2020 Elections

[dismalist]

Yeah, so

If Trump would just crack of a few more skulls in Portland, he'd pull ahead. 

Coronovirus is the last hope of the Democratic Party. :-)

Heh. it is certainly a good issue for them.

I think the African-American vote would actually grow if more heads are cracked, and suburban women will be MORE unhappy with Trump.  Given my record of serving on administrative search committees, however, I would put little stock in what I think :-)

I believe the opposite. Black Americans need protection more than the others, as do women. Now, that's Identity Politics!

[Sun_Worshiper]

A new Rasmussen poll of likely voters has Biden up only 47-45 and Trump's approval at 49%--right where Obama's was at this time in 2012. 

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_jul22

If Trump would just crack of a few more skulls in Portland, he'd pull ahead.

I wouldn't put too much stock in one poll, especially this one.  Look at a poll of polls (e.g. 538).

[mythbuster]

Trump just cancelled the RNC in Jacksonville. I wonder who finally convinced him?

[kaysixteen]

Open rebellion in the ranks?   Fear that he would look stupid giving an online virtual acceptance speech to a 3/4 empty hall?

[mythbuster]

K16, I actually think the mobs in Portland had a significant effect. The Jacksonville sheriff came out earlier this week and ripped the GOP for having no security plan. I think we may all wnat to thank the Wall of Moms and the Leaf Blower Dads for demonstrating what it might look like outside the RNC.

[nebo113]

K16, I actually think the mobs in Portland had a significant effect. The Jacksonville sheriff came out earlier this week and ripped the GOP for having no security plan. I think we may all wnat to thank the Wall of Moms and the Leaf Blower Dads for demonstrating what it might look like outside the RNC.

Interesting point.

[downer]

I am thinking of putting a lawn sign up this election season, to support the Democrat in the local congressional race. I'm so sick of the Republican incumbent parroting whatever they are told by the GOP press machine. It would be a first for me.

[Puget]

I'm getting annoyed at reading over and over that there is an "enthusiasm gap" because more Biden supporters say they are primarily voting against Trump rather than for him and vice versa for Trump supporters. That could be a fine question to ask, but you need to ask it as two separate questions (How enthusiastic are you to vote FOR candidate X? How enthusiastic are you to vote AGAINST candidate Y?), not as a forced choice the way pollsters all seem to be doing.

Think about it this way-- suppose that eating ice cream was the only way to stop an astroid from destroying the earth, and you asked me if I was eating ice cream primarily because I like it or because I want to stop the astroid. I'm obviously going to say the latter, even if I really, really like ice cream.

Maybe there is a real enthusiasm gap, and maybe there isn't-- we'll never know because they aren't asking in a way that can tell us. Plus since when is avoiding a negative consequence less of a motivator than achieving a positive one? Actually, data indicate the opposite tends to be true.

Could these pollsters please hire at least one person with some background in psychology and rudiments of valid survey design???

[spork]

You would think more people would be aware of prospect theory/loss aversion, but no. And I rarely see work by journalists who actually understand what they're writing about.

[Economizer]

With politicians and others backing the BLACK LIVES MATTER demonstrations, while ignoring the negative factors of which accompany the demonstrations, do you think that the elections will be affected by the actions which challenge our law enforcement personnel, and the businesses, the local governments, and citizens suffering during the periods of demonstrations.?Will the large gatherings in some areas affect the Coved 19 statistics? And, will the state and national legislatures allow the roughness in the demonstrations affect the amount of unemployment and other emergency assistance
measures being sent to the general public and those hampered in their ability to "make Money? Also, will the expenditures to control demonstrations limit funding of other ongoing and proposed government expenditures, Federal, State, and Local?

[spork]

No.

[Sun_Worshiper]

With politicians and others backing the BLACK LIVES MATTER demonstrations, while ignoring the negative factors of which accompany the demonstrations, do you think that the elections will be affected by the actions which challenge our law enforcement personnel, and the businesses, the local governments, and citizens suffering during the periods of demonstrations.?Will the large gatherings in some areas affect the Coved 19 statistics? And, will the state and national legislatures allow the roughness in the demonstrations affect the amount of unemployment and other emergency assistance
measures being sent to the general public and those hampered in their ability to "make Money? Also, will the expenditures to control demonstrations limit funding of other ongoing and proposed government expenditures, Federal, State, and Local?

You're asking about a lot of things here that each require their own separate discussion, but I think the main question is: How will BLM protests affect the election?

My opinion is that they won't have much of an effect. Trump is trying to convince people that Biden is a crazy radical who will defund the police and usher in chaos. This may work to amp up his base, but probably not going to help him with independents or suburban voters for a few reasons. First, BLM polls well and Trump handling of anything related to race polls badly. Second, Biden is hard to paint as a radical. Third, it will be hard for Trump to convince anyone that he is the candidate to bring law and order to the streets, when the chaos he's campaigning against is happening while he's in office.

Additionally, by November protests will probably be old news anyway and the more salient crises to voters will probably covid and the economy.

[mahagonny]

With politicians and others backing the BLACK LIVES MATTER demonstrations, while ignoring the negative factors of which accompany the demonstrations, do you think that the elections will be affected by the actions which challenge our law enforcement personnel, and the businesses, the local governments, and citizens suffering during the periods of demonstrations.?Will the large gatherings in some areas affect the Coved 19 statistics? And, will the state and national legislatures allow the roughness in the demonstrations affect the amount of unemployment and other emergency assistance
measures being sent to the general public and those hampered in their ability to "make Money? Also, will the expenditures to control demonstrations limit funding of other ongoing and proposed government expenditures, Federal, State, and Local?

Instinct says while these things might affect how I vote, most of the people in my blue state who are firmly in the Biden camp see the demonstrations and the risk entailed as signs of courage and character. And they see the pandemic as Trump's fault anyway. So nothing can happen that weakens Biden's hand. On the other side, they already were in the Trump camp so the demonstrations will only consolidate that. I never thought I could vote for Trump, but the 'anti-racism' movement has me wondering if I can trust these characters on the left. It's striking how few people are on the fence this time around. Or maybe those who are just keep quiet. I wouldn't blame them, if so.

[writingprof]

It's striking how few people are on the fence this time around. Or maybe those who are just keep quiet. I wouldn't blame them, if so.

This.  There are perhaps twenty actual racists in the country.  There are a million "anti-racists."  The other 328,999,980 of us are pretending to support BLM to keep our jobs.

[Sun_Worshiper]

It's striking how few people are on the fence this time around. Or maybe those who are just keep quiet. I wouldn't blame them, if so.

According to polls, people who dislike both candidates are overwhelmingly breaking towards Biden this time (at least so far). In contrast to 2016, when those who disliked both candidates broke towards Trump.

This.  There are perhaps twenty actual racists in the country.  There are a million "anti-racists."  The other 328,999,980 of us are pretending to support BLM to keep our jobs.

Most people are not comfortable with racism, and if you look at polling BLM has increased in popularity a lot.  Unfortunately there are still many many racists in this country, including one in the White House.