2020 Elections

[mamselle]

Looks like we're parked at 238-213 for the duration...

M.

[polly_mer]

Looks like we're parked at 238-213 for the duration...

M.

Those numbers don't match what just appeared on my television screen. 

I continue to wonder why anyone thought this election wouldn't be a repeat of 2000 with essentially a tie.  The polls for months have been essentially a tie for those who understand margin of error and that national popular vote is irrelevant.

Even if Biden wins eventually, he won't have a huge mandate.  He will have squeaked a win and then have large numbers of people who are angry about many things that aren't within the purview of the president to solve.  Even the folks who wanted Biden will likely not be happy as reality hits about problems that the president can't solve and will therefore continue to be problems.

[mamselle]

Looks like we're parked at 238-213 for the duration...

M.

Those numbers don't match what just appeared on my television screen. 

I continue to wonder why anyone thought this election wouldn't be a repeat of 2000 with essentially a tie.  The polls for months have been essentially a tie for those who understand margin of error and that national popular vote is irrelevant.

Even if Biden wins eventually, he won't have a huge mandate.  He will have squeaked a win and then have large numbers of people who are angry about many things that aren't within the purview of the president to solve.  Even the folks who wanted Biden will likely not be happy as reality hits about problems that the president can't solve and will therefore continue to be problems.

I'm following the AP calls, which are slower-moving, I see a couple of others differ, yes.

I don't expect immediate solutions to everything from Biden, or anyone else.

I do expect the return of a measure of decency and right conduct, without which I am concerned we can't move forward.

I might have preferred one of several other candidates, but I recognize that none are Superwoman/Superman-type action heroes who will put everything right in a trice.

Not even Elastigirl can do that....

M.

[polly_mer]

The problem isn't timing on solutions; the problem is many of the biggest problems cannot be solved by the president or even by legislation.

That's not a Libertarian "the government shouldn't do X", but more of a realistic "you can't change other people".  If inaugurated, Biden may manage to get more funding and resources for certain areas.  He cannot stop people from thinking and acting on certain thoughts.  He cannot unilaterally change certain societal trends or any physical realities.  About half the country who voted, voted Trump any way one wants to slice it.  That's not a small fringe group who had non-mainstream wishes and managed a miracle in 2016; that's a mainstream contingent who will continue to have their own interests and desires.

Related to physical realities, the claims in some quarters are that Biden is a bigger believer in science than Trump.  From where I sit and the information I have, that's like being a 2 on the scale of 1 to 10 instead of being a 1 when what we need is a strong 8 who can be informed up to at least a 9.

[marshwiggle]

The problem isn't timing on solutions; the problem is many of the biggest problems cannot be solved by the president or even by legislation.

That's not a Libertarian "the government shouldn't do X", but more of a realistic "you can't change other people".  If inaugurated, Biden may manage to get more funding and resources for certain areas.  He cannot stop people from thinking and acting on certain thoughts.  He cannot unilaterally change certain societal trends or any physical realities.  About half the country who voted, voted Trump any way one wants to slice it.  That's not a small fringe group who had non-mainstream wishes and managed a miracle in 2016; that's a mainstream contingent who will continue to have their own interests and desires.

Related to physical realities, the claims in some quarters are that Biden is a bigger believer in science than Trump.  From where I sit and the information I have, that's like being a 2 on the scale of 1 to 10 instead of being a 1 when what we need is a strong 8 who can be informed up to at least a 9.

That seems about right on a lot of things. I especially agree with the idea that what any government can actually do is within fairly narrow limits, despite what any political party or person running for office says.

Speaking as a Canadian, my main hope if Biden wins is for a little less chaotic relationship with the US. It's tiring feeling like any policy was thought up 5 minutes ago and may be changed tomorrow. Even a government which adopted more protectionist policies would be easier to take if the actions were more consistent and predictable.

[Kron3007]

The problem isn't timing on solutions; the problem is many of the biggest problems cannot be solved by the president or even by legislation.

That's not a Libertarian "the government shouldn't do X", but more of a realistic "you can't change other people".  If inaugurated, Biden may manage to get more funding and resources for certain areas.  He cannot stop people from thinking and acting on certain thoughts.  He cannot unilaterally change certain societal trends or any physical realities.  About half the country who voted, voted Trump any way one wants to slice it.  That's not a small fringe group who had non-mainstream wishes and managed a miracle in 2016; that's a mainstream contingent who will continue to have their own interests and desires.

