Colleges in Dire Financial Straits

[tuxthepenguin]

Ultimately though, if we look at what institutions might be most vulnerable to the pandemic, it's probably institutions that can't rely on public funding, are not very well known to the public (aka little-to-no reputation to bank on), are relatively expensive for students, and are located outside of major metro areas. Do y'all think that speculation is correct or that I'm leaving something out?

Public funding means state funding, which means publics are totally screwed. Publics can't rely on public funding. Privates don't have public funding to lose.

I'd expect the hardest hit to be in major metro areas, to the extent that there are concerns about catching the virus. This is more speculative.

[Caracal]

Ultimately though, if we look at what institutions might be most vulnerable to the pandemic, it's probably institutions that can't rely on public funding, are not very well known to the public (aka little-to-no reputation to bank on), are relatively expensive for students, and are located outside of major metro areas. Do y'all think that speculation is correct or that I'm leaving something out?

Public funding means state funding, which means publics are totally screwed. Publics can't rely on public funding. Privates don't have public funding to lose.

Yeah, but states have more invested in their educational systems, they have deeper pocketbooks and more ability to move money around. They also are going to get federal grants, Mitch McConnell's gross posturing notwithstanding. They are also, on balance, likely to have lower drops in enrollment, perhaps even gains in the long run, since they are more affordable.

I'd argue that schools in growing metro areas should do better really, at least if those areas are growing. Regional Universities with declining enrollments could find themselves in more trouble.

[tuxthepenguin]

Ultimately though, if we look at what institutions might be most vulnerable to the pandemic, it's probably institutions that can't rely on public funding, are not very well known to the public (aka little-to-no reputation to bank on), are relatively expensive for students, and are located outside of major metro areas. Do y'all think that speculation is correct or that I'm leaving something out?

Public funding means state funding, which means publics are totally screwed. Publics can't rely on public funding. Privates don't have public funding to lose.

Yeah, but states have more invested in their educational systems, they have deeper pocketbooks and more ability to move money around. They also are going to get federal grants, Mitch McConnell's gross posturing notwithstanding. They are also, on balance, likely to have lower drops in enrollment, perhaps even gains in the long run, since they are more affordable.

All 50 states have been hit hard and they have to balance their budgets. The only direction money will be moving is out of the spending side of the budget. Federal grants (if there are any) will be much less than their shortfalls. The only public schools that won't see a big drop in government funding will be the ones that don't receive much government funding. It's always possible that there will be a shocking development, but I don't know of any public school administrators not currently expecting deep budget cuts.

[Caracal]

Ultimately though, if we look at what institutions might be most vulnerable to the pandemic, it's probably institutions that can't rely on public funding, are not very well known to the public (aka little-to-no reputation to bank on), are relatively expensive for students, and are located outside of major metro areas. Do y'all think that speculation is correct or that I'm leaving something out?

Public funding means state funding, which means publics are totally screwed. Publics can't rely on public funding. Privates don't have public funding to lose.

Yeah, but states have more invested in their educational systems, they have deeper pocketbooks and more ability to move money around. They also are going to get federal grants, Mitch McConnell's gross posturing notwithstanding. They are also, on balance, likely to have lower drops in enrollment, perhaps even gains in the long run, since they are more affordable.

All 50 states have been hit hard and they have to balance their budgets. The only direction money will be moving is out of the spending side of the budget. Federal grants (if there are any) will be much less than their shortfalls. The only public schools that won't see a big drop in government funding will be the ones that don't receive much government funding. It's always possible that there will be a shocking development, but I don't know of any public school administrators not currently expecting deep budget cuts.

Yeah, certainly. I just mean that compared to private schools with  limited endowment that largely rely on tuition revenue, most state schools are better positioned. The fancy private schools are a different story.

[spork]

These poll numbers aren't good.

[Caracal]

These poll numbers aren't good.

It seems like a pretty classic example of polls where the questions asked aren't going to necessarily get you useful information. It also doesn't help that the article presents the results in some strange ways. To my mind, saying you aren't likely to return to your school is pretty different than saying "it is too soon to tell." Too soon to tell seems like a very sensible answer to any question right now about anything more than a week off.

I'd also be curious if anyone has asked students this question in the spring of other semesters. Given that about 40 percent of freshmen at four year colleges don't return to that school for their sophomore year, 14 percent of student who aren't sure if they are coming back doesn't really seem  unusually high.

The numbers don't really give a lot of useful information context. "Ten percent of college-bound seniors who had planned to enroll at a four-year college before the COVID-19 outbreak have already made alternative plans" sounds alarming, but what makes a student "college bound" and what percentage of these students actually end up enrolling in college in the fall in other years?

I think this is my "favorite" passage, its from one of the linked articles.

"Today, newly released data from polling of U.S. high school seniors suggest admissions officers may have good reason to be worried.
About 12 percent of such students who have already made deposits no longer plan to attend a four-year college full-time, according to the polling. The findings are being shared today by the consulting firm Art & Science Group, which polled 1,171 high school seniors from April 21-24.
Admissions officers always expect some students who told a college they planned to attend not to enroll. The phenomenon has a name: summer melt. Different surveys show summer melt affecting between 10 percent and 20 percent of students. But the new data specifically about students who have already deposited is particularly concerning coming at this point in this particular year, said Nanci Tessier, senior vice president at Art & Science."

