2024 Elections

[writingprof]

With President Biden entering his lame-duck period tomorrow, it's time to discuss the 2024 elections.

I see President Harris winning reelection with 37% of the popular vote and an electoral college blowout. Former-President Trump will win 35% of the popular vote. The other 28% will go to Senator Romney.

[Ruralguy]

The percentages might make sense if there's a viable third party candidate, though I doubt that would be Romney. Also, I think Trump really is one, though I admit I was wrong about him ever having a chance in the first place.

[dismalist]

Well, I am unable to name names, but while Trump may be sent away, the Trumpists will still be there in 2024, perhaps in greater numbers.

[Parasaurolophus]

it's time to discuss the 2024 elections.

Fuck me, what have you done?!

I see President Harris winning reelection with 37% of the popular vote and an electoral college blowout. Former-President Trump will win 35% of the popular vote. The other 28% will go to Senator Romney.

The percentages might make sense if there's a viable third party candidate, though I doubt that would be Romney. Also, I think Trump really is one, though I admit I was wrong about him ever having a chance in the first place.

At this point, I think Biden will just run again unless his decrepitude is too obvious to ignore (I think his glory-seeking will win out over sense and prompt him to try again). If he does, I currently think he will probably lose. And if it's Harris, I think she will have a tough fight of it.

As for Trump, I had him pegged to run and win in 2024 (despite his own decrepitude), but the Twitter ban has me reconsidering. If it sticks, then he needs to find a new magaphone. If it doesn't stick, we're fucked.

[Ruralguy]

Sorry, meant to say Trump is done. Yes, his followers, and more loosely, Republicans and others who might vote for him after reconsidering the recent issues will still all be around.

[pgher]

It's too soon.

[Ruralguy]

Considering that there's half a term to run out before either Biden or Harris or whoever becomes a candidate, yes, its too early.

[clean]

Cant We WAIT to AT LEAST get the new administration inaugurated? 

[ciao_yall]

It's too soon.

ROFLMAO

[mahagonny]

Kimberly Klacik is the closest thing to Trump I know of, and she looks like she's brimming with ambition. Cocky, vain, 'all American', confrontational, anti-government, pro-business, likes to go for the opponent's jugular, cult personality vibe....could be interesting.  I think the republicans are in a good position now because the democrats think they're in a good position, which means they try things and then after a couple years the voters say "OK. Enough of this." As others note, Trump had such an impact he will leave a void and an opportunity. And Trump in a black woman's body - most provocative, as a challenge to the 'blame whitey and get government to fix everything' movement.

[Sun_Worshiper]

The only sure thing about 2024 is that Biden will be the Democratic nominee if he is healthy (far from assured). Beyond that, it is all guess work. How many people in 2012 thought Trump would be the nominee?

[Sun_Worshiper]

Kimberly Klacik is the closest thing to Trump I know of, and she looks like she's brimming with ambition. Cocky, vain, 'all American', confrontational, anti-government, pro-business, likes to go for the opponent's jugular, cult personality vibe....could be interesting.  I think the republicans are in a good position now because the democrats think they're in a good position, which means they try things and then after a couple years the voters say "OK. Enough of this." As others note, Trump had such an impact he will leave a void and an opportunity. And Trump in a black woman's body - most provocative, as a challenge to the 'blame whitey and get government to fix everything' movement.

I strongly disagree with the notion that Republicans are in a good position. Trumpism has failed electorally, but so has Romney-style traditional conservatism, so the party lacks a clear party identity or a platform that appeals to voters. The lunatic wing of the party is arguably a majority, and certainly their ideas are the ones that most electrify the base. As for Kimberly Klacik, she has none of Trump's celebrity or name-brand recognition, which were nontrivial factors contributing to his success, and I hate to break it to you but a black woman is not going to do well at the national level in today's Republican party.

Democrats have problems too, not least of which is that Biden will be 82 yrs old in November 2024, but moderates like Harris and Mayor Pete are popular within the party and have potential crossover appeal.