Related to physical realities, the claims in some quarters are that Biden is a bigger believer in science than Trump.  From where I sit and the information I have, that's like being a 2 on the scale of 1 to 10 instead of being a 1 when what we need is a strong 8 who can be informed up to at least a 9.

I dont think anyone is expecting Biden to roll in and fix all the nation's problems, but they do expect that he would not attack the other side and hope that it could help bring people together.  Whether you agree with Trump's policies or not, it is hard to deny that his rhetoric further inflames the polarization in the USA.  I think one of the big fears is if the US can withstand another 4 years of such "leadership". 

[Parasaurolophus]

I mean, Biden does have to get the ball rolling on some of the nation's problems. They can't all wait. Starting to get serious about climate change, in particular, can't really wait two years for another run at the senate, let alone four or more for another administration.

Whether he has the stomach for it remains to be seen. Frankly, I'm not optimistic, especially given that it's not a blowout result. I'm pretty worried he'll tack right and give up the game before negotiations even begin.

[mahagonny]

As George McGovern said, don't pay attention to what the candidate says he'll do that he can't do, and don't pay attention to what he says he won't do that he can't do. That said, not all people don't take that advice. Otherwise, the candidates wouldn't spend so much time selling magical thinking. You're still free to vote for Biden because you think he has a magic wand to stop the virus, Or for Trump because you think he's got a solution to urban crime that can be implemented without pain and discord.

The problem isn't timing on solutions; the problem is many of the biggest problems cannot be solved by the president or even by legislation.

That's not a Libertarian "the government shouldn't do X", but more of a realistic "you can't change other people".  If inaugurated, Biden may manage to get more funding and resources for certain areas.  He cannot stop people from thinking and acting on certain thoughts.  He cannot unilaterally change certain societal trends or any physical realities.  About half the country who voted, voted Trump any way one wants to slice it.  That's not a small fringe group who had non-mainstream wishes and managed a miracle in 2016; that's a mainstream contingent who will continue to have their own interests and desires.

Related to physical realities, the claims in some quarters are that Biden is a bigger believer in science than Trump.  From where I sit and the information I have, that's like being a 2 on the scale of 1 to 10 instead of being a 1 when what we need is a strong 8 who can be informed up to at least a 9.

I dont think anyone is expecting Biden to roll in and fix all the nation's problems, but they do expect that he would not attack the other side and hope that it could help bring people together.  Whether you agree with Trump's policies or not, it is hard to deny that his rhetoric further inflames the polarization in the USA.  I think one of the big fears is if the US can withstand another 4 years of such "leadership". 

Agree with this but add the nation will be divided under Biden (perhaps less so) anyway since a noisy subset of his supporters have declared that the USA is now populated by only two groups: 'antiracists' and 'racists.' And they refuse to understand they are playing with fire. They will only gain momentum with him as president.

[mythbuster]

Last week I read the NY Times article on people who don't vote. What I learned form it is that non-voters (likely many voters too) have very poor understanding of how government works. Many complained about issues that the Federal government has no influence on. They were issues that the city council, school board, or county commissioners deal with. But of course these races never get any press, so people don't think they are important. In reality, these races are likely to have more direct impact on most people's lives than most things at the Federal level. I'm not sure how we fix that, but it really does need to be rectified.

[Anselm]

Is an electoral mandate even a real thing?  Do elected officials get more things done because of a large majority giving them some sort of mandate?

[spork]

Mark Kelly has an 8 point lead over Martha McSally in the Arizona race for Senate, according to the latest Times-Siena poll. He's got a huge lead among women respondents and those under 45 years old. McSally's support is from older white voters without a bachelor's degree -- Trumpsters.

I'll predict that Kelly wins in Arizona and Gideon wins in Maine.

I was 50% correct.

[financeguy]

In other ballot news California again rejected racism in college admissions via prop 16 by a wide margin. The fact that this is happening in the most liberal state in the country should show the left how toxic an issue the identity politics movement is. Refraining from announcing the race and gender of future court picks/running mates beforehand might be a good idea if the left doesn't want to lose even more of the middle to this proven loser of an issue.

[mamselle]

Umm...your antecedent precedes an impossible consequent?

M.

[writingprof]

Starting to get serious about climate change, in particular, can't really wait two years for another run at the senate, let alone four or more for another administration.

Too bad, as it's going to have to.  Indeed, I predict it will be twenty years, or two hundred!, before we "get serious" about climate change, the chief function of which is to provide Democrats with an evergreen political issue.

[spork]

Markets are already reacting to climate change even if politicians aren't. Eventually politicians will be forced to follow the markets, regardless of party affiliation.