I feel like I'm reading a mediocre student paper.

[marshwiggle]

These poll numbers aren't good.

Two points interest me:

Gap years may be gaining in popularity. While hard to track, there are estimates that 3 percent of freshmen take a gap year. Since the pandemic, internet searches for gap years have skyrocketed.

If this means a bunch of students who would previously have gone by default, i.e. just because it's "the thing to do", then this is a good thing. Whatever decision they've made after a year is likely to be more deliberate.

College students do not like the online education they have been receiving. To finish their degrees, 85 percent want to go back to campus, but 15 percent want to finish online.

That's a huge number; it's not merely about taking a course or two online, but finishing their degree. After having had 3 years of the on-campus "experience".

Let that sink in for a moment.....

[downer]

That's a huge number; it's not merely about taking a course or two online, but finishing their degree. After having had 3 years of the on-campus "experience".

Let that sink in for a moment.....

I don't know. It seems quite small to me. 15% of seniors would prefer to just get college over with, living at home, without having to worry so much about other irresponsible students endangering them. Without having to pay for accommodation when they can't find a job. I'd have guessed more than that.

[tuxthepenguin]

SimpsonScarborough, a higher education research and marketing company, has predicted on the basis of multiple student surveys it has conducted.

Let's get our data from a firm not doing surveys for the sole purpose of recruiting new customers.

"multiple surveys": So that means they're reporting the results that are going to bring them the most business?

The presentation of results is done to paint the most dramatic picture possible. Students always change their mind. This would be a pretty good time for a student to reconsider the decision to go to college, but that tells us absolutely nothing. "Ten percent of college-bound seniors who had planned to enroll at a four-year college before the COVID-19 outbreak have already made alternative plans." What does that mean? We have no way to know! What percentage of seniors have changed their minds to enroll since this happened? Oh, we don't have that critically important data?

tldr: It's a scary time. You better hire us to help with marketing.

[dr_codex]

That's a huge number; it's not merely about taking a course or two online, but finishing their degree. After having had 3 years of the on-campus "experience".

Let that sink in for a moment.....

I don't know. It seems quite small to me. 15% of seniors would prefer to just get college over with, living at home, without having to worry so much about other irresponsible students endangering them. Without having to pay for accommodation when they can't find a job. I'd have guessed more than that.

Maybe. But you've changed "want to finish online" to "would prefer". Not the same thing.

We'd need to see the actual questions to know if there's any kind of "nudge", if this is being presented as a forced choice, or as a preference on a spectrum. And inferring motives is a risky move.

Also, the exclusions of both CC's and foreign students are important. Is it a wash?

Probably inconclusive reports, but worth reviewing as they are refined.

[marshwiggle]

That's a huge number; it's not merely about taking a course or two online, but finishing their degree. After having had 3 years of the on-campus "experience".

Let that sink in for a moment.....

I don't know. It seems quite small to me. 15% of seniors would prefer to just get college over with, living at home, without having to worry so much about other irresponsible students endangering them. Without having to pay for accommodation when they can't find a job. I'd have guessed more than that.

Maybe. But you've changed "want to finish online" to "would prefer". Not the same thing.

And that's given the dog's breakfast their online experience has been this year due to covid. It is hardly the best advertisement for the benefits of online education.

We'd need to see the actual questions to know if there's any kind of "nudge", if this is being presented as a forced choice, or as a preference on a spectrum. And inferring motives is a risky move.

Also, the exclusions of both CC's and foreign students are important. Is it a wash?

Probably inconclusive reports, but worth reviewing as they are refined.

Indeed. If that 15% is anything close to meaningful, it's a big deal.

[Caracal]

[
Indeed. If that 15% is anything close to meaningful, it's a big deal.

Not really, we are in the midst of a pandemic. People have had to learn to think of crowds and close interaction as dangerous. It doesn't really seem shocking that a small percentage of students would express a preference for avoiding risk when asked a hypothetical question about something they don't control four months into the future.

Surveys are often pretty bad at predicting people's future behavior. Every election year as the primary is wrapping up, there are always polls showing that some high percentage of the losing candidate's supporters "aren't sure" if they are going to vote for the winner in the general election. In the end, the vast majority of them always do. They just haven't gotten over their disappointment yet.

[apl68]

Gap years may be gaining in popularity. While hard to track, there are estimates that 3 percent of freshmen take a gap year. Since the pandemic, internet searches for gap years have skyrocketed.

If this means a bunch of students who would previously have gone by default, i.e. just because it's "the thing to do", then this is a good thing. Whatever decision they've made after a year is likely to be more deliberate.

I'm inclined to agree with you that a reality-check gap year would do a lot of potential students some good (A one-year vacation gap year would be another matter).  However, the best reality check would be a year's exposure to the world of work.  That may be awfully hard to do with the economy in the shape it's in now.

[Wahoo Redux]

S&P Slashes 127 Colleges from IHE.

[dr_codex]

S&P Slashes 127 Colleges from IHE.

The list, if you want the names: https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/200430-outlooks-revised-on-certain-u-s-not-for-profit-higher-education-institutions-due-to-covid-19-impact-11469520

Gulp.