Colleges in Dire Financial Straits

[Hibush]

I suppose I am a nerd who thinks of education as much more than a business or job-training model. 

I think of healthy education as more like the church or healthcare or something: essential for a civilized society. 

Education is indeed essential for a civilized society.

The National Endowment for the Arts makes the same argument. What do you think of their tag line? "Because a great nation deserves great art."

That tag line assumes that we agree and insist that this is a great nation. Good positive reinforcement. It also declares that we deserve this. It is a reward. We have it coming.

Given how strongly many legislators disagree with the logic, the fact that the NEA survives at all is testimony to its effectiveness.

[spork]

Looks like deposits are running about what they were a few years ago, when we missed our target for the incoming class by more than ten percent.

True, but you can't compare this year to any prior year.

[. . .]

Actually you can. And should. Because too many higher ed institutions ignore long-term trends by engaging in optimism bias and assuming "bad years" are one-off outliers. You might be surprised at the number of colleges and universities in the USA that haven't returned to pre-2008 recession enrollment levels.

Bradley University is planning for a 25-35% drop in revenue next year:

https://www.pjstar.com/news/20200406/bradley-university-weighing-40m-in-cuts-after-coronavirus-effect-on-budget

It already had an $8 million deficit for the current fiscal year and has so far had to refund an additional $5 million due to the pandemic.

NECHE regarding Pine Manor College: "Owing to the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19), the College's financial situation has become uncertain, such that it cannot confirm that it can sustain full operations at the current levels beyond the current academic year."

From FY 2009 through FY 2018, Pine Manor has run deficits in seven out of ten years. Its undergraduate FTE fell by 17 percent between 2006-07 and 2017-18. This Boston Globe article cites current enrollment, which may not be FTE, as 360, which is a decline of 29 percent.

[apl68]

Looks like deposits are running about what they were a few years ago, when we missed our target for the incoming class by more than ten percent.

True, but you can't compare this year to any prior year.

[. . .]

Actually you can. And should. Because too many higher ed institutions ignore long-term trends by engaging in optimism bias and assuming "bad years" are one-off outliers. You might be surprised at the number of colleges and universities in the USA that haven't returned to pre-2008 recession enrollment levels.

Bradley University is planning for a 25-35% drop in revenue next year:

https://www.pjstar.com/news/20200406/bradley-university-weighing-40m-in-cuts-after-coronavirus-effect-on-budget

It already had an $8 million deficit for the current fiscal year and has so far had to refund an additional $5 million due to the pandemic.

NECHE regarding Pine Manor College: "Owing to the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19), the College's financial situation has become uncertain, such that it cannot confirm that it can sustain full operations at the current levels beyond the current academic year."

From FY 2009 through FY 2018, Pine Manor has run deficits in seven out of ten years. Its undergraduate FTE fell by 17 percent between 2006-07 and 2017-18. This Boston Globe article cites current enrollment, which may not be FTE, as 360, which is a decline of 29 percent.

I recall on the old "Dire Financial Straits" thread seeing that Pine Manor was in bad trouble a year or two ago.  It wouldn't be at all surprising if the current crisis proved too much for it.  At least they're being honest about it.

[Wahoo Redux]

However, that's one concrete example of the fallacy of asserting that only a liberal arts education or a good general education with a healthy dollop of humanities for everyone is doing something fabulous to prepare people for a changing life after college.

Engineering, nursing, and K-12 teaching are professional programs that usually only check the box on general education and often have almost no free electives.

Anybody see the physics student from Hendrix College discuss "liberal arts" on College Jeopardy tonight?

[risenanew]

I'm sorry if this is a little off-topic but I do have a general question about closing colleges.

Has there been a recent trend (say, over the last five years) of public community colleges closing? I've read several pages of this thread and it seems as though most closed colleges are private four-years. Have I missed out on closings among two-year colleges?

