacracsm]

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/11/politics/trump-roger-stone-sentence-commutation-democrats-romney/index.html

M.

[evil_physics_witchcraft]

Well, sorry for the double, but good news won't be kept [/sacracsm]

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/11/politics/trump-roger-stone-sentence-commutation-democrats-romney/index.html

M.

Yep.

[kaysixteen]

Obviously this Stone character is a first-order scumbag, and a thug-- hard time in a Turkish prison is too good for him.   And just as obviously Romney, Pelosi, etc., are right to condemn this gross conflict of interest corrupt abuse of the pardon/ commutation power.  That said, it is a constitutional power and her proposed legislative solution is unconstitutional.  The constitution would have to be amended.  It probably should be, but given the 'incarceration nation' nature of our country, we probably, once Trump is gone, be encouraging presidents to go back to much more active use of this power, as used to be normative, as a check on unjust sentences, overzealous prosecutions, etc.

[writingprof]

A new Rasmussen poll of likely voters has Biden up only 47-45 and Trump's approval at 49%--right where Obama's was at this time in 2012. 

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_jul22

If Trump would just crack of a few more skulls in Portland, he'd pull ahead. 

[dismalist]

That's exactly right, writingprof.

Specifically, how will voters in the swing states respond to gratuitous violence? Does a black person in Philadelphia or Detroit want more police protection  or less police protection?

The really bad Coronovirus stuff is all along the northern tier of  I-95. Voters there hated Trump before the outbreak. No change in the swing.

I think the Democratic party is committing electoral suicide. [Each element is rational for it's own particular  interests, but not for the interests of, say, the potential middle Democratic voter.]

[jimbogumbo]

That's exactly right, writingprof.

Specifically, how will voters in the swing states respond to gratuitous violence? Does a black person in Philadelphia or Detroit want more police protection  or less police protection?

The really bad Coronovirus stuff is all along the northern tier of  I-95. Voters there hated Trump before the outbreak. No change in the swing.

I think the Democratic party is committing electoral suicide. [Each element is rational for it's own particular  interests, but not for the interests of, say, the potential middle Democratic voter.]

Northern tier of I-95? Not anymore. Have you looked at FL, AZ, TX, GA, AL and SC today?

[dismalist]

That's exactly right, writingprof.

Specifically, how will voters in the swing states respond to gratuitous violence? Does a black person in Philadelphia or Detroit want more police protection  or less police protection?

The really bad Coronovirus stuff is all along the northern tier of  I-95. Voters there hated Trump before the outbreak. No change in the swing.

I think the Democratic party is committing electoral suicide. [Each element is rational for it's own particular  interests, but not for the interests of, say, the potential middle Democratic voter.]

Northern tier of I-95? Not anymore. Have you looked at FL, AZ, TX, GA, AL and SC today?

I watch every day. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Cases are a magic number, deaths likely not. The link above arranges or can be arranged by a click to order states in deaths per million. Given when the noise started, deaths should have occurred by now. It's I-95 north of the Mason-Dixon Line [plus MD]. Then it gets smaller.

[jimbogumbo]

That's exactly right, writingprof.

Specifically, how will voters in the swing states respond to gratuitous violence? Does a black person in Philadelphia or Detroit want more police protection  or less police protection?

The really bad Coronovirus stuff is all along the northern tier of  I-95. Voters there hated Trump before the outbreak. No change in the swing.

I think the Democratic party is committing electoral suicide. [Each element is rational for it's own particular  interests, but not for the interests of, say, the potential middle Democratic voter.]

Northern tier of I-95? Not anymore. Have you looked at FL, AZ, TX, GA, AL and SC today?

I watch every day. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Cases are a magic number, deaths likely not. The link above arranges or can be arranged by a click to order states in deaths per million. Given when the noise started, deaths should have occurred by now. It's I-95 north of the Mason-Dixon Line [plus MD]. Then it gets smaller.

I do too. FTR, I seldom look at cases repoRted; too much depends on how may perfoRmed and on whom. I was actually referring to deaths the last week. Deaths per million is a great figure, but is biased towards the past in this case.

Thing shave been changing pretty rapidly, and not in favor of the states I listed. As an example, I'm in Indiana. Deaths per million are right around the national average, and have been for a long time. AZ is an example of a state that was way lower than IN, but not now.

As to the poll, Rasmussen is generally one that skews more towards R's in sampling. But, that matters little depending on who shows up to vote, and on what issues. Generally, the last several elections (where President. Obama did not run) have been decided by 4-5 swing states. What matters IMHO, are whether African-Americans turn out in Detroit,  Milwaukee, and Philadelphia, how much suburban women are really unhappy, and whether Trump pisses off enough old people re COVID. If the D's were smart (IF) they'd focus on statements like he made today which essentially said deaths occur mostly among old people (that it is true doesn't matter), and people with co-morbidities (true) who are often minorities.

[dismalist]

Yeah, so

If Trump would just crack of a few more skulls in Portland, he'd pull ahead. 

Coronovirus is the last hope of the Democratic Party. :-)

[jimbogumbo]

Yeah, so

If Trump would just crack of a few more skulls in Portland, he'd pull ahead. 

Coronovirus is the last hope of the Democratic Party. :-)

Heh. it is certainly a good issue for them.

I think the African-American vote would actually grow if more heads are cracked, and suburban women will be MORE unhappy with Trump.  Given my record of serving on administrative search committees, however, I would put little stock in what I think :-)