2024 Elections

[Sun_Worshiper]

Not really. Republicans are the party of confederate flags, the Southern strategy, and Birtherism. Trump was openly racist and an uncomfortable number of Republicans love him for it. Not to say that all Republicans are racist, but a sizable portion of the base - enough to prevent a black woman from getting the nomination.

You do realize, don't you, that this sounds like you think Trump got more black votes than any other republican presidential candidate, while being more racist.

Trump won 12% of the black vote, which is nothing to brag about. This despite his open racism: He tells Congresspeople of color to go back to their country, he spread the idiotic and racist birther conspiracy theory, he said a Mexican judge can't give him a fair trial (amusingly because Trump himself is so racist), he courts racist militias, I could go on. Only a fool would deny that he is a racist and that an uncomfortable number of his supporters are racist.

And of course the data shows evidence that the Republican electorate is less comfortable with racial diversity than Democrats or independents: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/19/republicans-your-racism-is-showing/

Respond to the specific points I'm putting in front of you, including points about Birtherism and the Southern Strategy, or don't bother to respond at all. This thread has already been derailed (partly my fault).

[kaysixteen]

With Trump not yet sent packing, though we be counting the hours, let's take a pass on humoring the crazy old uncles of the fora with indulging their desire to debate which nuts the GOP may anoint in '24, and/or why the GOP is not racist, etc.   It'll get old realllllllllyyyyy fast,

[lightning]

With President Biden entering his lame-duck period tomorrow, it's time to discuss the 2024 elections.

I see President Harris winning reelection with 37% of the popular vote and an electoral college blowout. Former-President Trump will win 35% of the popular vote. The other 28% will go to Senator Romney.

It might be all hot air, but reports say that Trump is thinking of starting a third party called the "Patriot" party. If Trump really wants to remain a political force, that's his best option. He would take a lot of the Alex Jones/Rush Limbaugh, white supremacists, militia separatist crazies with him, but the fiscal conservatives (what few are left), the small-government proponents, the main line Christians, the quiet closet xenophobes, the frat boys, and the conservative intellectuals who follow the path of George Will/Buckley Jr. etc. will comprise the old Republican party. Neither will be viable unless the Progressives split off from the Democrats, but that will never happen because unlike the crazies on the far right of the Republican party, the Progressives on the far left of the moderate Democrats, have no interest in invading the Capitol and hanging their vice president.

[mahagonny]

Not really. Republicans are the party of confederate flags, the Southern strategy, and Birtherism. Trump was openly racist and an uncomfortable number of Republicans love him for it. Not to say that all Republicans are racist, but a sizable portion of the base - enough to prevent a black woman from getting the nomination.

You do realize, don't you, that this sounds like you think Trump got more black votes than any other republican presidential candidate, while being more racist.

Trump won 12% of the black vote, which is nothing to brag about.

Congratulations to Biden for winning the black vote. If Trump gets 12% of the black vote in 2020 as opposed to 8% in 2016 and Romney even less in 2012 then he has something to brag to republicans about. I think what some democrats miss is the way to make friends with the black voter is not always to see if you can talk about racism the loudest. Or maybe they just figure they don't need that relatively small chunk of black votes. If they think that way, I would expect that chunk to keep growing.


                                                         

[writingprof]

. . . moderates like Harris . . .

Um,

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/kamala_harris/412678/report-card/2019.

I suppose she is moderate if your baseline is Pol Pot.

[Descartes]

Kimberly Klacik is the closest thing to Trump I know of, and she looks like she's brimming with ambition. Cocky, vain, 'all American', confrontational, anti-government, pro-business, likes to go for the opponent's jugular, cult personality vibe....could be interesting.  I think the republicans are in a good position now because the democrats think they're in a good position, which means they try things and then after a couple years the voters say "OK. Enough of this." As others note, Trump had such an impact he will leave a void and an opportunity. And Trump in a black woman's body - most provocative, as a challenge to the 'blame whitey and get government to fix everything' movement.

I strongly disagree with the notion that Republicans are in a good position. Trumpism has failed electorally, but so has Romney-style traditional conservatism, so the party lacks a clear party identity or a platform that appeals to voters. The lunatic wing of the party is arguably a majority, and certainly their ideas are the ones that most electrify the base. As for Kimberly Klacik, she has none of Trump's celebrity or name-brand recognition, which were nontrivial factors contributing to his success, and I hate to break it to you but a black woman is not going to do well at the national level in today's Republican party.

Democrats have problems too, not least of which is that Biden will be 82 yrs old in November 2024, but moderates like Harris and Mayor Pete are popular within the party and have potential crossover appeal.

I don't know how you can say that "Trumpism has failed."  Objectively, it seems to me that it is a real force - enough to win in 2016, and edged out only slightly by record voter turnout fueled by more intense than usual hatred of the other side by the Democrats and progressives.