[mahagonny]

Kimberly Klacik is the closest thing to Trump I know of, and she looks like she's brimming with ambition. Cocky, vain, 'all American', confrontational, anti-government, pro-business, likes to go for the opponent's jugular, cult personality vibe....could be interesting.  I think the republicans are in a good position now because the democrats think they're in a good position, which means they try things and then after a couple years the voters say "OK. Enough of this." As others note, Trump had such an impact he will leave a void and an opportunity. And Trump in a black woman's body - most provocative, as a challenge to the 'blame whitey and get government to fix everything' movement.

I strongly disagree with the notion that Republicans are in a good position. Trumpism has failed electorally, but so has Romney-style traditional conservatism, so the party lacks a clear party identity or a platform that appeals to voters. The lunatic wing of the party is arguably a majority, and certainly their ideas are the ones that most electrify the base. As for Kimberly Klacik, she has none of Trump's celebrity or name-brand recognition, which were nontrivial factors contributing to his success, and I hate to break it to you but a black woman is not going to do well at the national level in today's Republican party.

Democrats have problems too, not least of which is that Biden will be 82 yrs old in November 2024, but moderates like Harris and Mayor Pete are popular within the party and have potential crossover appeal.

The appeal is they are not the democrats. And I think you are wrong about a black woman winning the republican nomination. The theory that many many republicans are racist (or even mysogynist - you don't actually think that do you, remember the love affair between Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, like 40 years ago?) derives from policies that democrats consider racist, such as handling immigration differently, no more government funded abortions, but that's not racism. That's policy difference.  Well, we don't know what will happen. It's fun to speculate.

[Sun_Worshiper]

Kimberly Klacik is the closest thing to Trump I know of, and she looks like she's brimming with ambition. Cocky, vain, 'all American', confrontational, anti-government, pro-business, likes to go for the opponent's jugular, cult personality vibe....could be interesting.  I think the republicans are in a good position now because the democrats think they're in a good position, which means they try things and then after a couple years the voters say "OK. Enough of this." As others note, Trump had such an impact he will leave a void and an opportunity. And Trump in a black woman's body - most provocative, as a challenge to the 'blame whitey and get government to fix everything' movement.

I strongly disagree with the notion that Republicans are in a good position. Trumpism has failed electorally, but so has Romney-style traditional conservatism, so the party lacks a clear party identity or a platform that appeals to voters. The lunatic wing of the party is arguably a majority, and certainly their ideas are the ones that most electrify the base. As for Kimberly Klacik, she has none of Trump's celebrity or name-brand recognition, which were nontrivial factors contributing to his success, and I hate to break it to you but a black woman is not going to do well at the national level in today's Republican party.

Democrats have problems too, not least of which is that Biden will be 82 yrs old in November 2024, but moderates like Harris and Mayor Pete are popular within the party and have potential crossover appeal.

The appeal is they are not the democrats. And I think you are wrong about a black woman winning the republican nomination. The theory that many many republicans are racist (or even mysogynist - you don't actually think that do you, remember the love affair between Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, like 40 years ago?) derives from policies that democrats consider racist, such as handling immigration differently, no more government funded abortions, but that's not racism. That's policy difference.  Well, we don't know what will happen. It's fun to speculate.

Not really. Republicans are the party of confederate flags, the Southern strategy, and Birtherism. Trump was openly racist and an uncomfortable number of Republicans love him for it. Not to say that all Republicans are racist, but a sizable portion of the base - enough to prevent a black woman from getting the nomination. 

[mahagonny]

Not really. Republicans are the party of confederate flags, the Southern strategy, and Birtherism. Trump was openly racist and an uncomfortable number of Republicans love him for it. Not to say that all Republicans are racist, but a sizable portion of the base - enough to prevent a black woman from getting the nomination.

You do realize, don't you, that this sounds like you think Trump got more black votes than any other republican presidential candidate, while being more openly racist and then capitalizing on that. It just sounds like there's something going on that you are not seeing. Hey, I'm not spinning it. I'm just understanding what you wrote.