No more masks?? (What are your thoughts?)

[Cheerful]

since we don't have great information on how much the vaccinated can transfer the virus.

Actually, we have pretty good data on this now-- see here for summary: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/fully-vaccinated-people.html

Key data point is Pfizer (and would expect Moderna to be about the same given their similarity), 94% protection against *asymptomatic* infection 2 weeks after second dose, and 4x lower viral load even in those who did test positive (meaning even in those rare cases transmission is probably even rarer).

Thanks Puget.  The viral load info seems important.  CDC says that's "prelim data from Israel." 

From same brief:  "A growing body of evidence suggests that fully vaccinated people are less likely to have asymptomatic infection and potentially less likely to transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others. However, further investigation is ongoing."  Italics are mine.

CDC vaccine breakthrough data (they acknowledge incompleteness): https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html

"As previously announced, CDC is transitioning to reporting only patients with COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infection that were hospitalized or died to help maximize the quality of the data collected on cases of greatest clinical and public health importance. That change in reporting will begin on May 14, 2021. In preparation for that transition, the number of reported breakthrough cases will not be updated on May 7, 2021."

[mahagonny]

After two treatments, I am now fully neutered. It's safe for people to socialize.

[Puget]

since we don't have great information on how much the vaccinated can transfer the virus.

Actually, we have pretty good data on this now-- see here for summary: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/fully-vaccinated-people.html

Key data point is Pfizer (and would expect Moderna to be about the same given their similarity), 94% protection against *asymptomatic* infection 2 weeks after second dose, and 4x lower viral load even in those who did test positive (meaning even in those rare cases transmission is probably even rarer).

Thanks Puget.  The viral load info seems important.  CDC says that's "prelim data from Israel." 

From same brief:  "A growing body of evidence suggests that fully vaccinated people are less likely to have asymptomatic infection and potentially less likely to transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others. However, further investigation is ongoing."  Italics are mine.

CDC vaccine breakthrough data (they acknowledge incompleteness): https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html

"As previously announced, CDC is transitioning to reporting only patients with COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infection that were hospitalized or died to help maximize the quality of the data collected on cases of greatest clinical and public health importance. That change in reporting will begin on May 14, 2021. In preparation for that transition, the number of reported breakthrough cases will not be updated on May 7, 2021."

My read of their messaging throughout  is to take the usual level of caution of scientists interpreting data (already pretty high) and then multiply it by about 10 to get where the CDC is. It's not just risk aversion-- they also resisted evidence for a long time that masks reduce transmission and that aerosol  transmission happens-- they are just consistently several months behind the science curve. When all is said and done the culture there will need some examining (imagine if the CDC rather than FDA were in charge of approving vaccines-- they might still be saying there was "emerging evidence" that they work!).

In other news, I had my second dose yesterday and am happy(?) to report I'm experiencing a very robust immune response today. I'm taking the day off in the theory that the students don't want me grading their papers in my current state. Thinking about what a privilege that is and that the best thing we could do for those who are not vaccine resistant but haven't been vaccinated yet (and apparently there are ~30 million in the US still, primarily minority low-wage workers) is guarantee the paid time off for vaccination and recovery.

[Caracal]

Seems premature to me, since there's no easy way to check the unmasked have been vaccinated, and since we don't have great information on how much the vaccinated can transfer the virus.

Transmission of virus by vaccinated is something we need more data on.  8 cases of vaccinated NY Yankee player/staff testing positive for Covid this week, 1 symptomatic. They need to study these cases.  Bill Maher, vaccinated, he/staff do weekly PCR tests, he tested positive, asymptomatic.

How many asymptomatic vaccinated people are there and can they transmit to other vaccinated and nonvaccinated people?

I wouldn't draw a lot of inferences from sporadic cases like this. A lot of people have been vaccinated so we should actually expect to hear about rare events where prominent people have breakthrough infections, it doesn't mean we have to reevaluate everything.

The Yankees case sounds alarming, but remember we don't know how many people were exposed. Chances are, a lot of people who would have gotten infected, didn't because they were vaccinated.

