Canadian Report on the Labour Market Transition of PhD Graduates

[Caracal]

Would-be major league jocks, rock stars, and movie/ tv stars are perhaps somewhat comparable to would-be tt humanities profs, with the stunning exception that *none of these former positions* require post-secondary education (and some hs dropouts, like the famous metal star that was a hs classmate of mine, before dropping out in his junior year to pursue his music career, succeed wildly without even a hs diploma).   Thus, the opportunity costs for failure to achieve are much less than for the failed tt aspirant.

I dunno. Is it really much better to be 24 without a college degree when you wash out of the minor leagues than it is to be 31 with a BA and a PHD without a job in academia? In soccer thats why you see europeans come to the US to play in college. Kids who are good enough go into youth academies starting in their early teens. If you've been in one of those programs for five years and are at the point where you'd transition into being a full time professional, some kids start realizing that this might be a really risky proposition. Going to college in the US on a scholarship is a way of hedging your bets. People do sometimes come back to Europe after they finish college and get signed, but if that doesn't work out you have a degree and all of the advantages that come with it.

[Kron3007]

Would-be major league jocks, rock stars, and movie/ tv stars are perhaps somewhat comparable to would-be tt humanities profs, with the stunning exception that *none of these former positions* require post-secondary education (and some hs dropouts, like the famous metal star that was a hs classmate of mine, before dropping out in his junior year to pursue his music career, succeed wildly without even a hs diploma).   Thus, the opportunity costs for failure to achieve are much less than for the failed tt aspirant.

I dunno. Is it really much better to be 24 without a college degree when you wash out of the minor leagues than it is to be 31 with a BA and a PHD without a job in academia? In soccer thats why you see europeans come to the US to play in college. Kids who are good enough go into youth academies starting in their early teens. If you've been in one of those programs for five years and are at the point where you'd transition into being a full time professional, some kids start realizing that this might be a really risky proposition. Going to college in the US on a scholarship is a way of hedging your bets. People do sometimes come back to Europe after they finish college and get signed, but if that doesn't work out you have a degree and all of the advantages that come with it.

Yeah, I dont see how that matters. 

The point is that you are making a decision to dedicate the next X years of your life to chase your dream knowing full well that the chances of success are low.  If this is an acceptable risk to you, that's fine, but you will ultimately need to live with that choice.  In the case of the minors, you dont need a degree, but you do need to demonstrate skill in your field that was obtained by investing time playing the game.
   

[Hibush]

Would-be major league jocks, rock stars, and movie/ tv stars are perhaps somewhat comparable to would-be tt humanities profs, with the stunning exception that *none of these former positions* require post-secondary education (and some hs dropouts, like the famous metal star that was a hs classmate of mine, before dropping out in his junior year to pursue his music career, succeed wildly without even a hs diploma).   Thus, the opportunity costs for failure to achieve are much less than for the failed tt aspirant.

I dunno. Is it really much better to be 24 without a college degree when you wash out of the minor leagues than it is to be 31 with a BA and a PHD without a job in academia? In soccer thats why you see europeans come to the US to play in college. Kids who are good enough go into youth academies starting in their early teens. If you've been in one of those programs for five years and are at the point where you'd transition into being a full time professional, some kids start realizing that this might be a really risky proposition. Going to college in the US on a scholarship is a way of hedging your bets. People do sometimes come back to Europe after they finish college and get signed, but if that doesn't work out you have a degree and all of the advantages that come with it.

Elite US Youth soccer can be as big a time and money sink as a PhD, with a comparable opportunity cost--albeit earlier in life--and similarly dismal pro prospects. There are lots of trainer and parents who eagerly reinforce how important it is to keep up and get ahead within that world; the club leaders and coaches depend on that for a living. The parallels are strong.

[Durchlässigkeitsbeiwert]

I dunno. Is it really much better to be 24 without a college degree when you wash out of the minor leagues than it is to be 31 with a BA and a PHD without a job in academia?

Do you advertise this to incoming students?
"By the end of our program most of you will not be much worse off than a 24 year old without a college degree"

[marshwiggle]

I dunno. Is it really much better to be 24 without a college degree when you wash out of the minor leagues than it is to be 31 with a BA and a PHD without a job in academia?

Do you advertise this to incoming students?
"By the end of our program most of you will not be much worse off than a 24 year old without a college degree"

"and at the age of 31, with $X000 of student debt"

[apl68]

I dunno. Is it really much better to be 24 without a college degree when you wash out of the minor leagues than it is to be 31 with a BA and a PHD without a job in academia?

