Voting Day in the United States

[mahagonny]

And no, Mahagonny is not the kid with the funny accent and/or generic jeans, there are no "cool kids" beating up on him.

Mahagonny is the drunk that hangs out at the end of the bar every night, who comes over and sits down next to you and starts drunkenly spewing and ranting all sorts of grievances, conspiracies, non-sequiturs, and random semi-unpleasant stuff, with occasional intermingled pleasantries. Everyone knows him. Sometimes you just play along in a humorous and self-entertaining way, but most of the time he just makes you want to leave the bar early, because you can't simply ignore him or move to another seat.

How will I ever live this down. OMG.
Uh...try another bar (ignore function?...)

back to topic

Maybe this what stopped the Red Wave:

https://www.vice.com/en/article/v7vjx8/almost-twice-as-many-republicans-died-from-covid-before-the-midterms-than-democrats

And the youth vote.

[jimbogumbo]

Biden's biggest problems will be: (1) to convince Manchin that he's actually a Democrat; (2)  to convince Sinema to stop chasing butterflies and actually figure out what she hope to accomplish in the Senate - other than wobbling back and forth on whose position she supports on any given day.

Both true. But if Warnock wins the runoff at least he'll only have to convince one of the two to get legislation passed.

[secundem_artem]

Maybe this what stopped the Red Wave:

https://www.vice.com/en/article/v7vjx8/almost-twice-as-many-republicans-died-from-covid-before-the-midterms-than-democrats

Comment withdrawn

[dismalist]

Looks like the Republicans got the House. Here is Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/us/republicans-one-seat-away-winning-house-us-midterm-vote-2022-11-16/

The headline laments divided government. I'd bet on gridlock, which I wholeheartedly welcome!

Cheers!

[Sun_Worshiper]

Seems like this is an optimal political outcome for Biden:

Dems won't be able to pass anything that the electorate would see as too far out there, but Biden and Schumer can still stack the judiciary in a way that will make the base happy, while maybe passing some bipartisan legislation here and there. In the meantime, Rs in the house will constantly remind the electorate how crazy they are, taking brief breaks from that to fight with one other. And even if McCarthy is somehow able to keep his colleagues from acting on their own worst impulses (unlikely), Trump will be in full swing.

Biden really couldn't ask for a better set-up for the 2024 election (assuming he plans to run).

[mahagonny]

Optimal political setup for the republicans for 2024, liberals continue thinking their impressions are the the impressions of the electorate.

ETA:

Mahagonny's (roughly speaking) "Trump may be a horrible human being, but his actual policies were pretty middle-of-the-road Republican" isn't an unheard of argument. I think there's some truth to it, although my take (and perhaps history's) is a bit different. This is a pretty even-handed account of Trump's day-to-day in-your-face bigotry coupled with his actual (often indeed pretty racist) policies, with the section "Housing" being particularly informative:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/01/trump-black-americans-policies-433744

Trump was, for four years, a really Useful Idiot. He was useful to McConnell, until he decidedly wasn't, going from Useful to Useless Idiot. And he was useful to Putin, who didn't need to invade anyone to create chaos in the U.S. as long as Trump was President. For a day or two, he was even useful to Schumer and Pelosi as they forged the infrastructure bill. The key was basically say many, many nice things about Trump, and let him believe he came up with the great idea (Dems probably should have tried that more often).

And finally, with regard to banning, leaving, and comparisons to WritingProf, well, WritingProf got a kick out of taking the piss, until he didn't. If that's what's happening with you, Mahagonny, then vaya con Dios.

It must be accurate anaylsis, free of spin. Politico published it. Besides, it says 'fact check' at the top.
But thank you for this. It's interesting. I did better than Wilfred Reilly, I think it was, did when he asked ibram Kendi whether a policy that helps black Americans economically while helping white Americans even more would be racist and unacceptable. And the genius next door replied something like 'let me give that some thought. I'll have an answer for you later on.'

