Election 2021! (Canada votes again...)

[marshwiggle]

Correct me if I err, but doesn't Trudeau have some real scandal issues?   Mightn't it have been better for the Liberals to move on from him, lest the voters do it for them?

Nothing major. Governments here can rack up some pretty hefty scandals before they get turfed (and they tend to, over a governing period of 5-10+ years). The previous Conservative government was no exception.

Besides which, they can't turf him (or: couldn't). It's incredibly hard to get rid of a party leader, and it requires a leadership review. For the Liberals and Conservatives, those only happen at the convention following an electoral loss. And the vote threshold is really high--I don't remember it offhand for the Libs, but think along the lines of 66% or so. Plus, Trudeau is a net winner for the party. He's fairly charismatic, and he drives out the votes. Look at all the goofballs they tried before him.

In my decades of voting in elections and observing others, more are decided by people NOT liking the alternative(s) to a candidate or party than by people EXCITED about voting for a candidate or party. This applies across the political spectrum. The party/leader combination that annoys the fewest people succeeds.

[Parasaurolophus]

Well, that was a pretty shitty set of debates. Everyone disappointed, save Anamie Paul, who shone by  comparison. Ugh.

[MarathonRunner]

Well, that was a pretty shitty set of debates. Everyone disappointed, save Anamie Paul, who shone by  comparison. Ugh.

Didn't watch the debates, but everything I've read makes me glad I didn't waste my time. Not thrilled by any of the parties. I've always voted on platforms and have switched who I've voted for over the years. Still sent in my mail ballot. Looks to be another minority government if polls are correct (either Lib or Con) so not sure why a vote was called during an ongoing pandemic, but whatever. I'm not a politician or political scientist.

Wish all parties would condemn the protests outside of hospitals and the harassment of health care workers and patients. Protest at the provincial legislatures, not as hospitals! Health care workers and patients don't set policy (I agree 100% with vaccine and mask mandates).

[Kron3007]

Correct me if I err, but doesn't Trudeau have some real scandal issues?   Mightn't it have been better for the Liberals to move on from him, lest the voters do it for them?

Nothing major. Governments here can rack up some pretty hefty scandals before they get turfed (and they tend to, over a governing period of 5-10+ years). The previous Conservative government was no exception.

Besides which, they can't turf him (or: couldn't). It's incredibly hard to get rid of a party leader, and it requires a leadership review. For the Liberals and Conservatives, those only happen at the convention following an electoral loss. And the vote threshold is really high--I don't remember it offhand for the Libs, but think along the lines of 66% or so. Plus, Trudeau is a net winner for the party. He's fairly charismatic, and he drives out the votes. Look at all the goofballs they tried before him.

In my decades of voting in elections and observing others, more are decided by people NOT liking the alternative(s) to a candidate or party than by people EXCITED about voting for a candidate or party. This applies across the political spectrum. The party/leader combination that annoys the fewest people succeeds.

Yeah, it is quite demoralizing.  I dont know many people who actually vote "for" a party at all.  I blame our voting system (and Trudeau for waffling on electoral reform) for a lot of it.  My riding is "safe" for a party I dont care for, so I dont even know why I bother voting as it really has no impact.  I still vote, but it seems so pointless.

I really think the NDP would do a lot better if we had a different system.  They lose so many votes to the liberals in anti-conservative votes...

[Parasaurolophus]

I really think the NDP would do a lot better if we had a different system.  They lose so many votes to the liberals in anti-conservative votes...

Yeah, they'd probably form the government once in a while. Or, at least, come close and be the official opposition.

The other thing I wish is that I didn't have to feel like a Conservative win was such a fucking disaster every time. Maybe the party could re-split and we could get the ProgCons back?


I voted today.

[marshwiggle]

I really think the NDP would do a lot better if we had a different system.  They lose so many votes to the liberals in anti-conservative votes...

Yeah, they'd probably form the government once in a while. Or, at least, come close and be the official opposition.

Except for Roy Romanow in Saskatchewan, they haven't had a great track record when they've formed provincial governments.

[Kron3007]

I really think the NDP would do a lot better if we had a different system.  They lose so many votes to the liberals in anti-conservative votes...

Yeah, they'd probably form the government once in a while. Or, at least, come close and be the official opposition.

Except for Roy Romanow in Saskatchewan, they haven't had a great track record when they've formed provincial governments.

I disagree.  They have proporionatly run more balanced budgets and lower deficits than the PC or Liberals.  Check the numbers...

I know there is more to governing than deficits and budgets, but this is the usual concern people have regarding NDP and it is not founded on facts.

[marshwiggle]

I really think the NDP would do a lot better if we had a different system.  They lose so many votes to the liberals in anti-conservative votes...