Do you advertise this to incoming students?
"By the end of our program most of you will not be much worse off than a 24 year old without a college degree"

When you put it like that....

Actually a PhD without a job in academia is still in better shape with regard to career prospects than most 24-year-olds without a college degree, IF the PhD has not racked up a great deal of debt in the process (As Marsh notes below).  That admittedly seems like cold consolation when you realize that you're going to have to start looking for a Plan B career.

[Caracal]

I dunno. Is it really much better to be 24 without a college degree when you wash out of the minor leagues than it is to be 31 with a BA and a PHD without a job in academia?

Do you advertise this to incoming students?
"By the end of our program most of you will not be much worse off than a 24 year old without a college degree"

"and at the age of 31, with $X000 of student debt"

Part of the problem is that the worse the school is at placing students, the less support they usually give them. I also suspect that at lower ranked programs, students are more likely to be naive about the job market.

All of this stuff is codetermined. When I told my undergrad advisor I was interested in applying to grad school, the first thing he told me was that I should think really hard about it and only go forward if I really thought I would be ok if I never ended up with a tenure track job at the end. When I came back and said I still wanted to apply, he told me that I should, under no circumstances, take an admissions offer that didn't come with guaranteed full funding for at least four years. So, it makes sense that places without full funding, which are usually less prestigious, are going to have more students who didn't get that advice.

[marshwiggle]

I dunno. Is it really much better to be 24 without a college degree when you wash out of the minor leagues than it is to be 31 with a BA and a PHD without a job in academia?

Do you advertise this to incoming students?
"By the end of our program most of you will not be much worse off than a 24 year old without a college degree"

When you put it like that....

Actually a PhD without a job in academia is still in better shape with regard to career prospects than most 24-year-olds without a college degree, IF the PhD has not racked up a great deal of debt in the process (As Marsh notes below).  That admittedly seems like cold consolation when you realize that you're going to have to start looking for a Plan B career.

Although the 24 year old still has 7 more years of earning potential. Unless that's basically at minimum wage, the cummulative earnings will require the PhD to find a significantly higher paying job to catch up in a reasonable time. (And again, if there's debt, it becomes much more problematic.) If the 24 year old can even make very modest retirement contributions for those 7 years, that's going to give a big head start on the PhD.

[Kron3007]

I dunno. Is it really much better to be 24 without a college degree when you wash out of the minor leagues than it is to be 31 with a BA and a PHD without a job in academia?

Do you advertise this to incoming students?
"By the end of our program most of you will not be much worse off than a 24 year old without a college degree"

When you put it like that....

Actually a PhD without a job in academia is still in better shape with regard to career prospects than most 24-year-olds without a college degree, IF the PhD has not racked up a great deal of debt in the process (As Marsh notes below).  That admittedly seems like cold consolation when you realize that you're going to have to start looking for a Plan B career.

Although the 24 year old still has 7 more years of earning potential. Unless that's basically at minimum wage, the cummulative earnings will require the PhD to find a significantly higher paying job to catch up in a reasonable time. (And again, if there's debt, it becomes much more problematic.) If the 24 year old can even make very modest retirement contributions for those 7 years, that's going to give a big head start on the PhD.

This is all true, and a good reason that financial literacy should be a much bigger focus in high school education so that people can make more informed decisions.  Many people see professor salaries and think it looks really good, maybe even think they are over paid, but if you actually look at life time earnings the math looks a little different.  This is especially true when you factor in purchasing a house at a younger age etc. 

[Caracal]

I dunno. Is it really much better to be 24 without a college degree when you wash out of the minor leagues than it is to be 31 with a BA and a PHD without a job in academia?

Do you advertise this to incoming students?
"By the end of our program most of you will not be much worse off than a 24 year old without a college degree"

When you put it like that....

Actually a PhD without a job in academia is still in better shape with regard to career prospects than most 24-year-olds without a college degree, IF the PhD has not racked up a great deal of debt in the process (As Marsh notes below).  That admittedly seems like cold consolation when you realize that you're going to have to start looking for a Plan B career.

Although the 24 year old still has 7 more years of earning potential. Unless that's basically at minimum wage, the cummulative earnings will require the PhD to find a significantly higher paying job to catch up in a reasonable time. (And again, if there's debt, it becomes much more problematic.) If the 24 year old can even make very modest retirement contributions for those 7 years, that's going to give a big head start on the PhD.