Yes, my point was the policies were not radical. No one got put back in chains and republican policies became more popular among voters of color under Trump than they had been in the recent past. Either that, or they just found him more likable than Mitt Romney or John McCain...?

CNN:   https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/05/politics/obama-race-relations-poll/index.html

[Sun_Worshiper]

Optimal political setup for the republicans for 2024, liberals continue thinking their impressions are the the impressions of the electorate.

Sure, that worked out great for Rs over the last week

[dismalist]

Biden really couldn't ask for a better set-up for the 2024 election (assuming he plans to run).

Yes, it's a Democratic Party victory in disguise.

Damn good disguise, as Churchill said when his wife suggested the 1945 Conservative election loss might be a victory in disguise.

[Ruralguy]

Though he'd have to worry about sounding a bit too much like Warren and some others, he's in decent shape, all things considered. Think of how much worse of a position he'd be in if (a) the Republicans really had a wave and (b) inflation numbers from last week had shown increases instead of decreases. Obviously things could have been better, and the "Dems look good and Trump et al look bad" line is definitely spin that won't necessarily be as obvious when the next Congress gets going.

[Sun_Worshiper]

Biden really couldn't ask for a better set-up for the 2024 election (assuming he plans to run).

Yes, it's a Democratic Party victory in disguise.

Damn good disguise, as Churchill said when his wife suggested the 1945 Conservative election loss might be a victory in disguise.

Not really in disguise. Dems picked up governorships, state majorites, and maybe a senate seat.

[Wahoo Redux]

By all rights, there should have been a red wave.  Inflation is soaring.  The price of gas is soaring.  Both financial crises feed into each other.  Wages cannot keep up.  None of this is directly Biden's fault, but he has not been terribly proactive or he has been slow to act.  People usually take out their frustrations on the incumbent party at midterms.   But this is not what happened.  Somehow the NY Dems blew it big time, otherwise this would have been a pretty good blue sweep.

[nebo113]

By all rights, there should have been a red wave.  Inflation is soaring.  The price of gas is soaring.  Both financial crises feed into each other.  Wages cannot keep up.  None of this is directly Biden's fault, but he has not been terribly proactive or he has been slow to act.  People usually take out their frustrations on the incumbent party at midterms.   But this is not what happened.  Somehow the NY Dems blew it big time, otherwise this would have been a pretty good blue sweep.

Just saw gas for $2.99/gal.

[secundem_artem]

By all rights, there should have been a red wave.  Inflation is soaring.  The price of gas is soaring.  Both financial crises feed into each other.  Wages cannot keep up.  None of this is directly Biden's fault, but he has not been terribly proactive or he has been slow to act.  People usually take out their frustrations on the incumbent party at midterms.   But this is not what happened.  Somehow the NY Dems blew it big time, otherwise this would have been a pretty good blue sweep.

Just saw gas for $2.99/gal.

As long as Americans insist on driving enormous environmental crime scenes that get 8 miles per gallon, I have ZERO sympathy for those who howl about the price of gas.  My parents brought up 3 kids in the back seat of something the size of a Chevy Malibu.  Ain't no reason on earth why families with 2 kids need a Suburban and similar sized vehicles.

[dismalist]

I wasn't going to mention it because Clean told me to shut up on his "What's the price of gas in your neighborhood" thread, but now Nebo brought it up on this thread, saying:

Just saw gas for $2.99/gal.

Adjusted for overall inflation, the price of gas in the current Ukrainian war episode never reached prices seen in the late 'seventies, in 2008/09, or 2010/15.

Perhaps the voters are wiser than the media.

Edit: A date.

[jimbogumbo]

Looks like the Republicans got the House. Here is Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/us/republicans-one-seat-away-winning-house-us-midterm-vote-2022-11-16/

The headline laments divided government. I'd bet on gridlock, which I wholeheartedly welcome!

Cheers!

A dissenting economic-based opinion:https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/17/opinions/midterm-elections-us-economy-zandi/index.html