And if two-year colleges seem less likely to close than four-year colleges, why might that be the case? It is because two-year colleges are more likely to be public than vulnerable four-years, because two-years are more nimble in answer to student needs/demands, or some other reason?

Thanks ahead of time for your help in understanding how likely two-year community colleges are to close... I'm working in a medium-sized (roughly 10,000 students) public two-year community college and am trying to figure out how vulnerable we may be in the future!

[Hegemony]

If it's a public two-year college, presumably it is not as vulnerable to a complete loss of funding as a private community college. All the private two-year colleges I know about closed some time ago.

[mamselle]

I'm wondering....horrible cynical alerts ahead...if the issue for the states whose legislatures lodge a majority of semi-philistine anti-education warriors is that CCs fulfill their idea that "OK, maybe people need some post-high-school training to keep 'em off the dole, but two years is enough."

They may view offerings like criminal justice as training for prison wardens, and English as a source for cute little admins, and beyond that, if you need anything so high-falutin' as a 4-year program, you can pay for it yourself.

Sorry. But I fear it may be so...

M.

[polly_mer]

I'm wondering....horrible cynical alerts ahead...if the issue for the states whose legislatures lodge a majority of semi-philistine anti-education warriors is that CCs fulfill their idea that "OK, maybe people need some post-high-school training to keep 'em off the dole, but two years is enough."

They may view offerings like criminal justice as training for prison wardens, and English as a source for cute little admins, and beyond that, if you need anything so high-falutin' as a 4-year program, you can pay for it yourself.

Sorry. But I fear it may be so...

M.

I don't worry at all about an outcome that is only logical if one conflates all non-humanities postsecondary education with essentially a welding certificate.  Again, I primarily encounter this mindset among faculty in certain fields where they trying hard to save their jobs by insisting that only a liberal arts education with a heavy dollop of the humanities is a valid postsecondary education.

One reason I expect the general education requirements to go away or be dramatically transformed is how many educated people in specific areas we as a society need that are now 4-year-in-name-only degrees with 130+ credits required.  Cutting out unnecessary-to-the-profession general education requirements will free up more space for internships/co-ops/professional electives.  I am far from alone in having substantial experience trying to both preserve the necessary education for the profession while being frustrated by including checkbox requirements that enforce education that should have been done in K-12 and/or are so clearly just job preservation for faculty in certain fields.

I do expect many more undergraduate humanities programs to be cut as it becomes even more clear how few seats we need nationally.  For example, last year, about 45k English bachelor degrees were awarded and there's no reason to expect that to go up in the coming years.  Consolidating the programs into fewer institutions is a way to continue to meet the student demand while having good programs worth attending.  However, that will very likely mean fewer over all faculty jobs in English.

[polly_mer]

Thanks ahead of time for your help in understanding how likely two-year community colleges are to close... I'm working in a medium-sized (roughly 10,000 students) public two-year community college and am trying to figure out how vulnerable we may be in the future!

What does the institutional resource situation look like? 

Are you limited to attending one regional conference per year, does the CC sometimes push new enrollment to the next term because the seats are all full, or are you providing your own bucket to catch the rain coming into the classroom?  The last one indicates that one should be looking for a new job now because resources are about to get tighter.

How many other CCs are in your same geographic area? 

I don't see a lot of flat out closures along the lines of "It's April and our last term forever will end July 1".  I would, though, be worried about consolidation within the state system that means a branch campus become a twig becomes a building with administrators who help complete paperwork and turn on the distance ed system at the appropriate times.

What is your balance between programs that require a mostly physical presence and are offered only by your institution within a 2-hr drive and programs that are offered practically everywhere with online being a reasonable thing to do? 

Your auto mechanic courses will probably keep going.  Your general education classes that have no lab work are likely to be slowly transitioned away.  Again, the campus is unlikely to just announce one day that this is the last term, but the slow trickle of courses and programs quietly being reduced is probably going to accelerate this year.

Overall, I don't expect a lot of public community colleges to flat out close.