The vast majority of people who are trying to find a job at 24 without a college degree are not going to be putting money in retirement accounts anytime soon.

[marshwiggle]

I dunno. Is it really much better to be 24 without a college degree when you wash out of the minor leagues than it is to be 31 with a BA and a PHD without a job in academia?

Do you advertise this to incoming students?
"By the end of our program most of you will not be much worse off than a 24 year old without a college degree"

When you put it like that....

Actually a PhD without a job in academia is still in better shape with regard to career prospects than most 24-year-olds without a college degree, IF the PhD has not racked up a great deal of debt in the process (As Marsh notes below).  That admittedly seems like cold consolation when you realize that you're going to have to start looking for a Plan B career.

Although the 24 year old still has 7 more years of earning potential. Unless that's basically at minimum wage, the cummulative earnings will require the PhD to find a significantly higher paying job to catch up in a reasonable time. (And again, if there's debt, it becomes much more problematic.) If the 24 year old can even make very modest retirement contributions for those 7 years, that's going to give a big head start on the PhD.

The vast majority of people who are trying to find a job at 24 without a college degree are not going to be putting money in retirement accounts anytime soon.

To hear all of the people complaining about their adjunct life, neither are they.

[Durchlässigkeitsbeiwert]

Do you advertise this to incoming students?
"By the end of our program most of you will not be much worse off than a 24 year old without a college degree"

When you put it like that....

Actually a PhD without a job in academia is still in better shape with regard to career prospects than most 24-year-olds without a college degree, IF the PhD has not racked up a great deal of debt in the process (As Marsh notes below).  That admittedly seems like cold consolation when you realize that you're going to have to start looking for a Plan B career.

My point wasn't about who gets its better (though, as others have mentioned, in addition to immediate earning potential one need to consider 7-year opportunity cost).
Something is very wrong if the starting point for comparison is a "24-year-old without a college degree" given that the actual starting point for PhD is more like "24-year-old with a college degree"

[Hibush]

This is all true, and a good reason that financial literacy should be a much bigger focus in high school education so that people can make more informed decisions.  Many people see professor salaries and think it looks really good, maybe even think they are over paid, but if you actually look at life time earnings the math looks a little different.  This is especially true when you factor in purchasing a house at a younger age etc.

I got a nice look at this in high school, in a class called "Family Life Education." The teacher did the math for us on fixing and flipping or renting houses rather than going to college. This was a school where the students were choosing among college, and where houses increased in price briskly. Becoming a landlord at 19 and thereby starting a real-estate empire built both equity and cash flow faster that college, and college never caught up. That was eye-opening, but not persuasive to those college bound for other reasons.

[Kron3007]

This is all true, and a good reason that financial literacy should be a much bigger focus in high school education so that people can make more informed decisions.  Many people see professor salaries and think it looks really good, maybe even think they are over paid, but if you actually look at life time earnings the math looks a little different.  This is especially true when you factor in purchasing a house at a younger age etc.

I got a nice look at this in high school, in a class called "Family Life Education." The teacher did the math for us on fixing and flipping or renting houses rather than going to college. This was a school where the students were choosing among college, and where houses increased in price briskly. Becoming a landlord at 19 and thereby starting a real-estate empire built both equity and cash flow faster that college, and college never caught up. That was eye-opening, but not persuasive to those college bound for other reasons.

That's great.  I think our high school had something like this but it was aimed at a much lower level (financial budgeting etc) and none of the students planning to go to university would have taken it.  It should really be mandatory.

[Kron3007]

Do you advertise this to incoming students?
"By the end of our program most of you will not be much worse off than a 24 year old without a college degree"

When you put it like that....

Actually a PhD without a job in academia is still in better shape with regard to career prospects than most 24-year-olds without a college degree, IF the PhD has not racked up a great deal of debt in the process (As Marsh notes below).  That admittedly seems like cold consolation when you realize that you're going to have to start looking for a Plan B career.

My point wasn't about who gets its better (though, as others have mentioned, in addition to immediate earning potential one need to consider 7-year opportunity cost).
Something is very wrong if the starting point for comparison is a "24-year-old without a college degree" given that the actual starting point for PhD is more like "24-year-old with a college degree"

It dosnt really matter what the starting point is.  The decision is whether or not you should spend the next X years on something with low pay that will likely not lead to a better job (but there is a chance).  Spending 4 years when you are 20 vs 4 years when you are 24 is still 4 years.