Colleges in Dire Financial Straits

[Puget]

Young White adults who left home in the past decade tended to end up in New York. Their Black peers were most likely to end up in Atlanta. And for their Hispanic and Asian friends, the top destination was Los Angeles, according to a high-powered new analysis from researchers at the Census Bureau and Harvard University.

These maps show how tough it will be to recruit Asian, Black and Hispanic students to the many Northeast colleges and universities in the big blank swath from Kenyon in eastern Ohio to Bates in southern Maine. How effective can those schools be if they fail to reflect the demographics of America's academic future?

You may be right, but I don't actually think these maps speak to that. For one thing, it is where people ended up at age 26, not where they went to college-- those may be quite different (I went to college in OH, but certainly had no intention of staying there after college. I think that's pretty common). For another, these maps all look basically like a map of the fastest growing metro regions-- maybe the article addresses this (paywalled so couldn't read), but are these apparent differences actually significant? Are any of them disproportional to overall population change in those areas? Finally, as the map notes it only includes those born in the US. That leaves out an awfully large portion of US young adults.

[Anon1787]

Young White adults who left home in the past decade tended to end up in New York. Their Black peers were most likely to end up in Atlanta. And for their Hispanic and Asian friends, the top destination was Los Angeles, according to a high-powered new analysis from researchers at the Census Bureau and Harvard University.

These maps show how tough it will be to recruit Asian, Black and Hispanic students to the many Northeast colleges and universities in the big blank swath from Kenyon in eastern Ohio to Bates in southern Maine. How effective can those schools be if they fail to reflect the demographics of America's academic future?

You may be right, but I don't actually think these maps speak to that. For one thing, it is where people ended up at age 26, not where they went to college-- those may be quite different (I went to college in OH, but certainly had no intention of staying there after college. I think that's pretty common). For another, these maps all look basically like a map of the fastest growing metro regions-- maybe the article addresses this (paywalled so couldn't read), but are these apparent differences actually significant? Are any of them disproportional to overall population change in those areas? Finally, as the map notes it only includes those born in the US. That leaves out an awfully large portion of US young adults.

Yes, age 26 is after college when job opportunities are key for deciding where to live. Asian-Americans are more likely to move to tech-focused (and expensive) SF-San Jose-Sacramento and aren't keen on southern cities while African-Americans (who move shorter distances on average) are more likely to move to southern cities and aren't keen on the SF area. Hispanics are more likely to favor growth areas in the Southwest.

[Hibush]

Young White adults who left home in the past decade tended to end up in New York. Their Black peers were most likely to end up in Atlanta. And for their Hispanic and Asian friends, the top destination was Los Angeles, according to a high-powered new analysis from researchers at the Census Bureau and Harvard University.

These maps show how tough it will be to recruit Asian, Black and Hispanic students to the many Northeast colleges and universities in the big blank swath from Kenyon in eastern Ohio to Bates in southern Maine. How effective can those schools be if they fail to reflect the demographics of America's academic future?

You may be right, but I don't actually think these maps speak to that. For one thing, it is where people ended up at age 26, not where they went to college-- those may be quite different (I went to college in OH, but certainly had no intention of staying there after college. I think that's pretty common). For another, these maps all look basically like a map of the fastest growing metro regions-- maybe the article addresses this (paywalled so couldn't read), but are these apparent differences actually significant? Are any of them disproportional to overall population change in those areas? Finally, as the map notes it only includes those born in the US. That leaves out an awfully large portion of US young adults.

The numbers include only people who moved from one place at age 16 to another place a age 26, not those who stayed in place. That includes those who moved away for college and did not return to their home town. I expect similar influences on regional desirability to be in play at both decision points, but there are some who look at colleges for their own sake not their location.

There is lots more at the Census Bureau: https://migrationpatterns.org/ That map is on a finer scale ("Commuting area" which looks similar to Statistical Metropolitan Area). The graphic contains an immense amount of information.  You can also see what proportion stayed (or returned). That varies from 30% in job-loss areas such as near Lake Superior to >75% in LA and NY.

