2024 Elections Thread

[Langue_doc]

Dear NYT and other media--stop with the identity politics. Discuss the candidate's qualifictions instead of going on and on about the candidate's appeal to voters based on their skin color, ethnicity, gender, religion, and whatnot. Most voters don't give a da** about whether or not the candidate is black, white, green, or polka-dotted.

Black Men Rally for Kamala Harris, and Confront an Elephant in the Room
"I'm standing behind a Black woman to be president of the United States, and it doesn't make me any less of a Black man," said the Illinois attorney general. "I'm asking all of you all to do the same."

[spork]

Dear NYT and other media--stop with the identity politics. Discuss the candidate's qualifictions instead of going on and on about the candidate's appeal to voters based on their skin color, ethnicity, gender, religion, and whatnot. Most voters don't give a da** about whether or not the candidate is black, white, green, or polka-dotted.

Black Men Rally for Kamala Harris, and Confront an Elephant in the Room
"I'm standing behind a Black woman to be president of the United States, and it doesn't make me any less of a Black man," said the Illinois attorney general. "I'm asking all of you all to do the same."

But that would require research and the ability to communicate topics more complex than "what does this person look like?"

[Ruralguy]

I can't speak to *everything* the NYT covers because I haven't read the entire thing, or even close, on paper or online in a long time.

However, I've seen plenty on "taxes on tips," inflation, Mideast, etc.. These aren't necessarily the deepest of policy discussions, but there has been a steady stream of non-identity, issues related stories.

Harris in particular, if she wins, will be a "first" in some of these identity categories, and many people feel that is a real story. I don't personally put it above policy and just general demeanor and attitudes of a candidate, but to say that no one really cares is disingenuous.


 

[Ruralguy]

Correction: Language_doc didn't say that "noone" cared about identity issues, just that most voters don't care. I suppose that might be correct, if, say, 51% of voters or more don't care. I do not know that *isn't* the case, so I won't press the issue other than to say that a significant % of voters care, which is why the press cares.

[Langue_doc]

Most voters care about issues that affect them, such as cost of living, crime, employment, transportation, medical care, and a host of related factors. There is no evidence to support the media's assumption that people of the same ethnicity, religion, skin color, gender, and the like vote as a group. I recall Hillary making a big deal of "vote for me because I'm a woman"--there was a visual of the glass ceiling being broken during the convention. There were also articles about the "Hispanic" vote, which again were based on the assumption that all South Americans voted as a bloc. I don't think that there was any hoopla about "hooray for women" when Margaret Thatcher or Angela Merkel were elected as they were most likely more qualified than their male opponents. During the last elections some of my Asian students pointed out that there was a long history of women being elected in several South Asian countries without the press going on and on about how wonderful it was that the women made it in male dominated societies. These politicians were elected because of their credentials and not because it was a woman's turn to be elected. Look up the coverage in the local media when women were elected in Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan.

[dismalist]

Women, blacks, whoever.

Maggie Thatcher started off her political career as Minister for Education. She stopped the free milk program. [Probably a good idea. The milk was sour when delivered, though she was actually against stopping. She took a hit for the team: Thatcher, Thatcher, milk snatcher.] Ted Heath, the PM, said that Maggie, the only woman in his cabinet, was the only person who had balls.

It could be that Rachel Reeves, the new Chancellor, could be sane and hence a somewhat Left new Iron Lady. Hope springs eternal.

[Hegemony]

There is no evidence to support the media's assumption that people of the same ethnicity, religion, skin color, gender, and the like vote as a group.

And yet — different voting blocs do favor different candidates. For instance, "And while majorities of both men and women voters who have never been married and do not live with a partner align with the Democratic Party, never-married women are particularly likely to do so:

    Women who have never been married are three times as likely to associate with the Democratic Party as with the Republican Party (72% vs. 24%).
    By a narrower – though still sizable – margin (61% to 37%), never-married men also favor the Democrats.
    Democrats have a substantial advantage among both women and men who live with a partner but are not married, and a narrower edge among those who are divorced or separated.
    Widowed men tilt Republican (55% GOP vs. 44% Democratic, including party leaners), while widowed women are about equally likely to associate with the GOP or Democrats (46% and 47%).
Lesbian, gay and bisexual women overwhelmingly identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party over the GOP (83% vs. 12%). Similarly, the Democratic Party enjoys a wide advantage among gay and bisexual men (83% vs. 17%).

