What are the odds for a 2nd civil war?

[secundem_artem]

Today's NY Times reviewed 2 new books that discuss the potential for a 2nd civil war after the 2024 election.  See link below.  I've seen similar discussions in other media.  If Trump wins the presidency in 2024, I think the odds will decrease significantly.  All of the woke-ists that make up far too many Democrats won't be happy, but at least they tend not to be well armed.  Democracy will die, but the Chinese seem to be doing OK without it.

But if Trump loses.....  40 million well armed MAGA hats, armed to the teeth and spoiling for a fight.  States sending "alternative" electors to DC to certify the election.  Kamala Harris refusing to do so.  Election gets thrown into the House.  Repeat of January 6th only this time with actual gunfire and hangings in the public square.

One of the books reviewed predicts, not actually a civil war, but more along the lines of The Troubles in Northern Ireland.

I got no crystal ball, but I'd put the odds of violence at some non-zero level.  And I'm thinking seriously of getting a gun and a carry permit.

Call me paranoid if you like.  Or at least try and talk me in off the ledge.

See: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/18/books/review/how-civil-wars-start-barbara-f-walter-the-next-civil-war-stephen-marche.html?searchResultPosition=1

[downer]

There is already a good deal of violence in the US. And there are plenty of armed militias around -- they have been in existence for a long time. It's easy to imagine violence increasing and the basic elements of democracy breaking down even more than they have up to now. Either post election, or with some other major upheaval. Disruptions are likely to be coming more frequently with growing international political instability and climate issues.

But will the US become ravaged by fighting in every street? Will we start resembling some version of The Walking Dead? I doubt it. As now, violence will be largely confined to particular areas and populations. People in wealthy neighborhoods will continue to be fine.

[dismalist]

What are the odds for a 2nd civil war?

Zero.

Commercial books are commercial -- they're supposed to make money. And here we are, discussing them. Similarity to what neurotics get us to do -- talk about them -- is uncanny.

As I've said, system is working.

[Anselm]

People with homes, families and pensions do not engage in armed rebellion unless they are desperate with their backs against the wall.   The odds are very close to zero right now.

[marshwiggle]

Today's NY Times reviewed 2 new books that discuss the potential for a 2nd civil war after the 2024 election.  See link below.  I've seen similar discussions in other media.  If Trump wins the presidency in 2024, I think the odds will decrease significantly.  All of the woke-ists that make up far too many Democrats won't be happy, but at least they tend not to be well armed.  Democracy will die, but the Chinese seem to be doing OK without it.

But if Trump loses.....  40 million well armed MAGA hats, armed to the teeth and spoiling for a fight. 

Both of these scenarios rely on Trump getting the nomination (or, in theory, running as an independent). I wouldn't put the odds above 20% of Trump getting the nomination, and the odds of a successful independent bid way below that. Many of the people who voted for Trump did so because he was the Republican candidate, in spite of their misgivings about him personally. His personal "brand" is just not that popular. The fact that his fans are especially noisy doesn't change that.

[mahagonny]

The New York Times is more likely to go under than the USA is. That's probably one reason they are thinking of such gloomy things lately.

[Parasaurolophus]

Civil war: slim. The main path seems like it would be for someone in control of a state to defect, and that's highly unlikely. On the other hand, the chances of another insurrection--perhaps a successul one, which might subsequently be put down--are non-negligible.

Terrorism: very high. We've already seen it.

[mahagonny]

My wife thinks admitting you're a republican (I'm a registered democrat though, so far) is tantamount to saying 'I get up every morning, make coffee, then perform devil worship rituals.' So the Civil War has been here for some time, but it's a Cold War.

[Ruralguy]

Agree: more violent insurrection w/terrorism either coordinated or not, I think is likely. I won't necessarily say "highly likely." I just think its very possible.
Civil War: depends on how long the above lasts. I'm going to go with unlikely if one means something more than days long, many deaths, secession of states, neighbors killing neighbors, etc.

I'm not convinced that the left will be non violent if they lose, but I think violence in the form of a similar insurrection but with politician death, etc. is more likely to be rightist.

Mahagonny is on point I must say. There was a day when the other side was simply wrong, not monstrous. I mean people said bad things about political rivals but it wasn't so pervasive and continuous, extreme. Less cheer leading and direct advice from press and on air talent.

[apl68]

Given the extremes of political feeling and polarization we've seen in recent years, it's actually striking just how little political violence we've seen thus far.  In some parts of the world hundreds of people would have died in riots by now.  In earlier eras of our own history we'd have seen some quite bloody rioting by now.

I do believe, as some above say, that domestic terrorism is a growing risk.  I'm not sanguine about our prospects of seeing healing of our divisions.  But authors and pundits raising the specter of civil war is as irresponsibly alarmist as shouting fire in a crowded theater.

[marshwiggle]

Given the extremes of political feeling and polarization we've seen in recent years, it's actually striking just how little political violence we've seen thus far.  In some parts of the world hundreds of people would have died in riots by now.  In earlier eras of our own history we'd have seen some quite bloody rioting by now.

I do believe, as some above say, that domestic terrorism is a growing risk.  I'm not sanguine about our prospects of seeing healing of our divisions.  But authors and pundits raising the specter of civil war is as irresponsibly alarmist as shouting fire in a crowded theater.

The problem is that many of the people with the biggest platforms, such as politicians and the media, choose to fan the flames in order to get attention, rather than choosing to attempt to calm things down, which is better for society but gets them less visibility.

[mahagonny]

Another thing that could bring upheaval: if the republicans take back the Congress in November, Senator Tom Cotton  may move for impeachment, charging that Biden is neglecting his duty to uphold the law. Perhaps Ted Cruz would be involved and he's a pretty effective interrogator. Southern border, out of control illegal immigration.
ETA: or maybe they decide 'let him stay. Weak leader, the longer he sticks around the more the democrats bicker among themselves.'

[quasihumanist]

We should note blue state initiated breakup looks very different from red state initiated breakup.

Blue state initiated breakup looks like federal government shutdown, followed by blue state citizens and companies largely ending federal tax payments, followed by blue states taking over many federal government functions.  This works because most blue states are net contributors to the federal government budget.

Red states don't have that kind of economic leverage; however in this day and age I don't think folks will have much appetite for keeping folks that clearly don't want to be part of the same country as you from seceding.  Maybe a bit of terrorism, or a few riots.

The risks are longer-term.  Imagine the Confederacy had been allowed to go their own way.  There's no way they would've kept a democratic government; at best they'd have a history like Brazil or Argentina (each with a history of military coups), and at worst something like Colombia or Guatemala.

[mahagonny]

People with homes, families and pensions do not engage in armed rebellion unless they are desperate with their backs against the wall.   The odds are very close to zero right now.

Yet, Americans report being more unhappy than ever:   https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/02/politics/unhappiness-americans-gallup-analysis/index.html

...while others are getting angry:    https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/592647-us-trucker-convoy-coming-joe-biden-will-ignore-protests-at-his-peril

[pgher]

I read a good article on this issue today:
https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/warnings-of-civil-war-risk-harming-efforts-against-political-violence/

Short version: no risk of civil war, but there is a risk of political violence. The more precise we are in our language and analysis, the more likely we can address it and turn away from the path of violence.