You can also sort by income quintile, which will be enriched in those who likely moved to find some employment at the bottom quintile and those who got and used a college education in the top quintile.

[poiuy]

Our college is heading towards dire, not there yet. 

We are a regional public, non-flagship campus, minority serving.

We had healthy enrolment until the pandemic, then those economic shocks, combined with declining demographics and decisions across all campuses to eliminate the SAT requirement, are leading to sustained enrollment dips on our campus over the last 2 years. Despite efforts (?) by our 'leadership', these trends are not likely to reverse soon.

This decline in undergraduate enrolment is triggering mandatory budget cuts from the system. We have already cut everything to the bone and may have to start amputating in the next very few years.

It's more painful as we are among only 3 or 4 campuses in the two systems that lost students, the flagships actually gained. HCBUs gained, which is a good thing. We do offer our undergraduates a lot, but that message is not conveying.

[Wahoo Redux]

Our college is heading towards dire, not there yet. 

We are a regional public, non-flagship campus, minority serving.

We had healthy enrolment until the pandemic, then those economic shocks, combined with declining demographics and decisions across all campuses to eliminate the SAT requirement, are leading to sustained enrollment dips on our campus over the last 2 years. Despite efforts (?) by our 'leadership', these trends are not likely to reverse soon.

This decline in undergraduate enrolment is triggering mandatory budget cuts from the system. We have already cut everything to the bone and may have to start amputating in the next very few years.

It's more painful as we are among only 3 or 4 campuses in the two systems that lost students, the flagships actually gained. HCBUs gained, which is a good thing. We do offer our undergraduates a lot, but that message is not conveying.

So sorry.  In many ways our current campus is undergoing the same thing yours is.

It is very demoralizing, I know. 

Keep the faith.  Start publishing.  Good luck.

[Hibush]

CHE has an article from the University of Akron about the travails of faculty who were laid off, but then hired back as adjuncts at 1/3 the pay. The various players have different perspectives on the schools dire straits and prospects. Some of the now-adjunct faculty seem to still be processing the reality of a school in the last throes. Some concerns sound as if they resent being moved to a lesser cabin on a sinking Titanic, when finding a spot in a lifeboat would be more prudent. At least one former faculty member is happily elsewhere, and realizing how much she had previously been sucked in to a mentality that kept her in an untenable situation.

[Hibush]

This seems to be the thread for enrolment trends as well. There is [urlhttps://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/5257787/Gallup-%20Back%20to%20School/Strada_Back%20to%20School.pdf]a new Galllup/Strada survey[/url] on the plans of college dropouts. Some colleges battling decline are looking at this population as a recruiting pool.
There is bad news. About half want more education, but of that half, only 10% think a four-year college is the form it should take.

The most common form is courses offered by the employer. I thought the scuttlebutt was that employers are no longer willing to provide on-the-job training, so there is some inconsistency in that story.
The second most common seems to be free community college that will lead to a raise or promotion at work (with evening classes and daycare provided).

I hope schools hoping to draw from this pool know which subset they are after, and whether CCs, which have lost the most enrolment, can provide that last scenario.

[apl68]

The second most common seems to be free community college that will lead to a raise or promotion at work (with evening classes and daycare provided).

I hope schools hoping to draw from this pool know which subset they are after, and whether CCs, which have lost the most enrolment, can provide that last scenario.

If our society is indeed serious about trying to give people educational opportunities to help them to improve their life situations, then this would be one good place to steer some investment and support.

[mamselle]

But some of those CC's may run the risk of becoming more Grade 13 and 14 than some already are.

I realize there are some really good ones that are not, but making it free and so on just seems to put it on a continuum with a K-12 public school (+2) mentality, stretching out the timeline in which to learn materials once learned in a more compact time frame.

And it would play into the dreams of those who would like to just ax all upper levels of education further, as well.

M. 

[poiuy]

So sorry.  In many ways our current campus is undergoing the same thing yours is.

It is very demoralizing, I know. 

