Guardian Journalist Warns of "Earthquake"

[mahagonny]

I would agree too, but when I recently heard about 'gain of function' it's a new twist. Apparently biochemists know how to take a naturally occurring disease and tweak it to make it more virulent for experimental work. Playing with fire?

[Parasaurolophus]

I would agree too, but when I recently heard about 'gain of function' it's a new twist. Apparently biochemists know how to take a naturally occurring disease and tweak it to make it more virulent for experimental work. Playing with fire?

Yes, sometimes. There's a balance to be struck, as Robinson shows pretty persuasively. You probably don't usually want to do gain of function research on something with a totally crazy mortality rate, for instance. But it does make sense for plenty of perfectly awful and deadly illnesses, since it helps you develop vaccines, cures, etc.

[kaysixteen]

A thought experiment that has crossed my mind on occasion would be  to ask what if anything the US/ UN, etc., ought to do about it should it ever be conclusively proved that covid-19 did escape from a Chinese lab?   What about if it were also proved that covid-19 was an engineered virus made as part of a germ warfare program?   This is a very hard question, especially since the country in question is China.

[dismalist]

A thought experiment that has crossed my mind on occasion would be  to ask what if anything the US/ UN, etc., ought to do about it should it ever be conclusively proved that covid-19 did escape from a Chinese lab?   What about if it were also proved that covid-19 was an engineered virus made as part of a germ warfare program?   This is a very hard question, especially since the country in question is China.

It's a good question.

-If escaped by accident, WATCH THAT BASKET.

-If also part of a germ warfare program, 'twould be like an accidental nuclear strike. They gotta pay.

[Parasaurolophus]

-If also part of a germ warfare program, 'twould be like an accidental nuclear strike. They gotta pay.

Do you mean you have to pay, since it's a US-funded lab?

[dismalist]

-If also part of a germ warfare program, 'twould be like an accidental nuclear strike. They gotta pay.

Do you mean you have to pay, since it's a US-funded lab?

Funded does not mean controlled. And a germ warfare program would not have been funded.

[teach_write_research]

First, the bad news: Media Bias Fact Check rates The Guardian only 'mixed' (not high or very high) for factual accuracy.

The good news: this article seems pretty well grounded and reasonable to this reader.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/01/wuhan-coronavirus-lab-leak-covid-virus-origins-china

Discuss?

1. It's an opinion piece, not investigative science journalism.
2. If your scientific process is using strong inference then the goal is to rule out the weaker hypothesis based on the available evidence, with some room for decision error, not "prove" a hypothesis.
3. Our minds like certainty, confirming our beliefs, and seeing causation even when it's not there. A human-caused origin of COVID-19 makes our intuitive minds happy and thus such explanations appeal to us. We want to -blame- someone which is cause-effect thinking. Pursuing the random dynamic multifactorial origin through nonhuman animal - human transmission requires us to temper our default thinking and dig into a complex system that is more challenging to explain. The sound bites and headline ledes for that are not as provocative.
4. Risk management and lab safety are important. Absolutely investigate the Wuhan lab, but that still does not rule out nonhuman animal - human transmission and the messy process of virus organisms.
5. Everyone is coping with some level of stress and trauma. I get it. Even opinion columnists. It can be comforting to get mad at careless scientists and political operatives.

[Anselm]

FWIW, some random dude on the internet claimed that he worked in biological warfare for the US military.  He maintained that we don't use viruses because they are too hard to control.   I have no documentation for this but everything I have read on the topic seems to confirm this.  I see no motive for the Chinese to release a virus knowing it would hurt the global economy, especially their own.

[downer]

If any country did cause a global virus, even by mistake, shouldn't the rest of the world be entitled to compensation?

[mahagonny]

If any country did cause a global virus, even by mistake, shouldn't the rest of the world be entitled to compensation?

Sure, but not from those responsible. From the great great grandchildren of the responsible party, or anyone who looks like them.

[jimbogumbo]

FWIW, some random dude on the internet claimed that he worked in biological warfare for the US military.  He maintained that we don't use viruses because they are too hard to control.   I have no documentation for this but everything I have read on the topic seems to confirm this.  I see no motive for the Chinese to release a virus knowing it would hurt the global economy, especially their own.

Was he a Stephen King reader?

[marshwiggle]

FWIW, some random dude on the internet claimed that he worked in biological warfare for the US military.  He maintained that we don't use viruses because they are too hard to control.   I have no documentation for this but everything I have read on the topic seems to confirm this.  I see no motive for the Chinese to release a virus knowing it would hurt the global economy, especially their own.

Was he a Stephen King reader?

If you want to read about a lab leak, read (non-fiction) "The Hot Zone", which was about an *Ebola leak in the DC area. It's the one non-fiction book I've read that I would describe as a page-turner.

*turned out to be a non-human transmissible variant, but it did get out.

[Stockmann]

How would you even prove it either way? There's no obvious motive for a deliberate release, but proving or disproving accidental release seems close to impossible. The media had reported that scientists studying the virus had seen no signs of it being artificially modified - but a lab could have wild strains, so that doesn't truly rule anything out. Who would even conduct an investigation, esp. since it clearly would get nowhere without China's cooperation? The WHO, which has made its own blunders and is clearly and blatantly beholden to China?

[mahagonny]

Prove neglecting of normal caution, irresponsibility? If you're talking about the small potatoes of destruction of property, there's malicious destruction of property, wanton destruction of property and just bad driving that means you're on the hook for the repairs. It would be a colossal task to calculate the damages.

[Stockmann]

Prove neglecting of normal caution, irresponsibility?

Again, how would anyone prove that, since China surely wouldn't cooperate with an investigation whose outcome wasn't a foregone conclusion? Even if there Chinese cooperation, and there were an impartial investigation, everyone in that institute, responsible or not, whether there was negligence or not, would be in CYA mode. Even if you did prove that they were negligent, that's different from proving that they did in fact accidentally release the virus or whatever.

...If you're talking about the small potatoes of destruction of property, there's malicious destruction of property, wanton destruction of property and just bad driving that means you're on the hook for the repairs. It would be a colossal task to calculate the damages.

As well as a pointless one. Even if you somehow gathered "enough" (by what standards?) evidence, China would surely deny it, and who the hell can make China pay, even if "convicted" by, well, who exactly? China has grown significantly stronger since the beginning of the pandemic. Also, there are tons of leaders and former leaders who would surely not be supportive of negligence-related pandemic charges that could eventually apply to them, from Trump to Brazil's Bolsonaro (and there are Brazilians actively seeking ICC involvement in pandemic-related crimes against humanity charges against Bolsonaro) to the government of Tanzania to that of India to... it's a long list.