There's also reason to suspect that when vaccinated people get an  asymptomatic infection, they aren't likely to transmit the virus to anyone else. So, it could well be that the take away from this is that one person had a mild breakthrough infection and the vaccines effectively prevented it from spreading or getting anyone else sick.

[Sun_Worshiper]

Once the vaccine has set in there is a very low probability of catching covid and an extremely low probability of hospitalization. The risk is that you could still possibly transmit covid to somebody who isn't vaccinated, so if you have non-vaccinated people in your circle then it is probably wise to keep wearing the mask. However, if you and everyone else in your household/social circle have been vaccinated, then being maskless inside a restaurant, theater, or classroom is fairly low risk.

[Caracal]

Once the vaccine has set in there is a very low probability of catching covid and an extremely low probability of hospitalization. The risk is that you could still possibly transmit covid to somebody who isn't vaccinated, so if you have non-vaccinated people in your circle then it is probably wise to keep wearing the mask. However, if you and everyone else in your household/social circle have been vaccinated, then being maskless inside a restaurant, theater, or classroom is fairly low risk.

I hadn't thought about the classroom for this.  At the moment, none of this makes any difference to me since my state still has mask requirements for indoor public spaces. If those requirements go away, I might decide to keep wearing a mask indoors until cases go down substantially. I actually find wearing a mask a lot more annoying in outdoor spaces than indoors.

I would really prefer not to wear a mask in the classroom next fall, however.

[AvidReader]

The bottom line is that I dont trust that those NOT wearing a mask have been vaccinated.

Agree. Most people in my region who are not vaccinated also think masks are stupid. Mask mandates in my state are already lifted, but 50% of the people in the town where I live have chosen not to wear masks since we moved here. Now they will just lie if challenged.

Mask-wearing signals to me that the wearer is willing to make a small effort for the health of those with whom the wearer comes into contact. I loosely expect a mask-wearer also to be a hand-washer and to be aware of ways to minimize risks to others. While I may no longer wear masks in small groups of vaccinated people, I will continue to wear my mask in public places so that the people who are concerned can feel better protected. Why should my facial comfort trump their emotional comfort?

AR.

[mamselle]

The bottom line is that I dont trust that those NOT wearing a mask have been vaccinated.

Agree. Most people in my region who are not vaccinated also think masks are stupid. Mask mandates in my state are already lifted, but 50% of the people in the town where I live have chosen not to wear masks since we moved here. Now they will just lie if challenged.

Mask-wearing signals to me that the wearer is willing to make a small effort for the health of those with whom the wearer comes into contact. I loosely expect a mask-wearer also to be a hand-washer and to be aware of ways to minimize risks to others. While I may no longer wear masks in small groups of vaccinated people, I will continue to wear my mask in public places so that the people who are concerned can feel better protected. Why should my facial comfort trump their emotional comfort?

AR.

+1

I'm still wearing a mask on the rare times I go out--i.e., to run errands and do a quick shopping at 7 AM every other week.

The rest of the time, I'm still staying inside, teaching online, and getting work done.

I neither want to get or give anything untoward to anyone.

"Mask" is not a four-letter word in my book.

M.

[Caracal]

Mask-wearing signals to me that the wearer is willing to make a small effort for the health of those with whom the wearer comes into contact. I loosely expect a mask-wearer also to be a hand-washer and to be aware of ways to minimize risks to others. While I may no longer wear masks in small groups of vaccinated people, I will continue to wear my mask in public places so that the people who are concerned can feel better protected. Why should my facial comfort trump their emotional comfort?

AR.

Make have become a symbol because of how partisan and politicized COVID measures have become. I think it would be good if we could get away from that. Masks are just a tool. I tend to think it makes sense to keep mask mandates for everyone in indoor spaces till cases get lower, but that's just about the practicalities of enforcement. Masks don't have to be a symbol of concern for others when getting vaccinated means they are no longer necessary.

[Kron3007]

Mask-wearing signals to me that the wearer is willing to make a small effort for the health of those with whom the wearer comes into contact. I loosely expect a mask-wearer also to be a hand-washer and to be aware of ways to minimize risks to others. While I may no longer wear masks in small groups of vaccinated people, I will continue to wear my mask in public places so that the people who are concerned can feel better protected. Why should my facial comfort trump their emotional comfort?

AR.

