2024 Elections Thread

[cathwen]

Finally, after all the Biden-bashing, an article about Trump in The NY Times: Donald Trump is Unfit to Lead

[secundem_artem]

This whole thing has me feeling like I want to be on the last chopper out of Saigon.  No matter who wins this thing, it ends up a mess.  If Trump wins, the mess is self evident.  If Scranton Joe can pull it off, actuarially, we're going to see President Kamala Harris at some point.  Joe has already exceeded the standard US life expectancy.

Dear gawd - could the D's PLEASE give us an open convention.  Trump is a weak candidate.  Any sane D under the age of 80 would be a shoo in for the job.

[spork]

This whole thing has me feeling like I want to be on the last chopper out of Saigon.

I have friends who resemble that remark!

[...]

Dear gawd - could the D's PLEASE give us an open convention.  Trump is a weak candidate.  Any sane D under the age of 80 would be a shoo in for the job.

I wish someone like President Putin, er, I mean Zelenskyy, was in the race.

[Sun_Worshiper]

Biden is doing a good job at this press conference - at least in terms of substance. It will probably keep him in the game for now.

[ciao_yall]

Only a few districts up-in-the air isn't really a problem. The median voter surrogate has to live somewhere! :-)

For primaries I really don't care how many are up in the air. What I hate is the top vote getter extremism we have currently for the House. As an example, Boebert jumped to Ken Buck's old district and won with a relatively small percentage of the vote against a slew of candidates. Rank choice voting there could well have resulted in a more appropriate representative for that district. Their the median voter wasn't represented in the final selection.

I agree that rank choice is better than first-past-the post in capturing the median voter's preferences in a fragmented society.

Be that as it may, the primary system, not the occasional primary, has got to go.

I do like the system like in the UK where the PM is chosen by Parliament. So if a 3rd ( or more ) party gets enough votes they can have a true impact.

We have Ranked Choice in SF. Works well. Candidates often develop a vote sharing strategy with like-minded candidates encouraging voters to vote for them first, X second (or vice versa) so they don't split the vote.

[spork]

Interesting perspective from some Michiganders:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/12/opinion/biden-michigan-voters-election.html?unlocked_article_code=1.6k0.FVEY.07dX_73qrLMR&smid=url-share.

Single-issue voters do exist. I don't think it's a good utility maximization strategy, but eh, what do I know?

[Langue_doc]

Live Election Updates: Donors Said to Freeze Roughly $90 Million as Long as Biden Stays in Race
It's one of the most concrete examples yet of the fallout from President Biden's poor debate performance. His rival, Donald J. Trump, said he might announce a running mate during the Republican convention next week.

Some major Democratic donors have told the largest pro-Biden super PAC, Future Forward, that roughly $90 million in pledged donations is now on hold if President Biden remains atop the ticket, according to two people who have been briefed on the conversations.

The frozen contributions come as he had hoped to turn the page on a weekslong crisis within his party following a nearly hourlong news conference on Thursday evening. That appearance — in which he delivered a few gaffes but also demonstrated a command of foreign policy — did not immediately seem to worsen Democrats' fears about his viability, but it also did not silence the calls for him to drop out. After he was done speaking, three more House members joined the ranks of elected Democrats calling for Mr. Biden to end his campaign.

The Sunrise Movement, the youth-led climate organization that helped elect President Biden, is now calling on him to quit the race for the White House.

The group's leaders say they believe that Mr. Biden, who has overseen the most aggressive climate agenda of any president, cannot win against former President Donald J. Trump, who has dismissed global warming as a hoax.

"Joe Biden's next climate legacy-defining act must be to pass the torch to a new nominee," Aru Shiney-Ajay, the executive director of the Sunrise Movement, said in a statement.

"Another Trump presidency would cause catastrophic and irreversible damage to our climate," she said. "After speaking with young people around the country over the last few weeks, I'm concerned that Joe Biden isn't positioned to mobilize young people and win in November."

[Langue_doc]

Apologies for the double post, but more from the NYT.

Democrats Fear Safe Blue States Turning Purple as Biden Stays the Course
Lingering worries about President Biden's age could make Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia competitive, party operatives believe.

The first few paragraphs:

As President Biden insists he will stay in the presidential race, Democrats are growing increasingly alarmed that his presence on the ticket is transforming the political map, turning light-blue states into contested battlegrounds.

Down-ballot Democrats, local elected officials and party strategists say Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia — all of which Mr. Biden won comfortably in 2020 — could be in play in November after his miserable debate performance last month.

Some polls in these states suggest a tightening race between Mr. Biden and former President Donald J. Trump, with one showing a virtual tie in Virginia, which has not voted for a Republican for president since 2004, and another showing Mr. Trump squeaking ahead in New Hampshire, which has been in the Democratic column since 2000.

On Tuesday, the Cook Political Report, a prominent elections forecaster, downgraded New Hampshire and Minnesota from "likely" wins for Mr. Biden to only leaning in his direction. And in a meeting at the White House last week, Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico told Mr. Biden that she feared he would lose her state, according to two people briefed on her comments.

The shakiness in the fringe battleground states is an alarming sign for Mr. Biden's hopes in must-win contests that were already expected to be close, such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. An expanding battleground map could force his campaign to divert resources away from the traditional swing states, where he has been falling further and further behind.

