NYTimes: Effects of Ending Affirmative Action

[Wahoo Redux]

NY Times: If Affirmative Action Ends, College Admissions May Be Changed Forever

Those rollbacks could then help spur colleges to end other admissions practices that critics say have historically benefited the well-heeled. Some schools have already ended their standardized test requirements and preferences for children of alumni. There is also pressure to end early decision, which admits applicants before the general deadline.

If the court rules as expected, the class admitted for the fall of 2024 will look quite different, education officials said.

"We will see a decline in students of color attending college before we see an increase again," said Angel B. Pérez, the chief executive of the National Association for College Admission Counseling. "We will be missing an entire generation."

*****

If the court rules as expected, the class admitted for the fall of 2024 will look quite different, education officials said.

"We will see a decline in students of color attending college before we see an increase again," said Angel B. Pérez, the chief executive of the National Association for College Admission Counseling. "We will be missing an entire generation."

*****

"The probability of Black applicants receiving offers of admission would drop to half that of white students, and the percentage of Black students matriculating would drop from roughly 7.1 percent of the student body to 2.1 percent," the brief said, predicting a return to "1960s levels."

[apl68]

So, if there is no affirmative action, no legacy admissions, and no requirements involving standardized test scores, how will selective universities select students in a way that seems fair, recognizes achievement/potential, and creates a diverse student body?  Honest question.  I'm sure there are assorted proposals out there for how to do it.  I confess not knowing what they might be.

[marshwiggle]

So, if there is no affirmative action, no legacy admissions, and no requirements involving standardized test scores, how will selective universities select students in a way that seems fair, recognizes achievement/potential, and creates a diverse student body?  Honest question.  I'm sure there are assorted proposals out there for how to do it.  I confess not knowing what they might be.

It's not the "selective" institutions that will suffer; they can skim off the cream of the diverse crop. It will be the lower tier places that will be out of luck.

[dismalist]

So, if there is no affirmative action, no legacy admissions, and no requirements involving standardized test scores, how will selective universities select students in a way that seems fair, recognizes achievement/potential, and creates a diverse student body?  Honest question.  I'm sure there are assorted proposals out there for how to do it.  I confess not knowing what they might be.

It's not the "selective" institutions that will suffer; they can skim off the cream of the diverse crop. It will be the lower tier places that will be out of luck.

Actually, the opposite, Marsh. It is only in the highly selective institution that AA matters. PoC who would be admitted only with AA will be admitted to and attend lower tier colleges and actually do better there [mismatch theory]. Has already happened in California, which abolished AA by plebiscite.

My own opinion is that private colleges should be allowed to do whatever they want, but there is an undeniable tension between AA and legalized racial discrimination.

Alternatively, selective colleges can hide their AA so long as there are no legal quotas.

ETA California.

[mythbuster]

Even if it's banned, I think admissions at selective schools will still try to have a diverse entering classes.
My first guess is that there will be a new emphasis at nationally selective schools on "geographic diversity". Admissions at these places has the demographic info on every HS in the country, so this can be an easy proxy for racial/ ethnic diversity.  Depending on how much they want to push, you also might see admissions essay prompts change to more overtly ask about family traditions etc. But that might be skirting too close to the edge of what's designated as illegal.

My question is- will it still be legal to have the quota of oboe players/ female rugby players/ Irish clog dancers? Can selective schools admit on the basis of anything other than academic achievement? Because if not, then we should just run a blind lottery for the Ivy League etc.

[dismalist]

Can selective schools admit on the basis of anything other than academic achievement?

If AA goes, schools will be able to select on anything except race.

[marshwiggle]

So, if there is no affirmative action, no legacy admissions, and no requirements involving standardized test scores, how will selective universities select students in a way that seems fair, recognizes achievement/potential, and creates a diverse student body?  Honest question.  I'm sure there are assorted proposals out there for how to do it.  I confess not knowing what they might be.

It's not the "selective" institutions that will suffer; they can skim off the cream of the diverse crop. It will be the lower tier places that will be out of luck.

Actually, the opposite, Marsh. It is only in the highly selective institution that AA matters. PoC who would be admitted only with AA will be admitted to and attend lower tier colleges and actually do better there [mismatch theory]. Has already happened in California, which abolished AA by plebiscite.

Interesting.

The way that schools can still intentionally diversify is targeted advertising. Research has shown that above a certain average, raising the cutoff has no effect on attrition. (If all of the incoming students have an average of 90% or more, it's not going to be academics that makes any of them drop out or leave.) So, schools could have a lottery of applicants above the cutoff. Then, if they do targeted advertising to get whatever percentage of "diverse" students they want in the qualified applicant pool, then the proportion getting selected by the lottery should be the same. One added bonus of this is that, by definition, all of the students in the pool are statistically equally likely to succeed, so the attrition rate of "diverse" students shouldn't be different from "non-diverse" students.

Schools with a big enough budget to carpet-bomb ads to diverse communities should be able to do this.

[dismalist]

What makes you think selective schools care about PoC's chance of graduating, Marsh?

Look, e.g. MIT takes the best and only the best. Math SAT scores of PoC at MIT are in the top 10% nationally. For white students at MIT it's the top 1%. Most PoC haven't got the ghost of a chance if quality is maintained. One can do all the targeted advertising one wants, and the odds of success will not change. There's a tradeoff between diversity and graduation rate, given quality.

I think AA is good for at best a small number of PoC, and positively bad for others.

Nevertheless, if colleges wish to discriminate by race, they will find ways even if AA were to be stopped.

[secundem_artem]

It's all a tempest in a teapot.  At 90% of the colleges and universities in this country, a high school C average and the ability to complete an application form are all it takes to be admitted.  Nobody is suing because they were discriminated against in their application to the University of Southern North Dakota at Hoople.