Make have become a symbol because of how partisan and politicized COVID measures have become. I think it would be good if we could get away from that. Masks are just a tool. I tend to think it makes sense to keep mask mandates for everyone in indoor spaces till cases get lower, but that's just about the practicalities of enforcement. Masks don't have to be a symbol of concern for others when getting vaccinated means they are no longer necessary.

I think the CDC advice would be reasonable if there were not a human and political element.  If everyone did what they were told, theid advice seems sound, but with this decree everyone who wants to go maskless can do so with impunity.  Of course, if people all did what they were told this wouldn't be the problem that it is...

What I find odd with all of this is that the US is acting like it is over when there are still over 700 deaths per day.  I am in Canada and our media is also acting as if this is over in the US and raging up here even though our per capita death count is still lower (although our per capita case count is currently higher).  I guess it is just a matter of relative numbers, but even though the numbers down there are heading in the right direction they are still not great.

[Caracal]

Mask-wearing signals to me that the wearer is willing to make a small effort for the health of those with whom the wearer comes into contact. I loosely expect a mask-wearer also to be a hand-washer and to be aware of ways to minimize risks to others. While I may no longer wear masks in small groups of vaccinated people, I will continue to wear my mask in public places so that the people who are concerned can feel better protected. Why should my facial comfort trump their emotional comfort?

AR.

Make have become a symbol because of how partisan and politicized COVID measures have become. I think it would be good if we could get away from that. Masks are just a tool. I tend to think it makes sense to keep mask mandates for everyone in indoor spaces till cases get lower, but that's just about the practicalities of enforcement. Masks don't have to be a symbol of concern for others when getting vaccinated means they are no longer necessary.

I think the CDC advice would be reasonable if there were not a human and political element.  If everyone did what they were told, theid advice seems sound, but with this decree everyone who wants to go maskless can do so with impunity.  Of course, if people all did what they were told this wouldn't be the problem that it is...

The CDC isn't actually changing anything in terms of local regulations, or even recommending those regulations be changed. The advice applies just to individuals. That said, it might have some effect on those regulations, so I see your point.

[Cheerful]

The CDC isn't actually changing anything in terms of local regulations, or even recommending those regulations be changed. The advice applies just to individuals. That said, it might have some effect on those regulations, so I see your point.

Today, it's reportedly causing confusion/problems in retail outlets, restaurants, etc. as state and local guidance has not yet been aligned with the new CDC guidance and not all states/localities/businesses may align.

[Caracal]

The CDC isn't actually changing anything in terms of local regulations, or even recommending those regulations be changed. The advice applies just to individuals. That said, it might have some effect on those regulations, so I see your point.

Today, it's reportedly causing confusion/problems in retail outlets, restaurants, etc. as state and local guidance has not yet been aligned with the new CDC guidance and not all states/localities/businesses may align.

The messaging may have gotten screwed up, but it wasn't intended as advice to governments about mask mandates. It was advice to individuals.

[Sun_Worshiper]

Folks are right that you can't trust others who aren't wearing masks to be vaccinated, but you still aren't in much danger if you, yourself, are vaccinated. Those people who are unvaccinated may get sick, but if they are out unvaccinated with no mask then isn't it really on them at this point?

[clean]

Those people who are unvaccinated may get sick, but if they are out unvaccinated with no mask then isn't it really on them at this point?

While I am CURRENTLY protected against COVID, there are variants that are created every day.  It is the unmistakable nature of a virus.  Those that are accepting the risk of infection are not acting against their own health risks alone/in isolation.  They may well get sick and develop an inoculation resistant variant, ro spread one that is out there already.  As the monitoring system is reactive, not proactive, we wont KNOW if there is a vaccine avoiding variant Until it reaches a level that it can be detected... And by then, it will spread quickly as even those vaccinated are no longer immune OR taking their own precautions, we will back to where we were over a year ago!  We will be facing what India is facing today. 

So these 'decision maker' are in effect the weakest links for our societal health.  We can not, as a whole, be healthy when there are reluctant people INVITING infection! 

As I have said before, sometimes I just want to root for the virus to 'eliminate the surplus population' if idiots and assholes that unilaterally make decisions that impact the health of ALL of us!