Voting Day in the United States

[mahagonny]

Despite this thread's title, I somehow suspect that no-one currently posting to it will care that the Dems now have a 50(51) hold on the Senate.

Just an observation...

M

Better change that: I'm thrilled! Terrific news to wake up to this morning. I actually clicked over here to see if anyone else was happy.

congratulations. look for democratic officials to complain about your neglect of the southern border & urban crime. that's the thing about holding office. sometimes there's work involved.

[jimbogumbo]

Despite this thread's title, I somehow suspect that no-one currently posting to it will care that the Dems now have a 50(51) hold on the Senate.

Just an observation...

M

That is all my wife and I have been thinking about (almost) for days. We were ecstatic last night.

[lightning]

Weeeeeeeeellllll...no.

Trump is clearly a hard right phenomenon.  As I've posted many times, the GOP of today is not the GOP of my parents' generation and certainly not a conservative of the Reagan era.  Compared to Trump, Nixon was a Cub Scout, and the GOP did the legal, honorable thing in regards to #37.

Nevertheless, Trump has had the stalwart support of the GOP since he emerged from the swamp.

It is fair to say that not all conservatives are Trumpists, but there are enough conservatives who will not disavow Trump even if he shoots someone in the middle of the street that the conservatives belong to him.  It is the GOP which is threatening the democratic process.  And the more rational conservatives have done very little to distance themselves from our near-miss tin plated dictator.

Conservatives are not the GOP (which is a political party with various factions) nor are they Trumpists (who are populist-nationalists).

Political parties exist to win elections. Now that the GOP has performed poorly in three consecutive elections with Trump as the leader of the party, we will see if someone like DeSantis is willing and able to displace Trump.

Yeah, now that "conservatives" are finding out that politically aligning themselves with Trump and MAGA voters is no longer expedient, they want to distance themselves from him (although not necessarily the voting block that was called the "Republican base" under Trump). For four years, though, conservatives benefited from that alignment with the MAGA wing nuts, who otherwise would have stayed on the sidelines in 2020 if it were not for Trump. And, no one will forget that, for at least four years to six years, "conservatives" = "Republican" = "Trump/MAGA." The Jan. 6 event and more importantly, the "Republican" party response stocked with "conservatives" will always remind us of that, when most conservatives and most Republicans would not condemn Trump/MAGA for the Jan. 6 invasion, and were aligned with Trump/MAGA in their practice. Don't disown Trump now--you can't. "Republicans" and "conservatives" own Trump. Trump owns the "Republicans" and "conservatives." "Republicans" and "conservatives" own Jan. 6, and they will be forever linked in history and memories.

I, too, am curious if someone like DeSantis can maintain the coalition of traditional conservatives and MAGA wing nuts, because without the wing nuts, the "Republican" party is not viable, especially with the aging-dying boomer population--where Republicans are losing one vote at a time, to death by natural causes. It should be especially concerning if the boomer voting block concentrates themselves in FL, because that's not good for winning the electoral college and the senate. The Republicans would then have to rely on the rural voting block, which is dying out economically, and nothing can stop that slow death without even more intervention from the state and federal governments, and I'm not convinced that it is in the rural identity to receive more government handouts nor do the "Democrats" feel inclined to give them more.

You are attempting to un-define as "conservative" and un-define as "Republican" to dis-include the Trump-MAGA voting block as part of the definitions (the "Republican base, as it was called for four years"). I'm not sure that is a good political strategy for the Republicans. Even more curious is, if Trump does run for president again, and if DeSantis defeats him, will the MAGA voters stay on the sidelines out of anger & protest, and allow the democratic nominee to take the presidential election, in much the same way that angry Bernie Sanders supporters stayed on the sidelines in 2020, because they didn't like Hillary Clinton. That would be devastating to the Republican party, if the "Republican base" does not want to come out and support a non-Trump Republican nominee.

[Wahoo Redux]

Despite this thread's title, I somehow suspect that no-one currently posting to it will care that the Dems now have a 50(51) hold on the Senate.

Just an observation...

M

That is all my wife and I have been thinking about (almost) for days. We were ecstatic last night.

Oh yeah.  We were aware.

[dismalist]

...

Yeah, now that "conservatives" are finding out that politically aligning themselves with Trump and MAGA voters is no longer expedient, they want to distance themselves from him (although not necessarily the voting block that was called the "Republican base" under Trump). For four years, though, conservatives benefited from that alignment with the MAGA wing nuts, who otherwise would have stayed on the sidelines in 2020 if it were not for Trump. And, no one will forget that, for at least four years to six years, "conservatives" = "Republican" = "Trump/MAGA." The Jan. 6 event and more importantly, the "Republican" party response stocked with "conservatives" will always remind us of that, when most conservatives and most Republicans would not condemn Trump/MAGA for the Jan. 6 invasion, and were aligned with Trump/MAGA in their practice. Don't disown Trump now--you can't. "Republicans" and "conservatives" own Trump. Trump owns the "Republicans" and "conservatives." "Republicans" and "conservatives" own Jan. 6, and they will be forever linked in history and memories.