[Sun_Worshiper]

Kimberly Klacik is the closest thing to Trump I know of, and she looks like she's brimming with ambition. Cocky, vain, 'all American', confrontational, anti-government, pro-business, likes to go for the opponent's jugular, cult personality vibe....could be interesting.  I think the republicans are in a good position now because the democrats think they're in a good position, which means they try things and then after a couple years the voters say "OK. Enough of this." As others note, Trump had such an impact he will leave a void and an opportunity. And Trump in a black woman's body - most provocative, as a challenge to the 'blame whitey and get government to fix everything' movement.

I strongly disagree with the notion that Republicans are in a good position. Trumpism has failed electorally, but so has Romney-style traditional conservatism, so the party lacks a clear party identity or a platform that appeals to voters. The lunatic wing of the party is arguably a majority, and certainly their ideas are the ones that most electrify the base. As for Kimberly Klacik, she has none of Trump's celebrity or name-brand recognition, which were nontrivial factors contributing to his success, and I hate to break it to you but a black woman is not going to do well at the national level in today's Republican party.

Democrats have problems too, not least of which is that Biden will be 82 yrs old in November 2024, but moderates like Harris and Mayor Pete are popular within the party and have potential crossover appeal.

I don't know how you can say that "Trumpism has failed."  Objectively, it seems to me that it is a real force - enough to win in 2016, and edged out only slightly by record voter turnout fueled by more intense than usual hatred of the other side by the Democrats and progressives.

Look at the data: Trump won by a hair the 2016 contest, while losing the popular vote by a wide margin, then Republicans went on to lose the House in 2018, nearly every special election, the Senate in 2020, and the Presidency in 2020 (by an even wider popular vote margin - despite turning out his base). Hard to look at that record and say it was an electoral success.

Not really. Republicans are the party of confederate flags, the Southern strategy, and Birtherism. Trump was openly racist and an uncomfortable number of Republicans love him for it. Not to say that all Republicans are racist, but a sizable portion of the base - enough to prevent a black woman from getting the nomination.

You do realize, don't you, that this sounds like you think Trump got more black votes than any other republican presidential candidate, while being more racist.

Trump won 12% of the black vote, which is nothing to brag about.

Congratulations to Biden for winning the black vote. If Trump gets 12% of the black vote in 2020 as opposed to 8% in 2016 and Romney even less in 2012 then he has something to brag to republicans about. I think what some democrats miss is the way to make friends with the black voter is not always to see if you can talk about racism the loudest. Or maybe they just figure they don't need that relatively small chunk of black votes. If they think that way, I would expect that chunk to keep growing.

He can brag that he has the distinction of being the first President to lose the house, senate, and presidency since 1932, while also losing the black vote by a wide margin.

. . . moderates like Harris . . .

Um,

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/kamala_harris/412678/report-card/2019.

I suppose she is moderate if your baseline is Pol Pot.

Fair data points, although absurd and pointlessly provocative to compare her to Pol Pot.

With Trump not yet sent packing, though we be counting the hours, let's take a pass on humoring the crazy old uncles of the fora with indulging their desire to debate which nuts the GOP may anoint in '24, and/or why the GOP is not racist, etc.   It'll get old realllllllllyyyyy fast,

You are right, I should stop.

[jimbogumbo]

More for 2022, but I think it will have an impact on 2024: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/535669-portman-wont-run-for-reelection

[Sun_Worshiper]

More for 2022, but I think it will have an impact on 2024: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/535669-portman-wont-run-for-reelection

I'm not a fan, but we do need some sane Republicans in the Senate.

[larryc]

The 2024 race will be Kamala Harris versus Tucker Carlson. You read it here first.

I fear that Tucker may win.

[mahagonny]

The 2024 race will be Kamala Harris versus Tucker Carlson. You read it here first.

I fear that Tucker may win.

Very interesting. Two extremes. And I take it from this you expect Joe Biden to have no success bringing us together. Would that mean he's not smart or deft enough or that he won't be trying? And there will be no real conversations in the next four years between the two parties, just fencing.
Loury and McWhorter on how the two sides cannot talk to each other: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tP2MTZJnP8

[Sun_Worshiper]

The 2024 race will be Kamala Harris versus Tucker Carlson. You read it here first.

I fear that Tucker may win.

I know there has been lots of speculation in the press, but is there any indication that Tucker actually wants to run for President?

[evil_physics_witchcraft]

The 2024 race will be Kamala Harris versus Tucker Carlson. You read it here first.

I fear that Tucker may win.

Ok. Now I'm going to have nightmares tonight.

[dismalist]

The 2024 race will be Kamala Harris versus Tucker Carlson. You read it here first.

I fear that Tucker may win.

I would certainly hope so. Think of the sheer entertainment value. :-)

[ciao_yall]

The 2024 race will be Kamala Harris versus Tucker Carlson. You read it here first.

I fear that Tucker may win.

I would certainly hope so. Think of the sheer entertainment value. :-)

I hope he runs and stays in the race long enough to revive Randy Rainbow's flagging career (in 2023) then things get boring again.