2024 Elections Thread

[Sun_Worshiper]

Maybe I'm crazy, but I'm seeing a world where this all works out well for Biden:

First, he manages to keep a lid on the uprising from Congressional democrats and stay in the race. Once it is clear that he is the only thing standing in the way of Trump 2.0, surrogates start campaigning much more aggressively in his favor.

Next, he hits the campaign trail in a much more vigorous way. He is consistently out in front of cheering crowds, with teleprompters, in swing states. Maybe does a town hall. The adrenaline and careful management from his staff keep senior moments to a minimum. He remains shielded from any tough interviews or venues. The news continue to publish damning accounts of his decline with quotes from anonymous insiders, but the public mostly does not notice or care.

In the meantime, the surge of positivity about Harris during her brief flirtation with being at the top of the ticket gives her a popularity bump with base voters and media influencers. She becomes a more effective surrogate for Biden.

Amid all the intrigue over Biden, Trump's VP pick and the Republican convention are met with a shrug by the news media. Renewed attention goes to Trump's authoritarian plans and idiotic ways.

By the time we get to the Democratic convention, the polls are even and Biden becomes the narrow favorite given incumbency and a strong economy.

[histchick]

Or they like the things he says, the "shit hole" countries and "bad hombres" comments, his insistence that the "liberals" are after their "way of life," and Trump's threats of violence.  These resonate with a lot of people who think this same way.

I'm inclined to believe this. My father has been expressing some strongly-held opinions that I never knew he had (this weekend he was on a "DEI hires" kick).

[Ruralguy]

Although the SW scenario is possible and maybe even probable, I dont think it quite leads to Biden being a favorite. It would likely just restore things to slightly worse than even.

However, I dont think the media will shrug over the VP choice. They never do, even if the choice is bland.

In addition, Biden is likely to feed us a few gaffes, and something will keep the culture wars gnoing. Also, I dont think people like Harris enough for any Harris bump, even if it hsppens, to matter in an important state (though msybe makes places like NY as safe as tbeyve been for decades?) .

So, yes, Biden can straighten the ship, but it will be tough to win.

I think an economic or foreign policy home run, expecially economic,
can really help, and in all honesty is probably needed in addition to
the SW scenario elements already discussed.

[Langue_doc]

Live Election Updates: Pelosi Hints That Biden Should Reconsider Re-Election Run
Representative Nancy Pelosi, the former House speaker and a longtime ally, suggested President Biden should continue to weigh the matter, after he made it clear this week that he's committed to staying in the race.

The first few paragraphs:

Pelosi is the most senior Democrat to suggest he consider dropping out. Here's the latest.
Representative Nancy Pelosi of California, the former House speaker and a longtime Biden ally, made the strongest public push yet for the president to reconsider his re-election bid, suggesting on Wednesday that "time is running short" for him to make a decision.

Speaking on MSNBC's "Morning Joe," Ms. Pelosi, 84, said that she would back Mr. Biden "whatever he decides." But she said she wanted to restart conversations about Mr. Biden's political future after the NATO summit he is hosting this week in Washington, which on Thursday will include the president's first news conference since his disastrous debate performance against former President Donald J. Trump.

Mr. Biden, 81, has been unequivocal about his intention to seek a second term, but Democrats on Capitol Hill have agonized over his candidacy.

Ms. Pelosi's comments appeared designed to give alarmed Democrats, who so far are mostly falling in line behind Mr. Biden, space to pivot in the coming days. It was the first glimmer of pushback against the defiant president from a top congressional leader that gave a sense of the deep divisions within the party on how to move forward.

[jimbogumbo]

https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/4763815-george-clooney-biden-drop-out-new-york-times/

[spork]

https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/4763815-george-clooney-biden-drop-out-new-york-times/

Hollywood has spoken.

A podcast on how the two-party system strangles political competition.

[jimbogumbo]

Another article on CNN says a large donor event scheduled for Chicago during the convention has been cancelled.

[jimbogumbo]

I will vote this year (again) against a candidate and party, so whomever the D's run will get my vote. This analysis suggests the current kerfuffle is significantly overblown: https://news.northeastern.edu/2024/07/09/biden-debate-performance-voter-preferences/

[dismalist]

https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/4763815-george-clooney-biden-drop-out-new-york-times/

Hollywood has spoken.

A podcast on how the two-party system strangles political competition.

Thank God it strangles political competition! Does anybody crave the miracles of proportional representation in  Italian and German history? The question is acute when the electorate is divided, as some believe it is in the US today.

Put more benignly, two parties means each has a chance to fuck it up. Then one votes to change. In coalition politics, there are usually one or two little sneakers parties that sell themselves to form a majority. They are always in government. You can't vote against such a government! Great one may say, if one likes them. Not so great if one doesn't. They also tend to be chameleon-like over time.

[Langue_doc]

The Embattled Biden Campaign Tests Kamala Harris's Strength vs. Trump
The campaign is quietly carrying out a head-to-head survey of voters between the vice president and Donald Trump, in a sign of the uncertainty even atop the Democratic Party.

