2020 Elections

[Parasaurolophus]

I think it's part and parcel of the infantilization of the left. This is them throwing a bone to the left.

Kind of like how the Conservative party here thinks that the way to get young people on board is to use social media rather than acknowledge the legitimacy of their concerns and try to address them.

Like the other "groups" mentioned above, young people aren't a monolith. "Their concerns" will not all be the same.

I agree. But that doesn't mean you shouldn't premise your youth outreach strategy on speaking to the issues youth care about.

For context, I'm talking about a recent interview with a Tory MP in which she was asked how the new party leader planned to court the youth vote. The answer was that he would use Twitter and Facebook. When pressed to speak to specific issues they could use to engage the youth vote, she came up empty. That's grossly infantilizing.


Likewise, to bring it back 'round to the American election: it's true that 'the left' cares about diversity. But that doesn't mean it cares only about diversity, or about diversity at all costs. To think so--if that's what's going on, and I'm not sure it is (it's probably some of it, but I would be surprised if it was all of it--these people are Biden's ideological allies, of course, and many are leftovers from Obama's administration)--then it's also grossly infantilizing. The way to court the party's left wing is with substance, not appearance. (If you can combine the two, fabulous! And, really, I don't see why you can't. These people are hardly the only ones out there with that profile.)

Incidentally, I don't have any real complaints about Janet Yellen.

[dismalist]

As a strategic matter, Biden need not court the left wing of his party because the left has nowhere else to go.

[marshwiggle]

Likewise, to bring it back 'round to the American election: it's true that 'the left' cares about diversity. But that doesn't mean it cares only about diversity, or about diversity at all costs.

Tell that to the mob condemning McDonald's for "cultural appropriation" for offering a jerk chicken sandwich.

[ciao_yall]

As a strategic matter, Biden need not court the left wing of his party because the left has nowhere else to go.

Same thing was said of white Southern Democrats after LBJ passed Civil Rights... and look how that turned out.

[jimbogumbo]

Likewise, to bring it back 'round to the American election: it's true that 'the left' cares about diversity. But that doesn't mean it cares only about diversity, or about diversity at all costs.

Tell that to the mob condemning McDonald's for "cultural appropriation" for offering a jerk chicken sandwich.

We left the US again with this one, correct?

[dismalist]

As a strategic matter, Biden need not court the left wing of his party because the left has nowhere else to go.

Same thing was said of white Southern Democrats after LBJ passed Civil Rights... and look how that turned out.

Recently read that white Southern Democrats stayed with the Democratic party for a long, long time, until the 1990's when trade liberalization put paid to Southern textiles. In any case, the white Southern Democrats could  haveconceivably gone to the Republicans all the time. It is inconceivable [to me] that the left wing of the Democratic Party would go to the Republicans today. 

[Sun_Worshiper]

As a strategic matter, Biden need not court the left wing of his party because the left has nowhere else to go.

Same thing was said of white Southern Democrats after LBJ passed Civil Rights... and look how that turned out.

Recently read that white Southern Democrats stayed with the Democratic party for a long, long time, until the 1990's when trade liberalization put paid to Southern textiles. In any case, the white Southern Democrats could  haveconceivably gone to the Republicans all the time. It is inconceivable [to me] that the left wing of the Democratic Party would go to the Republicans today.

They won't go to the Republicans, but they won't necessarily show up to vote for the Democrats.

[dismalist]

Good point. And all the more reason for the Democratic Center and Right to ignore the Democratic Left.

[Parasaurolophus]

They won't go to the Republicans, but they won't necessarily show up to vote for the Democrats.

Yup. Or splinter off, or do what they can to take over. Currently, they're trying to take over, with some success. I expect that once a critical 'takeover' mass builds in the House or Senate, however, that the party will splinter. At least, if those in power are still pussyfooting with lite Republicanism, which, duh.

But we'll see. Things will be much clearer in ten years.

Good point. And all the more reason for the Democratic Center and Right to ignore the Democratic Left.

Surely it's all the more reason to throw them a bone and get them onside. Democrats need those votes. The left turned out big time for the presidential election, against the worst incumbent ever (with a horrible economy, an uncontrolled disease, and hundreds of thousands of American corpses at his feet), and the Democrats still barely won it (they came within what, 80k votes across three states of a 269-tie?). And they got smashed downballot. In a census year, which means things aren't going to get easier for Democrats. They need every vote they can muster in order to beat Republicans.

If the left doesn't find a home in the Democratic party, it will find itself a home elsewhere. And that's not necessarily good news for Democrats, even the centrist or rightist ones. They're just about still holding the ship together, but the people in power are old. They can't keep it up much longer.

Plus, you know. There are real problems that need to be solved, and someone needs to show some interest in solving them. Not that that seems to motivate anyone.

[jimbogumbo]

Good point. And all the more reason for the Democratic Center and Right to ignore the Democratic Left.

I think that Sun_Worshiper's point is exactly why they can't ignore them. The last election proved that nearly 50% of the electorate will never vote for them. They can't ignore the Democratic Left and win.

[dismalist]

Good point. And all the more reason for the Democratic Center and Right to ignore the Democratic Left.

I think that Sun_Worshiper's point is exactly why they can't ignore them. The last election proved that nearly 50% of the electorate will never vote for them. They can't ignore the Democratic Left and win.

The Democratic Party can move right. On account of the States in which rightists reside. The Left is coastal; the Right is widely dispersed.

At present, this is all theoretical speculation. The next year to two should give us some evidence.

[jimbogumbo]

Good point. And all the more reason for the Democratic Center and Right to ignore the Democratic Left.

I think that Sun_Worshiper's point is exactly why they can't ignore them. The last election proved that nearly 50% of the electorate will never vote for them. They can't ignore the Democratic Left and win.

The Democratic Party can move right. On account of the States in which rightists reside. The Left is coastal; the Right is widely dispersed.

At present, this is all theoretical speculation. The next year to two should give us some evidence.

Going to respectfully disagree. I think the last two elections provide plenty of evidence.

[dismalist]

We shall see.

[ciao_yall]

Recently read that white Southern Democrats stayed with the Democratic party for a long, long time, until the 1990's when trade liberalization put paid to Southern textiles. In any case, the white Southern Democrats could  haveconceivably gone to the Republicans all the time. It is inconceivable [to me] that the left wing of the Democratic Party would go to the Republicans today.

The Southern strategy was started by Nixon and continued by Reagan to court social conservatives, since there weren't enough fiscal conservatives to get a majority. They realized there were a large number of disaffected white Southern Democrats, mad at both parties, sitting out the vote. But dangle a few red meat issues in front of them - School prayer! Abortion! Gay marriage! And they were reliable voters.

Now the question is about the disaffected Berniecrats - did they sit home in 2016? Can they be rallied back? Or will they decide neither party speaks to them, and one party or another will find a hot-button issue to bring them over?

[marshwiggle]

Good point. And all the more reason for the Democratic Center and Right to ignore the Democratic Left.

I think that Sun_Worshiper's point is exactly why they can't ignore them. The last election proved that nearly 50% of the electorate will never vote for them. They can't ignore the Democratic Left and win.

Unless you totally disbelieve statistics, then you have to acknowledge that the electorate fits a Bell curve. Most people are clustered near the centre. Since both parties get close to 50% of the votes, the battle ground is the centre.  Getting all of the votes out at either fringe is going to be less valuable then getting a narrow wedge of votes from the other side of centre.

Moral: Parties need to be near the centre to have a hope. This is especially true in a two party system where votes can't be split.

I'll leave it to someone with specific knowledge to comment on the voter staying home phenomenon.