2024 Elections Thread

[Ruralguy]

 I guess you could analyze this to death. You could say Shapiro would have been victim of the anti-Israel crowd, or that Kelly would have been taken down by his past involvement with multi level marketing (that seemed tenuous), or more likely with him, it was worry that they'd lose an important senate seat. Homophobia would have felled Mayor Pete.
In the end, as has been said, I guess it probably came down to doing no harm, appealing to the base, and probably rapport.

By the way, yes, less than 1% might be swayed by the VP choice, but several elections have hinged on those sorts of margins, so it could matter.  Of course if you *lose* some other state because of that choice or just cause huge image problems (protests at convention), then any small gains would be raised. But it is true that no VP choice has mattered in this regard since 1960. And arguably, between 1960 and 2000 there were really no contentious elections in this regard (maybe 1976?). 

[jimbogumbo]

I'll just add that in terms of Republican messaging the pick didn't matter. If it was Shapiro, it would be because he's Jewish and they are playing identity politics, and if not, it's because they're anti-Semitic.

[Langue_doc]

5 Key Reasons That Kamala Harris Picked Tim Walz
The vice president is said to have liked Mr. Walz's policies, his Midwestern appeal, and the likelihood that he would be a loyal running mate and governing partner.

The article in its entirety:

As Vice President Kamala Harris was landing on her choice of a vice-presidential candidate, a few things about Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota brought him to the front of the pack.

Here are five key reasons he was chosen:

His plucky dad vibes
Mr. Walz, a balding 60-year-old former high school football coach with a thick Midwestern accent, has become a liberal favorite on social media precisely for his off-the-charts levels of uncoolness.

During the vetting period, a year-old video he had filmed with his daughter, Hope, while they visited the Minnesota State Fair went viral. It showed Mr. Walz screaming on a ride called the Slingshot and cheerfully admonishing his daughter for her lack of interest in eating corn dogs.

"I'm vegetarian," his daughter said.

"Turkey, then," the camouflage-hat-wearing Mr. Walz said.

In other resurfaced videos, he seems to enjoy doting on the family cat, Honey. Denizens of the internet, a place that is popular with cat lovers, have responded with fulsome support.

A person close to the selection process said that Mr. Walz's previous career as a high school teacher and football coach also appealed to Ms. Harris, who has gained the support of the nation's teachers unions.

The American Federation of Teachers, a powerful broker in Democratic politics, last month became the first labor union to endorse Ms. Harris. And the National Education Association, the largest labor union in the country, announced its support for the Democratic ticket on Tuesday after Mr. Walz's selection was revealed.

His populist policies
As governor, Mr. Walz championed a host of liberal policies in Minnesota that are popular with Democratic and independent-leaning voters.

Ms. Harris and her team believed that these measures, including a statewide child tax credit and a paid-leave program, focused on helping lower- and middle-income Americans. A Harris administration would try to enact legislation like this on a national scale, according to two people directly familiar with the vice president's decision-making. In 2023, Mr. Walz signed into a law a bill that gave schoolchildren access to free meals, making Minnesota the fourth state in the nation to provide free meals.

Beyond economics, Mr. Walz also signed a bill in 2023 that codified the protections of Roe v. Wade, which had guaranteed a constitutional right to abortion, into law in his state. Abortion rights has been a cornerstone of Ms. Harris's advocacy work as vice president.

Mr. Walz also has a personal story about in vitro fertilization, which has been targeted by conservative groups who say frozen embryos could be considered "extrauterine children." To conceive his daughter, Mr. Walz and his wife, Gwen, had gone through treatments for the procedure that stretched over seven years.

Of course, the selection of Mr. Walz as running mate does not guarantee that any of his work at the state level could be replicated nationally should Ms. Harris win election in November.

President Biden has called for an expanded child tax credit. He has tried to add a paid-leave initiative to a far-reaching social spending bill. And he has all but begged voters to elect more Democratic lawmakers who could help him get the congressional majority needed to get the protections once afforded by Roe passed into law.

None of that has happened yet, and it would remain an uphill battle should Ms. Harris become president. But Mr. Walz was a House member for over a decade before he was elected governor, and he has the support of several House Democrats — a conduit that would be useful to Ms. Harris, who was in the Senate for only three and a half years, if she wins the election.

On foreign policy, Mr. Walz has not spoken extensively about the war in Gaza, one of the thorniest issues facing the Biden administration. On immigration, Mr. Walz has said he supports a pathway to citizenship for people brought to the United States as children, which is in line with the current administration's policies.

His potential to speak to rural voters
Raised in rural Nebraska, Mr. Walz is the son of a homemaker and a public school administrator. He enlisted in the Army National Guard at the age of 17.

A post from Ms. Harris on Instagram ticked off more facts about his past: "His father died of cancer when he was 19, and his family relied on Social Security survivor benefit checks to make ends meet. At 17, he enlisted in the National Guard, serving for 24 years. He used his GI Bill benefits to go to college, and become a teacher."

If that sounds like a checklist of biographical items that could appeal to Midwestern voters, that is exactly the thinking of Ms. Harris and her advisers, who believe that she needs someone with political pull in Midwestern states — including Michigan and Wisconsin — that are considered must-wins for her.

Mr. Walz's potential appeal to Midwesterners — and to Ms. Harris — goes beyond his stylistic approach. He is a hunter who has spoken of his gun ownership and past "A" rating from the National Rifle Association. In 2016, Guns & Ammo magazine included him on its list of top 20 politicians for gun owners. But after a teenage gunman killed 17 people at a Florida high school in February 2018, Mr. Walz spoke out in favor of an assault weapons ban.

In 2023, he signed into law a bill that would require people buying firearms to undergo background checks and allowed law enforcement officials the ability to intervene if a person owning a firearm posed a risk to themselves or others.