Keep the faith.  Start publishing.  Good luck.

Sorry to hear that Wahoo.  I hope that you are able to take similar steps and find a firmer ground.

I have been publishing.

I just got promoted to Full so am not very mobile careerwise at this stage. Industry doesn't really exist in my field. If I was a huge grant-getter that would be a different thing, but I have had a mild trickle, enough to get me promoted but not enough to make me externally competitive.

I am about 10 years away from retirement so I hope my University can survive or (dare I hope) get its act together to revive, for that much time.

I would love to make a lateral move to being a program officer at a Foundation - give out money instead of asking for it, ha! A few consulting gigs would be lovely too.  I have tried searching for such opportunities online but have not had luck so far - my networks don't seem to be robust enough and opportunities are not plentiful. If any members here have ideas I would love to hear them.

mamselle: I hear you about community colleges (especially if free) becoming K-13 and K-14.  So many young people are graduating HS without some basic skills.
The other side is how the US education system is over-reliant on college - the whole trade apprenticeship track is underemphasized. Here is where CC can (and does in many places) increase its footprint.
There is also an encouragement (maybe) of early-college classes in high school, that may reduce students' time to college graduation that is great for the students but can hurt a college's numbers and finances, especially in states where there are strong agreements to accept early college or even AP courses in undergraduate curricula.

[marshwiggle]

mamselle: I hear you about community colleges (especially if free) becoming K-13 and K-14.  So many young people are graduating HS without some basic skills.
The other side is how the US education system is over-reliant on college - the whole trade apprenticeship track is underemphasized. Here is where CC can (and does in many places) increase its footprint.
There is also an encouragement (maybe) of early-college classes in high school, that may reduce students' time to college graduation that is great for the students but can hurt a college's numbers and finances, especially in states where there are strong agreements to accept early college or even AP courses in undergraduate curricula.

I bet a lot of those "early-college" classes now are covering material that would have been in high school decades ago, and so many people "graduating" now would have dropped out with a year or two to go then. So the actual proportion of the population acquiring a specific level of proficiency hasn't really changed much; just the label of how much "school" they've had.

(In other words, there's been very little progress in figuring out how to get most people to achieve a higher level of proficiency, but standards and labels have changed to pretend otherwise.)

[apl68]

Since before COVID the nearest four-year college to where we live--it's the better part of an hour away--has had a solid majority of its freshman class in remedial courses each year.  They're paying college tuition to learn things that they should have mastered in high school.  It's a state school that is so unabashedly open-enrollment that it doesn't even pretend to be selective.  I wouldn't advise a local college-bound student not to go there, if it's the student's only choice, as it is for so many of our local students.  But I would advise that student to strive to be in the top of each class, not to be content to run in the middle of a rather slow-moving pack.

This is what I fear Henderson State University eventually turning into.

I don't endorse using CCs and other lower-tier public schools as "grades 13-14/16."  But that's what so very many of our young people need before they can have any chance in the workplace. 

[mamselle]

Right, and I want to reiterate that I know there are very good CCs that resist the trend I described.

I think the rot sets in when elected state officials with no real educational background to speak of start playing Tiddly-Winks with the budget lines, and try to eviscerate the schools that were barely holding on and trying to do some good in their region.

If that's not a problem in your state, you're truly lucky.

M.

[Wahoo Redux]

I bet a lot of those "early-college" classes now are covering material that would have been in high school decades ago

standards and labels have changed to pretend otherwise.)

Avoid the high waisted, tight-belted curmudgeon pants, Marshy.

"You kids get off my lawn!!"

[marshwiggle]

I bet a lot of those "early-college" classes now are covering material that would have been in high school decades ago

standards and labels have changed to pretend otherwise.)

Avoid the high waisted, tight-belted curmudgeon pants, Marshy.

"You kids get off my lawn!!"

When my mom was in school, 80ish years ago, high school students had to take Latin and trigonometry.

And that was in Quebec, where high school ends at Grade 11.

"You kids get off my mom's lawn!"