Yeah, they'd probably form the government once in a while. Or, at least, come close and be the official opposition.

Except for Roy Romanow in Saskatchewan, they haven't had a great track record when they've formed provincial governments.

I disagree.  They have proporionatly run more balanced budgets and lower deficits than the PC or Liberals.  Check the numbers...

I know there is more to governing than deficits and budgets, but this is the usual concern people have regarding NDP and it is not founded on facts.

I'll correct my statement above. In a few provinces, (not just Saskatchewan),  the NDP have solid history.
The NDP has been a consistent contender in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, BC, and Yukon, having formed the government several times in each of those. However, in other provinces they have been one hit wonders.

• Ontario; 1990-1995, lost official status in 1999 and 2003
• Alberta; 2015-2019, only time a first term government hasn't gotten a second term
• Nova Scotia; 2009-2013

So in Ontario and Alberta they really didn't convince voters once they actually formed the government.

[Kron3007]

So what you are saying is that they have mostly performed well, but there are a few exceptions?  Cant we say that for any party?

You bring up  Roy Romanow, didn't he clean up a conservative disaster?

It's crazy how much Rae dominates any NDP talk, even though he is a bit of an outlier (and was in a tough situation in general).  I dont know that Alberta even counts.  It was an anomoly that they were elected and really didnt mess anything up that I know of.

[marshwiggle]

So what you are saying is that they have mostly performed well, but there are a few exceptions?  Cant we say that for any party?

You bring up  Roy Romanow, didn't he clean up a conservative disaster?

From wikipedia:

Romanow's government was more conservative than previous NDP administrations, and was considered a practitioner of Third Way policies. Romanow, who inherited a $14 billion debt from the previous Conservative government, eliminated the annual budgetary deficit by closing rural hospitals, cutting services and raising taxes. Romanow's government also had the benefit of substantially lower interest rates at a national level than did his predecessor in the 1980s. The Romanow NDP explained the cutbacks to the left wing of the party by claiming Romanow's range of political action was limited by the large debt accumulated by previous governments.

So yes he inherited a big deficit from the Conservatives.

[Ed Schreyer in Manitoba] differed in some ways from the previous leaders of Manitoba's NDP: he came from a rural background and was not committed to socialism as an ideology; he won the support of many centrist voters who had not previously identified with the party.

So in both these cases, the successful NDP leaders avoided following the typical NDP ideology.  (In Ontario, Bob Rae angered unions by having to reduce the deficit.)

[Kron3007]

So what you are saying is that they have mostly performed well, but there are a few exceptions?  Cant we say that for any party?

You bring up  Roy Romanow, didn't he clean up a conservative disaster?

From wikipedia:

Romanow's government was more conservative than previous NDP administrations, and was considered a practitioner of Third Way policies. Romanow, who inherited a $14 billion debt from the previous Conservative government, eliminated the annual budgetary deficit by closing rural hospitals, cutting services and raising taxes. Romanow's government also had the benefit of substantially lower interest rates at a national level than did his predecessor in the 1980s. The Romanow NDP explained the cutbacks to the left wing of the party by claiming Romanow's range of political action was limited by the large debt accumulated by previous governments.

So yes he inherited a big deficit from the Conservatives.

[Ed Schreyer in Manitoba] differed in some ways from the previous leaders of Manitoba's NDP: he came from a rural background and was not committed to socialism as an ideology; he won the support of many centrist voters who had not previously identified with the party.

So in both these cases, the successful NDP leaders avoided following the typical NDP ideology.  (In Ontario, Bob Rae angered unions by having to reduce the deficit.)

Sure, and Harper ran massive deficits despite conservative ideology (not a criticism, just a fact). 

All this shows me is that the NDP can be fiscally responsible and is not the harbinger of economic collapse.  They may advocate for left leaning policies, but in practice typically do not implement them when not fiscally possible/responsible.  Again, if you look provincially, the NDP balances more budgets than liberals or conservatives. 

I'm not trying to convince anyone they should vote NDP if they are not aligned in principle, just trying to dispel the myth that they are absolute economic disasters since it simply isn't backed up by facts.  For anyone who agrees with NDP principles but is fearful of the economic side, I think this is important.



   

[marshwiggle]

Sure, and Harper ran massive deficits despite conservative ideology (not a criticism, just a fact). 

All this shows me is that the NDP can be fiscally responsible and is not the harbinger of economic collapse.  They may advocate for left leaning policies, but in practice typically do not implement them when not fiscally possible/responsible.  Again, if you look provincially, the NDP balances more budgets than liberals or conservatives. 