Biden's News Conference Answered Many Questions. But Not the Big One.
For once, a presidential Q. and A. was must-see TV. But it didn't put an end to the summer's biggest drama.

Some paragraphs from the article:

The telecast had the daredevil feel of a live walk through a minefield. The first false step came before the news conference proper, at remarks after the afternoon's NATO meeting, when Mr. Biden introduced President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine: "Ladies and gentlemen, President Putin."

The president caught himself and recovered. "I'm better," Mr. Zelensky joked; "You're a hell of a lot better," Mr. Biden said. The audience laughed. Anybody can mix up a name once.

Mr. Biden did it twice. Answering his first question of the evening, about whether he believed Vice President Kamala Harris would make a good presidential candidate, he said he "wouldn't have picked Vice President Trump to be vice president" if he didn't. This time he didn't catch himself.

[Parasaurolophus]

Biden's reference to "elites" is telling--he means donors, and the donors are shaken. They're his "base," so if he loses them he's toast. (Nobody else is a Biden tankie, unlike the BernieBros, KHive, etc.) There isn't a solid 30% out there who'll back him no matter what, unlike Trump. It's just the donors.

[spork]

Robert Reich on the signs of Trump's dementia:

https://www.peoplesworld.org/article/why-isnt-the-media-reporting-on-trumps-growing-dementia/.

Edited to add:

Trump goes speed dating (NSFW)

[ciao_yall]

Biden's reference to "elites" is telling--he means donors, and the donors are shaken. They're his "base," so if he loses them he's toast. (Nobody else is a Biden tankie, unlike the BernieBros, KHive, etc.) There isn't a solid 30% out there who'll back him no matter what, unlike Trump. It's just the donors.

What percentage of R voters are voting the party, not the candidate?

I ask because there are voters who would vote D no matter what. Like myself.

[Sun_Worshiper]

Biden's reference to "elites" is telling--he means donors, and the donors are shaken. They're his "base," so if he loses them he's toast. (Nobody else is a Biden tankie, unlike the BernieBros, KHive, etc.) There isn't a solid 30% out there who'll back him no matter what, unlike Trump. It's just the donors.

What percentage of R voters are voting the party, not the candidate?

I ask because there are voters who would vote D no matter what. Like myself.

Fear of Trump will make it a close race. Even if Biden is in a coma he'll get 45 percent of the vote or more.

[ciao_yall]

Biden's reference to "elites" is telling--he means donors, and the donors are shaken. They're his "base," so if he loses them he's toast. (Nobody else is a Biden tankie, unlike the BernieBros, KHive, etc.) There isn't a solid 30% out there who'll back him no matter what, unlike Trump. It's just the donors.

What percentage of R voters are voting the party, not the candidate?

I ask because there are voters who would vote D no matter what. Like myself.

Fear of Trump will make it a close race. Even if Biden is in a coma he'll get 45 percent of the vote or more.

Hope that is true for more than 50% as well as the swing states.

[Parasaurolophus]

Biden's reference to "elites" is telling--he means donors, and the donors are shaken. They're his "base," so if he loses them he's toast. (Nobody else is a Biden tankie, unlike the BernieBros, KHive, etc.) There isn't a solid 30% out there who'll back him no matter what, unlike Trump. It's just the donors.

What percentage of R voters are voting the party, not the candidate?

I ask because there are voters who would vote D no matter what. Like myself.

That's the thing: those are voters any Democratic candidate will get. The question is what Biden brings to the table (or, indeed, who he scares away from it). Until now, it's been donors. If they desert him, then there doesn't seem to be very much left for him to contribute.

And it does look shaky on the donor front right now. I had thought he would manage to stay put and ride it out (not that I think that's the right thing, mind you), but after the grumbling from the last couple days I'm not so sure any more.

[Sun_Worshiper]

Biden's reference to "elites" is telling--he means donors, and the donors are shaken. They're his "base," so if he loses them he's toast. (Nobody else is a Biden tankie, unlike the BernieBros, KHive, etc.) There isn't a solid 30% out there who'll back him no matter what, unlike Trump. It's just the donors.

What percentage of R voters are voting the party, not the candidate?

I ask because there are voters who would vote D no matter what. Like myself.

That's the thing: those are voters any Democratic candidate will get. The question is what Biden brings to the table (or, indeed, who he scares away from it). Until now, it's been donors. If they desert him, then there doesn't seem to be very much left for him to contribute.

And it does look shaky on the donor front right now. I had thought he would manage to stay put and ride it out (not that I think that's the right thing, mind you), but after the grumbling from the last couple days I'm not so sure any more.

Biden brings more than donors. He brought together the right combination of voters in 2020: Suburban women and union workers in blue wall states, independents in Arizona. It is unclear that Harris, or any other Democrat, can put together a coalition like that in time for the election. Biden may not be able to do it again either, but it is not a reach to say he has a better shot than anyone else at this point.

And Biden has a point about elites. It isn't just donors, but pundits, Democratic congresspeople, and others who are declaring that he can't win, even though the data does not really indicate that voters have turned on him since the debate.

I say all this as someone who wishes he would step aside.