What Will Higher Ed Look Like After the Deluge?

[mleok]

Are we really so sure that there's going to be a wave of colleges closing?

Yeah, probably, unfortunately.  A lot of this is on the say so of a single Harvard Biz. Prof. Clayton Christiansen, but it seems he might be right.  This is a pretty good summary:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelhorn/2018/12/13/will-half-of-all-colleges-really-close-in-the-next-decade/?sh=7ca740b152e5

He might be right, but I'm suspicious of these kinds of macro predictions because they're quite often wrong. Chriistiansen originally made that prediction in 2013. It isn't on track to come anywhere close even with COVID.

While the specific timescale and magnitude of the collapse might be incorrect, the economic and demographic issues that are raised appear to be spot on, so it feels like a matter of time. In particular, the reliance on contingent labor is unlikely to reverse, and the drop in the fraction of contingent faculty is presumably because of the number of courses being offered dropping, as opposed to any fundamental change in hiring practices moving forward.

[Wahoo Redux]

Are we really so sure that there's going to be a wave of colleges closing?

Yeah, probably, unfortunately.  A lot of this is on the say so of a single Harvard Biz. Prof. Clayton Christiansen, but it seems he might be right.  This is a pretty good summary:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelhorn/2018/12/13/will-half-of-all-colleges-really-close-in-the-next-decade/?sh=7ca740b152e5

He might be right, but I'm suspicious of these kinds of macro predictions because they're quite often wrong. Chriistiansen originally made that prediction in 2013. It isn't on track to come anywhere close even with COVID.

While the specific timescale and magnitude of the collapse might be incorrect, the economic and demographic issues that are raised appear to be spot on, so it feels like a matter of time. In particular, the reliance on contingent labor is unlikely to reverse, and the drop in the fraction of contingent faculty is presumably because of the number of courses being offered dropping, as opposed to any fundamental change in hiring practices moving forward.

There actually was a concerted effort on the parts of a number of colleges to hire fulltime. The vectors of PT vs. FT academic jobs had reversed.  I posted several articles on it a long time ago, well before COVID...and then COVID hit and I suspect these efforts will have been for naught.

[mahagonny]

There actually was a concerted effort on the parts of a number of colleges to hire fulltime. The vectors of PT vs. FT academic jobs had reversed.  I posted several articles on it a long time ago, well before COVID...and then COVID hit and I suspect these efforts will have been for naught.

The change in the balance between part time and full time was minor. Keeping too many adjuncts on is bad for the image. As long as you're keeping up with the Joneses you're good.
If a college goes under, will it more often be because they can't afford to hire capable instructors for what people want to study, or because they can't envision an academic world without guaranteed lifetime employment and juicy benefit packages for a minority irrespective of changing enrollments and trends? My money's on the latter.

[Ruralguy]

It might very well, as we've discussed in many threads, be because the school can not afford to teach what the students want. I've mentioned that we can't do formal engineering or business, though we can get close.
For many, close is not enough, and they will go to a cheaper school that happens to have more offerings. This is a big problem, but not the only one. We've also bloated our staff, and not just administrators. Some of our faculties are likely a little too big. Also, though I am loathe to admit it in public, we were to quick to give too big of a raise to everybody after are one good year a number of years ago.

[mahagonny]

It might very well, as we've discussed in many threads, be because the school can not afford to teach what the students want. I've mentioned that we can't do formal engineering or business, though we can get close.
For many, close is not enough, and they will go to a cheaper school that happens to have more offerings. This is a big problem, but not the only one. We've also bloated our staff, and not just administrators. Some of our faculties are likely a little too big. Also, though I am loathe to admit it in public, we were to quick to give too big of a raise to everybody after are one good year a number of years ago.

Some years ago the dean decided the way to deal with the 'budget crisis' (I use quotations because the phrase 'budget crisis' appears in our culture like 'stolen base' appears at a ballgame) by cutting all adjunct pay, like 1/6. This was right after the full time faculty had received a raise. They had a union (from which they pointedly excluded us) and we didn't. The dean wasn't thinking supply and demand or what the market will bear. He was thinking about who could make trouble for him and who couldn't. The tenure track thought this was just fine.
on edit: I won't post any more words than needed to express myself (because it's a potential flame-thrower), but my opinion is if the pandemic were to result in the wholesale demise of tenure and the creative, responsible use of the resulting flexibility options, the crisis will not have gone completely to waste.

[Ruralguy]

I'm not that big of a fan of tenure, but much bigger wigs than me have spoken against it and moved the needle nada.

For us, its either cut pay or cut positions. Almost all raises and cuts here are college wide.