I do expect their missions to change to be more vo-tech or, in rare cases, expand up to specific bachelor degrees to meet local need.  I can absolutely see RN programs expand to be BSN and to perhaps acquire teaching certificate programs for those who already have a bachelor degree in something.  With the mission change, I can see specific faculty jobs being eliminated as no longer supporting the new mission.  Were I employed by a CC that isn't already in dire financial straits, I would be much more worried about how the mission change will affect my job than the institution itself just flat out closing.

[polly_mer]

However, that's one concrete example of the fallacy of asserting that only a liberal arts education or a good general education with a healthy dollop of humanities for everyone is doing something fabulous to prepare people for a changing life after college.

Engineering, nursing, and K-12 teaching are professional programs that usually only check the box on general education and often have almost no free electives.

Anybody see the physics student from Hendrix College discuss "liberal arts" on College Jeopardy tonight?

Physics is a liberal arts field.  That's why he could major in it at Hendrix College. 

I am a member of the physics community and the now-deafening discussion on the education side is how to get students to major in physics, how to preserve the small physics departments at the liberal arts colleges, and how to prevent physics from becoming engineering as changes are made to the curriculum.  There's a parallel worry regarding the lack overall of physics teachers in high school as well as what happens when the "physics teacher" is highly-qualified-according-to-the-state by virtue of having taken three (3) undergraduate classes in physics and passing a very easy test.

Many times, the discussions about the future of physics as a standalone field parallel the discussions I see regarding the humanities.  Physics had under 9k bachelor degrees awarded annually in the US in recent years.  The number awarded to underrepresented minorities is sometimes under 100.

A few years ago, the American Physical Society had a vote on whether to change its name to the American Physics Society.  The vote came back a resounding no because: most of us are doing physics-related research, but do not have physics degrees and aren't housed in physics programs; this is our professional home so don't exclude us based on a word. 

We love physics, but we are not physicists as a primary identity.  A similar idea holds true for those of us who are nerds, value education, and love books, but don't feel a need to cling to the identity of English professor as the only people who have those ideas.

[apl68]

I'm wondering....horrible cynical alerts ahead...if the issue for the states whose legislatures lodge a majority of semi-philistine anti-education warriors is that CCs fulfill their idea that "OK, maybe people need some post-high-school training to keep 'em off the dole, but two years is enough."

They may view offerings like criminal justice as training for prison wardens, and English as a source for cute little admins, and beyond that, if you need anything so high-falutin' as a 4-year program, you can pay for it yourself.

Sorry. But I fear it may be so...

M.

I think that's unnecessarily cynical.  Bachelor's-level college education and post-secondary trade-school education are both entirely legitimate needs for society.  There are those who fail to see the value of the former who nonetheless genuinely understand and care about the latter.  And, whether we like it or not, there are many academically-disinclined members of our society who need the latter much more than the former.  I'm glad that there are legislators who understand that they need support too.

[apl68]

Thanks ahead of time for your help in understanding how likely two-year community colleges are to close... I'm working in a medium-sized (roughly 10,000 students) public two-year community college and am trying to figure out how vulnerable we may be in the future!

What does the institutional resource situation look like? 

Are you limited to attending one regional conference per year, does the CC sometimes push new enrollment to the next term because the seats are all full, or are you providing your own bucket to catch the rain coming into the classroom?  The last one indicates that one should be looking for a new job now because resources are about to get tighter.

How many other CCs are in your same geographic area? 

I don't see a lot of flat out closures along the lines of "It's April and our last term forever will end July 1".  I would, though, be worried about consolidation within the state system that means a branch campus become a twig becomes a building with administrators who help complete paperwork and turn on the distance ed system at the appropriate times.

What is your balance between programs that require a mostly physical presence and are offered only by your institution within a 2-hr drive and programs that are offered practically everywhere with online being a reasonable thing to do? 