His contrast with Trump's running mate, JD Vance
Ms. Harris and her advisers believe Mr. Walz will match up well on a debate stage against Senator JD Vance of Ohio, former President Donald J. Trump's vice-presidential candidate and a fellow Midwesterner.

As they watched Mr. Walz closely during a breakneck vetting period, Ms. Harris and her team liked his straight-talking style, including when he called Mr. Trump and some other Republicans "weird."

After Mr. Trump chose him, Mr. Vance, 40, had an awkward rollout, notably by doubling down on his years-old assertion that some childless people, as he put it, had no "direct stake" in the country's future. This ended up being a gift to Mr. Walz, who hit the cable news circuit armed with a response that made the Harris team take notice.

"You know there's something wrong with people when they talk about freedom: freedom to be in your bedroom, freedom to be in your exam room, freedom to tell your kids what they can read. That stuff is weird," Mr. Walz said during an MSNBC appearance on July 25.

Mr. Vance likes to drink Diet Mountain Dew, a soda he has tried to adopt as an unofficial refreshment of the Republican ticket. But Mr. Walz is a fan of the green-hued drink, too.

In the end, it came down to winning — and chemistry
Several people close to the decision-making process said that Ms. Harris held in-person interviews at the vice president's residence with several hopefuls, including Mr. Walz, Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona. In the end, they said, Ms. Harris simply connected the best with Mr. Walz.

Over and over again during the selection process, loyalty was emphasized as one of the most important criteria for Ms. Harris, who did not have a close and trust-driven bond with Mr. Biden, at least not immediately.

Her selection suggests that she trusts Mr. Walz not only to help her win but also to help her govern.

[dismalist]

Look at the symmetry: Both parties pick VP candidates that do nothing to broaden their electorate, but that are intended to bring out the base. Both are appealing to the rationally ignorant voter.

My personal concern with Walz is that he is a former High School teacher. Probably thinks life is like High School.

[Diogenes]

My personal concern with Walz is that he is a former High School teacher. Probably thinks life is like High School.

State House 2006-18, Governor 2019-2024. I used to work at a dog kennel years ago. I do not in fact, think my college classrooms are full of dogs though.

[clean]

I dont know.... Tommy Tuberville was a College Football Coach.  He is an idiot!  The people of Alabama deserve him.  Roll Tide! 

[ciao_yall]

The real worry with Shapiro as a pick would be Michigan. Dearborn would have dems sitting out en masse, and that would have been bad. Still might be, but less likely now.

Shapiro would have dragged the conversation to the Middle East, where there is no winning answer.

[Ruralguy]

Its really just an assumption that Shapiro would have dragged the convo to the Middle East. Sure, it would have been brought up, but I think his own performance could have  likely counter acted it. Yet the Middle East has a way of being the gift that keeps on giving and screwing over generations of politicians. Its a tricky and scary region, and nobody want to worry about that being brought up more than it has to be, including Harris. So I could see her being a bit frightened into such assumptions and conclusions regarding Governor Shapiro.

[ciao_yall]

Its really just an assumption that Shapiro would have dragged the convo to the Middle East. Sure, it would have been brought up, but I think his own performance could have  likely counter acted it. Yet the Middle East has a way of being the gift that keeps on giving and screwing over generations of politicians. Its a tricky and scary region, and nobody want to worry about that being brought up more than it has to be, including Harris. So I could see her being a bit frightened into such assumptions and conclusions regarding Governor Shapiro.

It's not an assumption. He has already spoken up in favor of Israel and against Gaza supporters.

[Ruralguy]

Yes, of course I know he has spoken on the subject. Its an assumption that it would have been a distraction.
Will Harris be  distracted by race because she is black and has spoken on racial issues?


Nonetheless, the pick is the pick, and it looks like the Walz rally went well.

[AmLitHist]

A former colleague won one of the most expensive Congressional primaries. He's a good, decent, and very smart guy. (And he's not likely to camp out on the steps of the Capitol for the cameras.) Winning the Dem primary in that district is winning the seat, so the House will be getting a good man.

His opponent didn't have the class to even concede, let alone congratulate him, which is about as expected.

[Langue_doc]

His opponent didn't have the class to even concede, let alone congratulate him, which is about as expected.

Wasn't she the fifth most AWOL legislator? Despite her calls to defund the police, she got the government to hire her husband as head of her security detail.

[Puget]

Yes, of course I know he has spoken on the subject. Its an assumption that it would have been a distraction.
Will Harris be  distracted by race because she is black and has spoken on racial issues?


Nonetheless, the pick is the pick, and it looks like the Walz rally went well.

A lot of people on the left were super vocal about not wanting Shapiro (not just because of that, but also because he is perceived as more centrist), so I don't think it is a guess that it would have lead to inter-party divisiveness that has miraculously been avoided thus far.

Regardless, from some articles I've read it sounds like it came down to the 1:1 interviews -- Shapiro was negotiating  what role he would play and how much power he would have (he clearly has presidential ambitions of his own, which is fine but maybe not a great fit for the team), whereas Walz basically said "how can I help?". He seems to be doing a great job so far.

[kaysixteen]

Indeed, Shapiro seems to have been using surrogates, such as the mayor of Philly, to essentially label him the nominee before any such decision had been made by Harris.  As the potential first female POTUS, whose veep was going to be a guy, Harris needs loyalty and subordination from said veep, and Shapiro did not seem to have been ranking highly on that score.

[Ruralguy]

True, but you have to win first. Pat of being the boss is sucking it up and doing what you need to do.

Still, the reality is that there may be several ways to win, and all of them might be possible with a variety of VP choices.

So far, seems to be working out for the Dems.