Canadian labour trend: switching jobs rather than joining unions

[marshwiggle]

From the cbc:

With inflation cutting into workers' spending power and businesses complaining of staff shortages, you might think now would be the time for a dramatic resurgence in the kind of labour activity Canada has not seen since the 1970s.

But, so far, people who study the trade union movement in Canada say it's not happening.
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Instead, data seems to show that the workers who are keeping up with inflation so far are those who take individual — rather than collective — action to fight for better wages and working conditions: They are switching jobs.
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A study titled Talent Trends, released Friday by the Conference Board of Canada, shows that costly labour shortages reported by business groups may be creating an opportunity for those who want to switch jobs in search of better pay and conditions.
What the study shows is that "voluntary turnover" — not being fired or laid off — is a rising trend, hitting a seven-year high of 9.1 per cent in 2020-2021.

This seems to suggest people feel a greater sense of agency than in the past.

[mahagonny]

From the cbc:

With inflation cutting into workers' spending power and businesses complaining of staff shortages, you might think now would be the time for a dramatic resurgence in the kind of labour activity Canada has not seen since the 1970s.

But, so far, people who study the trade union movement in Canada say it's not happening.
.
.
.
Instead, data seems to show that the workers who are keeping up with inflation so far are those who take individual — rather than collective — action to fight for better wages and working conditions: They are switching jobs.
.
.
.
A study titled Talent Trends, released Friday by the Conference Board of Canada, shows that costly labour shortages reported by business groups may be creating an opportunity for those who want to switch jobs in search of better pay and conditions.
What the study shows is that "voluntary turnover" — not being fired or laid off — is a rising trend, hitting a seven-year high of 9.1 per cent in 2020-2021.

This seems to suggest people feel a greater sense of agency than in the past.

When we started our union a few years ago, I felt that taking the plunge, signing up, and showing my face was a sign of recognizing my personal agency. Given that we were afraid some of us would be discontinued for our union activism, which of course did happen to several. Whereas not being able, or believing we weren't able, to advocate for ourselves as a group would have felt like being stymied.

[Kron3007]

From the cbc:

With inflation cutting into workers' spending power and businesses complaining of staff shortages, you might think now would be the time for a dramatic resurgence in the kind of labour activity Canada has not seen since the 1970s.

But, so far, people who study the trade union movement in Canada say it's not happening.
.
.
.
Instead, data seems to show that the workers who are keeping up with inflation so far are those who take individual — rather than collective — action to fight for better wages and working conditions: They are switching jobs.
.
.
.
A study titled Talent Trends, released Friday by the Conference Board of Canada, shows that costly labour shortages reported by business groups may be creating an opportunity for those who want to switch jobs in search of better pay and conditions.
What the study shows is that "voluntary turnover" — not being fired or laid off — is a rising trend, hitting a seven-year high of 9.1 per cent in 2020-2021.

This seems to suggest people feel a greater sense of agency than in the past.

Yet Unionized workers in Canada make approximately $5/hour more than non-unionized workers, so the advantage is still pretty clear. 

What we see in this type of data is just a snap-shot of this point in time.  I imagine that individual actions will show up first, but we will see collective bargaining begin to increase steam as the pressures increase and they will have the bigger impact. 

[dismalist]

This seems to suggest people feel a greater sense of agency than in the past.

Nah, this just means the market is working.

The effect of inflation on the labor market depends crucially on whether the inflation is unexpected or expected.

If a surprise, real wages fall and there is an employment boom. Looks like that's the case now, bearing in mind that Covid gave us a negative productivity shock.

If expected, nominal wages rise with inflation, leaving real wages unchanged, union or no union, and there is no employment boom.

I imagine that individual actions will show up first, but we will see collective bargaining begin to increase steam as the pressures increase and they will have the bigger impact.

Yes, when inflation starts, it's easier for one person to change jobs than to immediately annul a union contract, renegotiate, and get higher pay from day two.

[nebo113]

And Canada has national health care, so switching jobs doesn't involve losing health care benefits as it often does in the US.

[marshwiggle]

And Canada has national health care, so switching jobs doesn't involve losing health care benefits as it often does in the US.

That's been the case for decades, so it's not responsible for the recent trend. (And, if I recall correctly, unionization is higher in Canada than the US, and there are more protections for unions in Canada than in the US. So the trend of people charting their own course rather than relying on unions is notable.)

[Kron3007]

And Canada has national health care, so switching jobs doesn't involve losing health care benefits as it often does in the US.

That's been the case for decades, so it's not responsible for the recent trend. (And, if I recall correctly, unionization is higher in Canada than the US, and there are more protections for unions in Canada than in the US. So the trend of people charting their own course rather than relying on unions is notable.)

Kind of depends on which people are changing jobs.  It is likely that most people changing jobs at the moment are not unionized in the first place.  When you say they are ding better at keeping up with inflation, they are already an average of $5/hour lower than unionized workers, so the gap may be closing (for now), but they are still behind.  I am skeptical that many people are leaving their union jobs for non-union jobs (since they would most likely take a pay cut to do so).

Unions will be slow to react since they have collective agreements in place already and any negotiation has to wait for contract renewal.  Add to this that the Ontario government (over 1/3 of the country) currently has a cap on public union salary increases.  Long term, I am pretty sure you will see unionized worker catch up, and likely outpace non-unionized.

[pedanticromantic]

I think it has more to do with covid and having some "breathing space" to reflect and figure out what you want and what you're willing to put up with. People put time in up-skilling and their resumes and went out and found new jobs, whereas before they would come home at the end of a long day and flop in front of the TV, too tired to think ahead.
Unless I'm mistaken and this is a pre-covid trend.
But if only those of us in the public sector had the freedom to change so easily for a better rise. I'm in Ontario and made the mistake of moving to a new university in covid. I moved from a place where we were just coming to the end of Ford's 3-year pay freeze to a university where we're just starting the 3-year pay freeze, so I will have had 6 years pay freeze by the time it's over.

[Hibush]

The "great resignation" has been described as people quitting crappy jobs, with a remarkable number voluntarily out of the labor market.

At the bottom, people are leaving low-wage jobs that lack benefits and have poor working conditions. They are largely finding better jobs because business have to provide a better deal to find employees.

At the older end, people are retiring early even from well-paid jobs where the stress isn't worth putting up with.

Neither if these sets of workers seem to have union as a major factor.