I, too, am curious if someone like DeSantis can maintain the coalition of traditional conservatives and MAGA wing nuts, because without the wing nuts, the "Republican" party is not viable, especially with the aging-dying boomer population--where Republicans are losing one vote at a time, to death by natural causes. It should be especially concerning if the boomer voting block concentrates themselves in FL, because that's not good for winning the electoral college and the senate. The Republicans would then have to rely on the rural voting block, which is dying out economically, and nothing can stop that slow death without even more intervention from the state and federal governments, and I'm not convinced that it is in the rural identity to receive more government handouts nor do the "Democrats" feel inclined to give them more.

You are attempting to un-define as "conservative" and un-define as "Republican" to dis-include the Trump-MAGA voting block as part of the definitions (the "Republican base, as it was called for four years"). I'm not sure that is a good political strategy for the Republicans. Even more curious is, if Trump does run for president again, and if DeSantis defeats him, will the MAGA voters stay on the sidelines out of anger & protest, and allow the democratic nominee to take the presidential election, in much the same way that angry Bernie Sanders supporters stayed on the sidelines in 2020, because they didn't like Hillary Clinton. That would be devastating to the Republican party, if the "Republican base" does not want to come out and support a non-Trump Republican nominee.

There are interesting thoughts in there, Lightning. I just think deeper things are going on that give rise to these tendencies and personalities.

Just for starters, this map of the current real time distribution of House seats shows that the US is two countries, the interior and the coasts

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2022/house/

But that's not causal. Over a relatively short period of time, maybe 10 - 20 years, the voters for the two parties changed from mostly similar to highly divergent in education, income, age, and so on. Good charts are here https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2019/09/10/america-has-two-economies-and-theyre-diverging-fast/ The Republican voters on average are poor compared to Democratic voters.

By and large, the Republican Party has become home to the Forgotten Man. He had no place else to go. I've always seen Trump as a mere collector of these votes. Nothing depends on him.

Does this bode well for the Democratic Party in the future? Not necessarily, on account population of States changes. For whatever reason -- presumably economic and social policy -- big Democratic states are losing and big Republican states are gaining. Just as an example, if electoral votes in 2020 had been distributed as they will be in 2024, the Democrats would have received three electoral votes fewer.

[jimbogumbo]

Just for starters, this map of the current real time distribution of House seats shows that the US is two countries, the interior and the coasts

How do you account for the counter examples like IL and CO? I still think (for the most part) it is education levels and age that are the big determiners. Both mean (again, for the most part) larger cities have higher concentration of D's.

BTW, thanks to you and lightning for those two posts!

[Wahoo Redux]

Does this bode well for the Democratic Party in the future? Not necessarily, on account population of States changes. For whatever reason -- presumably economic and social policy -- big Democratic states are losing and big Republican states are gaining. Just as an example, if electoral votes in 2020 had been distributed as they will be in 2024, the Democrats would have received three electoral votes fewer.

Are these states becoming Bluer, however, like Georgia and Texas?

Who are these "forgotten men," anyway? 

[ciao_yall]

Just for starters, this map of the current real time distribution of House seats shows that the US is two countries, the interior and the coasts

How do you account for the counter examples like IL and CO? I still think (for the most part) it is education levels and age that are the big determiners. Both mean (again, for the most part) larger cities have higher concentration of D's.

BTW, thanks to you and lightning for those two posts!

At the State level it does look that way. The factor is population density. Cities are D, rural areas are R. The percentage of a state's population living in a city determines its statewide political leaning.

[ciao_yall]

Yeah, now that "conservatives" are finding out that politically aligning themselves with Trump and MAGA voters is no longer expedient, they want to distance themselves from him (although not necessarily the voting block that was called the "Republican base" under Trump). For four years, though, conservatives benefited from that alignment with the MAGA wing nuts, who otherwise would have stayed on the sidelines in 2020 if it were not for Trump. And, no one will forget that, for at least four years to six years, "conservatives" = "Republican" = "Trump/MAGA." The Jan. 6 event and more importantly, the "Republican" party response stocked with "conservatives" will always remind us of that, when most conservatives and most Republicans would not condemn Trump/MAGA for the Jan. 6 invasion, and were aligned with Trump/MAGA in their practice. Don't disown Trump now--you can't. "Republicans" and "conservatives" own Trump. Trump owns the "Republicans" and "conservatives." "Republicans" and "conservatives" own Jan. 6, and they will be forever linked in history and memories.

I, too, am curious if someone like DeSantis can maintain the coalition of traditional conservatives and MAGA wing nuts, because without the wing nuts, the "Republican" party is not viable, especially with the aging-dying boomer population--where Republicans are losing one vote at a time, to death by natural causes. It should be especially concerning if the boomer voting block concentrates themselves in FL, because that's not good for winning the electoral college and the senate. The Republicans would then have to rely on the rural voting block, which is dying out economically, and nothing can stop that slow death without even more intervention from the state and federal governments, and I'm not convinced that it is in the rural identity to receive more government handouts nor do the "Democrats" feel inclined to give them more.