[lightning]

I'm trying to stay positive.*

As my university begins to emerge from the pandemic and makes plans for the fall semester, there are some things that happened during the pandemic that I hope will remain and become a permanent part of the "new look" of higher ed.

1) The reduction of public events that are not related to curriculum or research. Higher ed does too many of them, and most of them are useless. Very few people really miss them and they cost a lot in time and money. Let's keep the ones we really want to host, but drop the ones that truly are not something any stakeholders truly want to attend.

2) The reduction of meeting space and numbers of meetings. The amount of meetings went down (even with Zoom), during the pandemic. Let's keep it that way. Let's get rid of at least half the meeting rooms we used to use or more, and use Zoom (or something similar) instead. Let's use the meeting rooms as places of learning & research. Let's use the meeting time for research and teaching.

3) The reduction of bureaucratic processes. At least at my uni, bureaucratic processes were tied in with meetings and events, with meetings and events as a symbol and exercise of admin power and with meetings as the only way to do the bureaucratic work. Without the spectacle, power exercise, and forced bureaucratic processes, of meetings and events, some of the bureaucratic processes lost their luster or even their raison d'être. Also, some bureaucratic processes simply vanished (at least for the past year until now), and guess what--the university did not fall apart and die, even with COVID-19 threatening our very existence.

4) The elimination of the admin positions that were tied to nos. 1-3.

Conclusion: I said something similar to this post, on the old thread that Marshy linked to. As a recap, the beginning of the pandemic basically froze the administrators at my university. They were mostly useless, and faculty were forced to fend for themselves and figure out how to meet their obligations to their students and their labs. Although faculty were on an island to fend for themselves, there was little presence of and interference from admincritters and their bureaucracy. And did the university fall apart and die? No. During the pandemic, the institution of the university was the relationship between faculty and students. Did the university fall apart & die? No!!!


* (I'll admit, it's easier to stay positive because my university did not really suffer very much, relatively speaking, However, there are probably more schools like mine than we think. It's just that the voice(s) of doom always get more attention, especially when the voice(s) of doom crave schadenfreude. The story of my university is nothing like the sLACs, I'm sure, but sLACs are a whole different type of school with its own set of distinct problems that should not be generalized to all of higher ed.)

[Caracal]

Are we really so sure that there's going to be a wave of colleges closing?

Yeah, probably, unfortunately.  A lot of this is on the say so of a single Harvard Biz. Prof. Clayton Christiansen, but it seems he might be right.  This is a pretty good summary:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelhorn/2018/12/13/will-half-of-all-colleges-really-close-in-the-next-decade/?sh=7ca740b152e5

He might be right, but I'm suspicious of these kinds of macro predictions because they're quite often wrong. Chriistiansen originally made that prediction in 2013. It isn't on track to come anywhere close even with COVID.

While the specific timescale and magnitude of the collapse might be incorrect, the economic and demographic issues that are raised appear to be spot on, so it feels like a matter of time. In particular, the reliance on contingent labor is unlikely to reverse, and the drop in the fraction of contingent faculty is presumably because of the number of courses being offered dropping, as opposed to any fundamental change in hiring practices moving forward.

Maybe? The history of these kinds of predictions suggests that its hard to account for all the possible factors, especially when many of them are about policies and political choices as much as they are about economics. I'm not optimistic, just skeptical. The incentives on predictions are skewed. People who predict dramatic things get a lot of attention. If you make a lot of predictions, and a few of them are accurate, that gets even more attention and everyone tends to forget all the things you got wrong. If you argue that things are complicated and lay out a variety of possible scenarios depending on how things play out, that gets almost no attention.

[Ruralguy]

Most public events are held by a particular dept. or whatever to show people they exist. 90% of all of these are either deadly dull or impenetrable by non-experts.  Exceptions, but not always, would be some musical performances or plays. So, I generally agree, don't miss most of these.

As far as absence of admin, I think you may be misinterpreting this. Just because you aren't being hassled by them doesn't mean they don't exist. I assume you still get paychecks. If buildings are still being run and grounds being kept, some one is doing that and managing it. Registrar is still working? People still getting tenure?  Administrators might not be working on pet projects, and many of those might be annoying to the faculty that don't agree with them, but that doesn't mean they, the administrators,  aren't functioning. Also, do you think your school is at maximum efficiency? Are enrollments good? Students learning as well as they could? If they are, then maybe its worth cutting down on some admin when you come back from COVID, if not, then while it might be more pleasant not to be pinned down in a meeting, it doesn't mean necessarily that the school is better off without administration.

