2020 Elections

[mahagonny]

Biden's job was to do no harm, and in that way he succeeded. 

Trump's job was to dramatically change how the public sees him, and in that way it would appear that he failed.  This was his last chance to change the narrative and he didn't do it, strongly suggesting that he will go into the election with a very low probability of victory.

I don't think Trump doesn't know people think he's rude. But when he speaks softly and sticks to the arguments, he makes ground. He may have changed how people view Biden. The career politician who goes along to get along is how he brands Biden. It's good tactics.
If I were Biden I would have found a way to mention that Trump was the last one off the bogus 'birther' bandwagon or Trump's Central Park Five blunder. Did he?
Another good idea for democrats: keep Michelle Obama and her deck full of race cards away from the poker table. Every time she opens her mouth a swing voter switches to Trump.
Recent polling shows Biden noticeably behind Hillary 2016 with black voters.
The 'cages' were built sometime around 2014, and the 90's crime bill was not defended. Trump hammered away at how a mistake went uncorrected for eight years under Obama.

[Sun_Worshiper]

Biden's job was to do no harm, and in that way he succeeded. 

Trump's job was to dramatically change how the public sees him, and in that way it would appear that he failed.  This was his last chance to change the narrative and he didn't do it, strongly suggesting that he will go into the election with a very low probability of victory.

I don't think Trump doesn't know people think he's rude. But when he speaks softly and sticks to the arguments, he makes ground. He may have changed how people view Biden. The career politician who goes along to get along is how he brands Biden. It's good tactics.
If I were Biden I would have found a way to mention that Trump was the last one off the bogus 'birther' bandwagon or Trump's Central Park Five blunder. Did he?
Another good idea for democrats: keep Michelle Obama and her deck full of race cards away from the poker table. Every time she opens her mouth a swing voter switches to Trump.
Recent polling shows Biden noticeably behind Hillary 2016 with black voters.
The 'cages' were built sometime around 2014, and the 90's crime bill was not defended. Trump hammered away at how a mistake went uncorrected for eight years under Obama.

Biden is not a great debater and I too wish he was more effective, but he doesn't have to be great when he's up by 8 or 9 points nationally, he just has to avoid blunders, and he did.  Trump was, by all accounts, better this time than last time, but polls after the debate suggest that he lost in the eyes of most viewers and that he didn't move perceptions about himself or Biden (e.g. here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-final-debate-poll/).

If you'd like to provide some evidence that independent voters are turned off by Michelle Obama I'd be glad to hear it, but my understanding is that she's one of the most popular figures in America.  Right wingers hate her (I guess because she wanted kids to eat more vegetables) but they're already going to vote for Trump.

[Parasaurolophus]

For the record, Biden did mention the Central Park Five in the last debate (though not by name).

[mahagonny]

If you'd like to provide some evidence that independent voters are turned off by Michelle Obama I'd be glad to hear it, but my understanding is that she's one of the most popular figures in America.  Right wingers hate her (I guess because she wanted kids to eat more vegetables) but they're already going to vote for Trump.

It's true don't have data about how the voting will go. Most admired people according to polling includes Obama. Also Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump who have been most admired but also most intensely disliked.
While Michelle and her new sidekick LeBron James are making the news trying to get the vote out, I don't think anybody believes that urban Black Americans are more afraid of  police than they are of street criminals. It's a rallying cry, but it will turn more people off the longer it is said because...it's not true.

[jimbogumbo]

re Michelle Obama appRoval among registered voters: https://www.newsweek.com/michelle-obamas-favorability-rating-nearly-20-points-higher-trump-biden-pences-poll-1525850

Pretty sure she couldn't hit this mark if I's disliked her intensely.

[jimbogumbo]

re fear of police: https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/03/15/black-americans-police

[mahagonny]

re fear of police: https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/03/15/black-americans-police

OMG, how could I have been so incorrect in my statement? Wait a minute, the leading causes of premature death among young black men are homicide and, distantly second place, sucide (though it's a very sad thing to ponder). Someone has been encouraging people to think non-critically --- LeBron and Michelle, perhaps?
data:  https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0021934719895999

[Sun_Worshiper]

re fear of police: https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/03/15/black-americans-police

OMG, how could I have been so incorrect in my statement? Wait a minute, the leading causes of premature death among young black men are homicide and, distantly second place, sucide (though it's a very sad thing to ponder). Someone has been encouraging people to think non-critically --- LeBron and Michelle, perhaps?
data:  https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0021934719895999

I guess you don't think that black Americans can simultaneously be concerned about street violence and about excessive force by police?