I'm not trying to convince anyone they should vote NDP if they are not aligned in principle, just trying to dispel the myth that they are absolute economic disasters since it simply isn't backed up by facts.  For anyone who agrees with NDP principles but is fearful of the economic side, I think this is important.

It illustrates the basic principles that any party, to get elected, has to move relatively close to the political centre, since that's where most voters are, and that once governing, their range of options is much narrower than their platforms would suggest because they have to deal with reality.

On a side note, the best finance minister in a long time was actually Paul Martin, who did more to get the budget in line than any conservatives before or after (as you suggest).

I think the NDP's limitations federally have at least as much to do with being extremely socially progressive as with their economic platform. Since most voters are near the centre, being even more woke than the Liberals is going to prevent them being considered by many.

[Kron3007]

Sure, and Harper ran massive deficits despite conservative ideology (not a criticism, just a fact). 

All this shows me is that the NDP can be fiscally responsible and is not the harbinger of economic collapse.  They may advocate for left leaning policies, but in practice typically do not implement them when not fiscally possible/responsible.  Again, if you look provincially, the NDP balances more budgets than liberals or conservatives. 

I'm not trying to convince anyone they should vote NDP if they are not aligned in principle, just trying to dispel the myth that they are absolute economic disasters since it simply isn't backed up by facts.  For anyone who agrees with NDP principles but is fearful of the economic side, I think this is important.

It illustrates the basic principles that any party, to get elected, has to move relatively close to the political centre, since that's where most voters are, and that once governing, their range of options is much narrower than their platforms would suggest because they have to deal with reality.

On a side note, the best finance minister in a long time was actually Paul Martin, who did more to get the budget in line than any conservatives before or after (as you suggest).

I think the NDP's limitations federally have at least as much to do with being extremely socially progressive as with their economic platform. Since most voters are near the centre, being even more woke than the Liberals is going to prevent them being considered by many.

Well, I think their real problem is our electoral system.  I know many people who vote liberal simply to vote against conservatives.  This is why Justin waffled on his electoral reform promises.  He used it to swing a lot of would be NDP voters to vote for him, then back-peddled because it would be bad for liberals longer term.  Yet, many will still vote liberal as the perceived lesser of two evils.

Canada is generally left leaning, so I really dont think it is their social liberalism that sinks them.

[Parasaurolophus]

• Alberta; 2015-2019, only time a first term government hasn't gotten a second term

That was a weird outlier, and you can't conclude much from it. But you should note that the NDP in Alberta are the only party in Alberta, other than the Conservatives (now the UCP), to have formed a government in the last what, seventy years? (Edit: correction, 44 years.) Alberta is a fucked up province with one-party rule, and that kind of inertia is hard to overcome. (And yes, I've lived there.)

And, if we're being at all fair to them, they did a fine job of governing Alberta in that period. And since the last provincial election was in 2019, it's not like they've had much a shot at a second kick at the can. IIRC, however, current polling in Alberta has the NDP doing very well, because Jason Kenney's government has been an utter failure.

I think the NDP's limitations federally have at least as much to do with being extremely socially progressive as with their economic platform. Since most voters are near the centre, being even more woke than the Liberals is going to prevent them being considered by many.

This is absolutely the wrong diagnosis. Kron3007 is correct: the NDP routinely bleeds support to the Liberals when they run left (especially in Ontario). A swing like that is exactly what got Trudeau into power the first time. In provinces like BC, the three-way contest between Liberals, NDP, and Greens likewise splits the vote just enough to keep the NDP and Greens out of those seats.

I suspect things would change significantly even without electoral reform if only a third party could manage to form a government just once, since so much of what pushes left-leaning people to vote Liberal is just the feeling that the NDP and Greens (or Bloc!) are not serious contenders. But FPTP and a united Conservative Party make that very unlikely.

[Morden]

That was a weird outlier, and you can't conclude much from it. But you should note that the NDP in Alberta are the only party in Alberta, other than the Conservatives (now the UCP), to have formed a government in the last what, seventy years? Alberta is a fucked up province with one-party rule, and that kind of inertia is hard to overcome. (And yes, I've lived there.)

And, if we're being at all fair to them, they did a fine job of governing Alberta in that period. And since the last provincial election was in 2019, it's not like they've had much a shot at a second kick at the can. IIRC, however, current polling in Alberta has the NDP doing very well, because Jason Kenney's government has been an utter failure.

Alberta is weird, and it's worth noting that before the Conservatives broke into power in the 1970s, Albertans consistently voted Social Credit. They just haven't got the hang of a two (or more) party system. Notley's NDP did a really good job and were fiscally responsible during their brief time in power (unlike Kenney).