[mleok]

Maybe? The history of these kinds of predictions suggests that its hard to account for all the possible factors, especially when many of them are about policies and political choices as much as they are about economics. I'm not optimistic, just skeptical. The incentives on predictions are skewed. People who predict dramatic things get a lot of attention. If you make a lot of predictions, and a few of them are accurate, that gets even more attention and everyone tends to forget all the things you got wrong. If you argue that things are complicated and lay out a variety of possible scenarios depending on how things play out, that gets almost no attention.

Sure, you get more attention if you cry doom and gloom, as opposed to slow and painful decline. But, the issues raised seem fairly accurate, and the trends are not promising. My money is on slow and painful decline, with razor thin margins that provide no resilience to unforseen crises.

[polly_mer]

Are we really so sure that there's going to be a wave of colleges closing?

Yeah, probably, unfortunately.  A lot of this is on the say so of a single Harvard Biz. Prof. Clayton Christiansen, but it seems he might be right.  This is a pretty good summary:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelhorn/2018/12/13/will-half-of-all-colleges-really-close-in-the-next-decade/?sh=7ca740b152e5

If you think the predictions of continued closures are all on the say so of one guy, then you are not informed enough to participate in the conversation.

[spork]

Are we really so sure that there's going to be a wave of colleges closing?

Yeah, probably, unfortunately.  A lot of this is on the say so of a single Harvard Biz. Prof. Clayton Christiansen, but it seems he might be right.  This is a pretty good summary:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelhorn/2018/12/13/will-half-of-all-colleges-really-close-in-the-next-decade/?sh=7ca740b152e5

If you think the predictions of continued closures are all on the say so of one guy, then you are not informed enough to participate in the conversation.

Someone other than Christensen, from 2013: https://activelearningps.com/2013/10/03/coming-attractions/.

[Wahoo Redux]

Are we really so sure that there's going to be a wave of colleges closing?

Yeah, probably, unfortunately.  A lot of this is on the say so of a single Harvard Biz. Prof. Clayton Christiansen, but it seems he might be right.  This is a pretty good summary:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelhorn/2018/12/13/will-half-of-all-colleges-really-close-in-the-next-decade/?sh=7ca740b152e5

If you think the predictions of continued closures are all on the say so of one guy, then you are not informed enough to participate in the conversation.

Perhaps.  However...

I wanna rock!(Rock!)
I wanna rock!(Rock!)
I wanna rock!(Rock!)
I wanna rock!(Rock!)

Turn it down you say
But all I got to say to you is time and time again I say No!
No! No! No!
Tell me not to play
Well, all I got to say to when you tell me not to play I say No!
No! No! No!

So, if you ask me why I like the way I play it
There's only one thing I can say to you

I wanna rock!(Rock!)
I wanna rock!(Rock!)
I wanna rock!(Rock!)
I wanna rock!(Rock!)

[lightning]

Most public events are held by a particular dept. or whatever to show people they exist. 90% of all of these are either deadly dull or impenetrable by non-experts.  Exceptions, but not always, would be some musical performances or plays. So, I generally agree, don't miss most of these.

As far as absence of admin, I think you may be misinterpreting this. Just because you aren't being hassled by them doesn't mean they don't exist. I assume you still get paychecks. If buildings are still being run and grounds being kept, some one is doing that and managing it. Registrar is still working? People still getting tenure?  Administrators might not be working on pet projects, and many of those might be annoying to the faculty that don't agree with them, but that doesn't mean they, the administrators,  aren't functioning. Also, do you think your school is at maximum efficiency? Are enrollments good? Students learning as well as they could? If they are, then maybe its worth cutting down on some admin when you come back from COVID, if not, then while it might be more pleasant not to be pinned down in a meeting, it doesn't mean necessarily that the school is better off without administration.

Maybe. Maybe not. It's hard to know for sure. Maybe if someone did a review of the efficacy of administration, we'll know. Admins should have to demonstrate their value, just like the faculty have to. At the very least, if they did that, and faculty knew for sure what value admins bring, some of the faculty might finally shut up. Until then, the distrust will continue, especially as the admin class expands and the faculty have to fight to keep faculty positions.

[Caracal]

Are we really so sure that there's going to be a wave of colleges closing?

Yeah, probably, unfortunately.  A lot of this is on the say so of a single Harvard Biz. Prof. Clayton Christiansen, but it seems he might be right.  This is a pretty good summary:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelhorn/2018/12/13/will-half-of-all-colleges-really-close-in-the-next-decade/?sh=7ca740b152e5

If you think the predictions of continued closures are all on the say so of one guy, then you are not informed enough to participate in the conversation.

This might just be my vaccine fever talking, but eff off Poly.