Your auto mechanic courses will probably keep going.  Your general education classes that have no lab work are likely to be slowly transitioned away.  Again, the campus is unlikely to just announce one day that this is the last term, but the slow trickle of courses and programs quietly being reduced is probably going to accelerate this year.

Overall, I don't expect a lot of public community colleges to flat out close.

I do expect their missions to change to be more vo-tech or, in rare cases, expand up to specific bachelor degrees to meet local need.  I can absolutely see RN programs expand to be BSN and to perhaps acquire teaching certificate programs for those who already have a bachelor degree in something.  With the mission change, I can see specific faculty jobs being eliminated as no longer supporting the new mission.  Were I employed by a CC that isn't already in dire financial straits, I would be much more worried about how the mission change will affect my job than the institution itself just flat out closing.

Polly has some good thoughts above regarding what to look for in assessing a two-year college's long-term prospects.  To which I'd add, by way of elaboration:

First, all public schools, two-year or four-year, have a built-in regional constituency.  They were usually set up that way on purpose.  This gives them strong armor against being closed.  That's why I don't expect either UALR or Henderson State University, the two stressed public schools in my home state, to shut down any time soon.  As polly notes, though, that does not mean they can't expect to see programs cut in response to problems with funding, demographic changes, and changes in what students see the need to study.  She is also probably right in saying that smaller two-year campuses in regions where they are relatively thick on the ground are likely to undergo consolidation in a way that reduces what they do.  A few may even eventually close.

Second, polly's probably also correct that many two-year places will probably move more to a vocational-technical mission.  Many of them were originally vo-tech schools in the first place.  They're likely to revert back to that.  I'd like to think that the gen-ed components won't go away as completely as polly seems to think, but they will in all likelihood diminish at many schools.

[Wahoo Redux]

However, that's one concrete example of the fallacy of asserting that only a liberal arts education or a good general education with a healthy dollop of humanities for everyone is doing something fabulous to prepare people for a changing life after college.

Engineering, nursing, and K-12 teaching are professional programs that usually only check the box on general education and often have almost no free electives.

Anybody see the physics student from Hendrix College discuss "liberal arts" on College Jeopardy tonight?

Physics is a liberal arts field.  That's why he could major in it at Hendrix College. 

It was just kind of funny considering the discussion here.

He's at minute 4:30, the tall blond fella and the eventual champion of the game.

Mind you, this does not prove or disprove anything, but it does illustrate that your ideas about what students want or don't want might be a little severe and self congratulating. 

[spork]

[. . .]

Many of them were originally vo-tech schools in the first place.  They're likely to revert back to that. 

[. . .]

I lack the historical knowledge of U.S. higher education to have the details, but I have a vague impression that the shift in community colleges from vo-tech education to "do your first two years of college here if you don't have the grades or the money to get into the state four-year campus directly out of high school" model occurring in the late 1970s and 1980s -- I think because of the belief that all the disappearing manufacturing jobs would magically reappear as equally well-paid white collar service jobs, for which a B.A. in any random subject would be required (the "everyone has to go to college" mantra).   

[. . .]

First, all public schools, two-year or four-year, have a built-in regional constituency.  They were usually set up that way on purpose.  This gives them strong armor against being closed.  That's why I don't expect either UALR or Henderson State University, the two stressed public schools in my home state, to shut down any time soon.  As polly notes, though, that does not mean they can't expect to see programs cut in response to problems with funding, demographic changes, and changes in what students see the need to study. 

[. . .]

For example, the PASSHE campuses, half of which probably should be closed, but won't.

[tuxthepenguin]

Thanks ahead of time for your help in understanding how likely two-year community colleges are to close... I'm working in a medium-sized (roughly 10,000 students) public two-year community college and am trying to figure out how vulnerable we may be in the future!

In terms of closing, on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 most vulnerable, your institution is -5.Two-year CCs with 10,000 students are not going to close right now in the absence of something like an attack by space aliens.