You are attempting to un-define as "conservative" and un-define as "Republican" to dis-include the Trump-MAGA voting block as part of the definitions (the "Republican base, as it was called for four years"). I'm not sure that is a good political strategy for the Republicans. Even more curious is, if Trump does run for president again, and if DeSantis defeats him, will the MAGA voters stay on the sidelines out of anger & protest, and allow the democratic nominee to take the presidential election, in much the same way that angry Bernie Sanders supporters stayed on the sidelines in 2020, because they didn't like Hillary Clinton. That would be devastating to the Republican party, if the "Republican base" does not want to come out and support a non-Trump Republican nominee.

Good points. Kevin McCarthy was quoted as realizing his side of the aisle was a bunch of old white men, and that his caucus did not "look like America." Same thing the GOP after Mitt Romney lost - gotta increase the size of the tent.

Unfortunately, others figured out that angry White racists were super reliable voters and decided to use Trump to get them all excited, doubling down on the MAGA message.

Are we going back to the "throw-red-meat-on-the-ballot" strategy? Last decade's partial-birth abortion and defense-of-marriage have given way to anti-shariah, critical race theory, trans kids playing sports, and drag queen story hour.

[dismalist]

Just for starters, this map of the current real time distribution of House seats shows that the US is two countries, the interior and the coasts

How do you account for the counter examples like IL and CO? I still think (for the most part) it is education levels and age that are the big determiners. Both mean (again, for the most part) larger cities have higher concentration of D's.

BTW, thanks to you and lightning for those two posts!

At the State level it does look that way. The factor is population density. Cities are D, rural areas are R. The percentage of a state's population living in a city determines its statewide political leaning.

Yeah, that, too. But all these things are correlated with each other. I'm an income man for an explanation of voting patterns. It is, after all, correlated with everything else. But I'm not gonna do the work to prove it!

I didn't mean the map to be causal, just descriptive, at best suggestive. For population growth and decline, yes, Colorado could be like Italy's San Marino, mountains and all, and Chicago like Venice, water and all! :-)

But in the end all these things are more durable in explanation  than "ideology", "party base", "certain policies", "racism", "Trump", "Biden", and so on, I think.

[Anon1787]

You are attempting to un-define as "conservative" and un-define as "Republican" to dis-include the Trump-MAGA voting block as part of the definitions (the "Republican base, as it was called for four years"). I'm not sure that is a good political strategy for the Republicans. Even more curious is, if Trump does run for president again, and if DeSantis defeats him, will the MAGA voters stay on the sidelines out of anger & protest, and allow the democratic nominee to take the presidential election, in much the same way that angry Bernie Sanders supporters stayed on the sidelines in 2020, because they didn't like Hillary Clinton. That would be devastating to the Republican party, if the "Republican base" does not want to come out and support a non-Trump Republican nominee.

Trumpists and conservatives are two parts of the coalition that make up the GOP like the Biden and Bernie wings of the Democrats that nonetheless remain distinct. I agree that if DeSantis beats Trump but is unable to hold on to the bulk of Trump supporters, then he has a problem. But his win in Florida shows that he was able to broaden his coalition to include a solid majority of independent voters in his state, so the question is whether he can attract enough independent voters (who are the largest voting bloc by identification) on a national scale to offset any loss of disgruntled Trumpists.

[mahagonny]

And how long can the democrats pick up votes by making it patriotic to hate the Supreme Court? That was quite a trick. But then, many hands make light work. As Marco Rubio said, we did pretty well considering everyone's against us.
I think that may have been a one-off though. The Dobbs ruling may have paid its last dividend to the dems. And if they rule against race discrimination in college admissions --- just doesn't have the same legs as a rallying issue.

[Ruralguy]

I don't think the "anti-woke" messaging of he and Youngkin will cut it nationally. Its just not a big enough thing for most people to really matter. An economic message could work, but only if the economy still has some issues.

[mahagonny]

I don't think the "anti-woke" messaging of he and Youngkin will cut it nationally. Its just not a big enough thing for most people to really matter. An economic message could work, but only if the economy still has some issues.

Biden didn't run just now. His party did. He will have an abysmal record to run on if they let him run. If they don't someone else will have to try to sell his abysmal record. Inflation could go back to Trump-era levels today, and we've still lost thousands in retirement savings. The crash-and-burn of social security has been moved to warp speed too, on Biden's watch. Not having lost the senate means he'll keep his nutty agenda going if he can get away with it. DeSantis is running his state well.

[jimbogumbo]

And how long can the democrats pick up votes by making it patriotic to hate the Supreme Court? That was quite a trick.

We saw it before in the 1960s. The Midwest was littered with "Impeach Earl Warren" signs, and backlash to the Civil Rights movement was coupled with it in the R messaging.