The first few paragraphs:

Under siege from fellow Democrats, President Biden's campaign is quietly testing the strength of Vice President Kamala Harris against former President Donald J. Trump in a head-to-head survey of voters, as Mr. Biden fights for his political future with a high-stakes news conference on Thursday.

The survey, which is being conducted this week and was commissioned by the Biden campaign's analytics team, is believed to be the first time since the debate that Mr. Biden's aides have sought to measure how the vice president would fare at the top of the ticket. It was described by three people who are informed about it and insisted on anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the information. They did not specify why the survey was being conducted or what the campaign planned to do with the results.

The effort, which comes as a growing number of prominent lawmakers call for Mr. Biden to step aside or suggest he should reconsider his plans to run, indicates that his campaign may be preparing to wade into a debate that has consumed the Democratic Party behind closed doors: whether Mr. Biden should step aside for his vice president.

While some of Mr. Biden's top aides have quietly argued that Ms. Harris could not win the election, donors and other outside supporters of the vice president believe she might be in a stronger position after the debate, and could be a more energetic communicator of the party's message.

In memo to campaign staff on Thursday, Mr. Biden's campaign chair, Jennifer O'Malley Dillon, and his campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, wrote about the "path ahead."

"In addition to what we believe is a clear pathway ahead for us, there is also no indication that anyone else would outperform the president vs. Trump," they wrote. "Hypothetical polling of alternative nominees will always be unreliable, and surveys do not take into account the negative media environment that any Democratic nominee will encounter. The only Democratic candidate for whom this is already baked in is President Biden."

The memo also appeared to acknowledge an erosion of Mr. Biden's support.

"The movement we have seen, while real, is not a sea-change in the state of the race," the memo says.

As the White House and the Biden campaign try to project a unified front, some of their supporters are engaged in a tough assessment of who should top the ticket.

Mr. Biden's political future will be determined in part by his performance during Thursday's news conference at the NATO summit in Washington at 6:30 p.m., which party lawmakers, officials and donors have said they will closely monitor. It will be his longest unscripted appearance since the faltering debate performance two weeks ago.

[Langue_doc]

Apologies for the double post, but here's the George Clooney guest essay:

George Clooney: I Love Joe Biden. But We Need a New Nominee.

One of the paragraphs:

It is disingenuous, at best, to argue that Democrats have already spoken with their vote and therefore the nomination is settled and done, when we just received new and upsetting information. We all think Republicans should abandon their nominee now that he's been convicted of 34 felonies. That's new and upsetting information as well. Top Democrats — Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi — and senators, representatives and other candidates who face losing in November need to ask this president to voluntarily step aside.

The BBC article sums it all up:

Top Democratic fundraiser Clooney calls on Biden to drop out

Two years ago,

Jill Biden sorry for comparing Latinos to tacos

[spork]

[...]

Put more benignly, two parties means each has a chance to fuck it up. Then one votes to change.

[...]

In theory. But as the podcast points out, only 5-10% of districts are actually competitive, and the primary system selects for extremists in a process similar to ethnic outbidding: https://saideman.blogspot.com/2015/12/why-do-we-care-about-ethnic-outbidding.html.

I.e., the median voter theorem works well in theory.
 

[dismalist]

[...]

Put more benignly, two parties means each has a chance to fuck it up. Then one votes to change.

[...]

In theory. But as the podcast points out, only 5-10% of districts are actually competitive, and the primary system selects for extremists in a process similar to ethnic outbidding: https://saideman.blogspot.com/2015/12/why-do-we-care-about-ethnic-outbidding.html.

I.e., the median voter theorem works well in theory.
 

I was raging against proportional representation, not first-past-the post, which gives us two parties, and certainly not for the primary system. We used to have first-past-the-post with a few primaries, but no primary system. In proportional rep the nutjobs will have their own parties and they will be included in coalitions.

[Yes, the median voter theorem must be used cautiously, for it only applies to one issue at a time and real-world parties make bundles of issues. Also, single-peaked preferences only, but never mind.]

Only a few districts up-in-the air isn't really a problem. The median voter surrogate has to live somewhere! :-)

[jimbogumbo]

Only a few districts up-in-the air isn't really a problem. The median voter surrogate has to live somewhere! :-)

For primaries I really don't care how many are up in the air. What I hate is the top vote getter extremism we have currently for the House. As an example, Boebert jumped to Ken Buck's old district and won with a relatively small percentage of the vote against a slew of candidates. Rank choice voting there could well have resulted in a more appropriate representative for that district. Their the median voter wasn't represented in the final selection.

[dismalist]

Only a few districts up-in-the air isn't really a problem. The median voter surrogate has to live somewhere! :-)

For primaries I really don't care how many are up in the air. What I hate is the top vote getter extremism we have currently for the House. As an example, Boebert jumped to Ken Buck's old district and won with a relatively small percentage of the vote against a slew of candidates. Rank choice voting there could well have resulted in a more appropriate representative for that district. Their the median voter wasn't represented in the final selection.

I agree that rank choice is better than first-past-the post in capturing the median voter's preferences in a fragmented society.

Be that as it may, the primary system, not the occasional primary, has got to go.