[mahagonny]

re fear of police: https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/03/15/black-americans-police

OMG, how could I have been so incorrect in my statement? Wait a minute, the leading causes of premature death among young black men are homicide and, distantly second place, sucide (though it's a very sad thing to ponder). Someone has been encouraging people to think non-critically --- LeBron and Michelle, perhaps?
data:  https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0021934719895999

I guess you don't think that black Americans can simultaneously be concerned about street violence and about excessive force by police?

Re appropriate, sane concern:  Larry Elder, to name one black American, has an idea: when the police address you, be cooperative, and your odds of experiencing a violent, needlessly escalated or unpleasant encounter are greatly reduced. And I expect millions of people know this through common sense, though a noisy minority is stirring hysteria.

[Parasaurolophus]

The cops are big boys. They ought to be able to handle someone mouthing off or being uncooperative without killing them.

Parents do this several times every day.

[marshwiggle]

The cops are big boys. They ought to be able to handle someone mouthing off or being uncooperative without killing them.

Because it's so easy to tell if the irate person yelling at them has a weapon in their pocket, glove compartment, etc.

[mahagonny]

The cops are big boys. They ought to be able to handle someone mouthing off or being uncooperative without killing them.

Parents do this several times every day.

This conversation reminds me a little of something I read by the psychiatrist Dr. Aaron Beck in his bestseller Feeling Good. He talks about how difficult it must be for a surgeon or an oncologist dealing with life-death situations. But at least, he explains, the patient and the doctor want the same thing, a cured patient. Whereas it often seems to the psychotherapist that he and the patient are at cross purposes. He's trying to make them better but they are seemingly intentionally on a crash course toward depression, anxiety, suicide.
Do we have the right to act in ways that intentionally test the patience of the police, and then complain when they fail to meet a perfect standard? Or are we working together. Don't we have a duty?

[Parasaurolophus]

The cops are big boys. They ought to be able to handle someone mouthing off or being uncooperative without killing them.

Parents do this several times every day.

This conversation reminds me a little of something I read by the psychiatrist Dr. Aaron Beck in his bestseller Feeling Good. He talks about how difficult it must be for a surgeon or an oncologist dealing with life-death situations. But at least, he explains, the patient and the doctor want the same thing, a cured patient. Whereas it often seems to the psychotherapist that he and the patient are at cross purposes. He's trying to make them better but they are seemingly intentionally on a crash course toward depression, anxiety, suicide.
Do we have the right to act in ways that intentionally test the patience of the police, and then complain when they fail to meet a perfect standard? Or are we working together. Don't we have a duty?

I would accept a less-than-perfect standard. I do not accept that it's OK to cause physical harm--or death--to someone for mouthing off or being uncooperative.

The people with the duty here are the public servants--the police. They are paid (well!) to carry out that duty. But they have to actually carry it out, not abrogate it entirely.

[Sun_Worshiper]

re fear of police: https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/03/15/black-americans-police

OMG, how could I have been so incorrect in my statement? Wait a minute, the leading causes of premature death among young black men are homicide and, distantly second place, sucide (though it's a very sad thing to ponder). Someone has been encouraging people to think non-critically --- LeBron and Michelle, perhaps?
data:  https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0021934719895999

I guess you don't think that black Americans can simultaneously be concerned about street violence and about excessive force by police?

Re appropriate, sane concern:  Larry Elder, to name one black American, has an idea: when the police address you, be cooperative, and your odds of experiencing a violent, needlessly escalated or unpleasant encounter are greatly reduced. And I expect millions of people know this through common sense, though a noisy minority is stirring hysteria.

I have no interest in this kind of victim blaming. Excessive force aimed at black and brown people has been a problem for the entirety of American history, and minorities have every right to be upset about it.

[mahagonny]

The cops are big boys. They ought to be able to handle someone mouthing off or being uncooperative without killing them.

Parents do this several times every day.

This conversation reminds me a little of something I read by the psychiatrist Dr. Aaron Beck in his bestseller Feeling Good. He talks about how difficult it must be for a surgeon or an oncologist dealing with life-death situations. But at least, he explains, the patient and the doctor want the same thing, a cured patient. Whereas it often seems to the psychotherapist that he and the patient are at cross purposes. He's trying to make them better but they are seemingly intentionally on a crash course toward depression, anxiety, suicide.
Do we have the right to act in ways that intentionally test the patience of the police, and then complain when they fail to meet a perfect standard? Or are we working together. Don't we have a duty?

I would accept a less-than-perfect standard. I do not accept that it's OK to cause physical harm--or death--to someone for mouthing off or being uncooperative.

Agreed.
and that's why Derek Chauvin is fired and in big trouble. But the hysteria is why he is overcharged, and may be acquitted.