Election 2021! (Canada votes again...)

[Parasaurolophus]

So... September 20th, friends. Wanna kvetch or talk about it?

I see the Tories released their platform this morning. And I see that they're sticking to their last plan for climate change: personal low-carbon savings accounts...


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I guess I shouldn't be surprised, given that they weren't able to get the party membership to vote in favour of stating that climate change is real.

[Morden]

It's depressing that we're doing this again so soon. And for what? So the Liberals can form another minority government.

[traductio]

My application for Canadian citizenship is still being processed. I had hoped to vote in the next election, whenever it was, either provincial or federal. But processing times, which were already long, are even longer now because of Covid.

Alas.

[kaysixteen]

Why did the govt call for an early election,  if the results of said election will likely be status quo ante.   IOW, since Canada, unlike the UK, allows for a minority government, why would the opposition majority-totalling parties bother to collapse the government and force an early vote, especially since they may end up worse than they are now?

[Morden]

The opposition parties didn't force the vote. The minority Liberal government called the early election because they think that they can possibly get a majority while the other parties are in (at least partial) disarray. If the Liberal party gets another minority, they can make deals to govern. If the Conservative party happens to get a minority government, it's unlikely to survive long. And then we go to the polls again.

[kaysixteen]

Ok-- are they right to think this?   I get that there are several parties with parliamentary seats, but what is the nature of their current 'disarray'?

[Parasaurolophus]

Ok-- are they right to think this?   I get that there are several parties with parliamentary seats, but what is the nature of their current 'disarray'?

The Tory leader is polling at the lowest point in the last twenty years, well behind the last useless idiot they ran. The Libs are polling high from COVID management. The Bloc is weak a d fractious, and the Greens were in the process of ousting their leader. The NDP is the only opposition party that was holding steady.

[marshwiggle]

The opposition parties didn't force the vote. The minority Liberal government called the early election because they think that they can possibly get a majority while the other parties are in (at least partial) disarray. If the Liberal party gets another minority, they can make deals to govern. If the Conservative party happens to get a minority government, it's unlikely to survive long. And then we go to the polls again.

A similar situation happened provincially in Ontario in 1990. From Wikipedia:

The governing Ontario Liberal Party led by Premier David Peterson was unexpectedly defeated. Although the Peterson government, and Peterson himself, were very popular, he was accused of opportunism in calling an election just three years into his mandate. In a shocking upset, the New Democratic Party, led by Bob Rae, won a majority government. This marked the first time the NDP had won government east of Manitoba, and to date the only time the NDP formed the government in Ontario.

It doesn't always work out as planned.....

[Hibush]

A similar situation happened provincially in Ontario in 1990. From Wikipedia:

Although the Peterson government, and Peterson himself, were very popular, he was accused of opportunism in calling an election just three years into his mandate.

It doesn't always work out as planned.....

A part of the public appreciates it when the politicians that represent their views act opportunistically to increase their power. That means the politicians are skilled at politics. It creates a synergy between constituents and politicians so that part of the electorate gets what it wants.

Sometimes I wonder how much of the left-leaning electorate punishes politicians for doing the things it takes to get left-leaning policies enacted, like winning a majority mandate. It sounds like exactly that happened to the Liberals in Ontario.

[Parasaurolophus]

A part of the public appreciates it when the politicians that represent their views act opportunistically to increase their power. That means the politicians are skilled at politics. It creates a synergy between constituents and politicians so that part of the electorate gets what it wants.

Sometimes I wonder how much of the left-leaning electorate punishes politicians for doing the things it takes to get left-leaning policies enacted, like winning a majority mandate. It sounds like exactly that happened to the Liberals in Ontario.

Well, in that case it was the left that ousted the centrists.

It's worth observing, however, that Ontario politics still (thirty years later!) uses the bogeyman of the one and only NDP government in that province, despite innumerable (worse!)  scandals and serious fuckups from the Liberals and Conservatives which get memory-holed every few years.

[marshwiggle]

A part of the public appreciates it when the politicians that represent their views act opportunistically to increase their power. That means the politicians are skilled at politics. It creates a synergy between constituents and politicians so that part of the electorate gets what it wants.

Sometimes I wonder how much of the left-leaning electorate punishes politicians for doing the things it takes to get left-leaning policies enacted, like winning a majority mandate. It sounds like exactly that happened to the Liberals in Ontario.

Well, in that case it was the left that ousted the centrists.

It's worth observing, however, that Ontario politics still (thirty years later!) uses the bogeyman of the one and only NDP government in that province, despite innumerable (worse!)  scandals and serious fuckups from the Liberals and Conservatives which get memory-holed every few years.

Well, the left in Ontario still use the bogeyman of the Mike Harris Conservative government (which followed the NDP government), so there are enough bogeymen to go around.

[Parasaurolophus]

At least there's been more than one Conservative government on which to base that induction.

[kaysixteen]

Correct me if I err, but doesn't Trudeau have some real scandal issues?   Mightn't it have been better for the Liberals to move on from him, lest the voters do it for them?

[Parasaurolophus]

Correct me if I err, but doesn't Trudeau have some real scandal issues?   Mightn't it have been better for the Liberals to move on from him, lest the voters do it for them?

Nothing major. Governments here can rack up some pretty hefty scandals before they get turfed (and they tend to, over a governing period of 5-10+ years). The previous Conservative government was no exception.

Besides which, they can't turf him (or: couldn't). It's incredibly hard to get rid of a party leader, and it requires a leadership review. For the Liberals and Conservatives, those only happen at the convention following an electoral loss. And the vote threshold is really high--I don't remember it offhand for the Libs, but think along the lines of 66% or so. Plus, Trudeau is a net winner for the party. He's fairly charismatic, and he drives out the votes. Look at all the goofballs they tried before him.

[Morden]

Lots of scandals, but nothing sticks. https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/a-short-history-of-justin-trudeaus-scandal-plagued-liberal-government