Straight men are more likely to associate with the Republican Party than straight women (55% vs. 47%)."

(Source: Pew Research, https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/partisanship-by-gender-sexual-orientation-marital-and-parental-status/)

I would hardly call that "no evidence."

[Ruralguy]

So, though some may or may not declare interest in a candidate because of who they are, they do indeed seem to identify and vote "with their feet," so to speak.

[Langue_doc]

People do vote with their feet. Prices have gone up to such an extent that low and middle income families can no longer afford their standard of living of just a few years ago. I was surprised to see that my car insurance had gone up by $100 a month, despite the fact that the car is a year older and I still have a clean driving record.

How Food Prices Have Changed Over the Past Four Years
Grocery prices are no longer rising as rapidly, but food inflation remains a top issue for voters, polls show.

The chart is misleading as it doesn't reflect the situation here in the city. Food prices are not coming down, and have not come down for at least six months.

[Ruralguy]

I don't doubt that many people will vote based on inflation, or other economic factors, positive or negative.
But that doesn't mean that identity politics isn't significant.  By the way, it seems important (in the negative) for some conservatives (or maybe, more accurately, Trump aligned voters), with the "Kamabla" nick name and such.
Its ridiculous, but some people seem to go for it.

And yes, since we are behind UK, German, Italy, India, Israel, Mexico, Argentina and a few others, in some cases, by at least 5 decades, in having a woman as a leader, it does drive some to make a bigger deal about it than maybe it otherwise would be.

[Langue_doc]

Here we go again!

In the Race for San Francisco Mayor, Chinese Voters Take Center Stage
The leading mayoral candidates are racing to hire influential activists in the city's large Chinese community and looking for every opportunity to reach Chinese-speaking voters.

Note that it's the candidates who are hiring "influential activists" to persuade voters of Chinese origin to vote for them. Contrary to the implication in the title, the voters aren't taking center stage; it's the candidates who are paying so-called activists to influence the voters in their community under the mistaken assumption that just because a voter belongs to a certain ethnicity he or she is going to follow directives from activists rather than base their decisions on their experience and who they see as aligning with their interests/needs.

[dismalist]

Here we go again!

In the Race for San Francisco Mayor, Chinese Voters Take Center Stage
The leading mayoral candidates are racing to hire influential activists in the city's large Chinese community and looking for every opportunity to reach Chinese-speaking voters.

Note that it's the candidates who are hiring "influential activists" to persuade voters of Chinese origin to vote for them. Contrary to the implication in the title, the voters aren't taking center stage; it's the candidates who are paying so-called activists to influence the voters in their community under the mistaken assumption that just because a voter belongs to a certain ethnicity he or she is going to follow directives from activists rather than base their decisions on their experience and who they see as aligning with their interests/needs.

But this is all consistent with the "rational ignorance of the voter" hypothesis. Recall, we have a near zero probability of determining the outcome of an election, so multiply the outcome of our cost-benefit analysis by zero. The parties know this. So they appeal to emotions. Identity can bring forth an emotion, at least in many of us.

Socialism works in the nuclear family, though even that could be a stretch.

Democracy works in the New England town meeting, though even that could be a stretch.

Looks like we get, maybe even want, dictators by acclamation in larger constituencies.

[Langue_doc]

Yet another misguided attempt to divide and conquer:

Asian American Voters Could Be Key Swing Voters of 2024
The diverse group is turning out in record numbers. Neither party can take its support for granted.

Asian American voters, a hugely diverse group with roots in more than 20 countries and numerous languages spoken, make up the fastest-growing eligible electorate in the country. They are starting to turn out in record numbers. And, crucially, neither party can take their support for granted.

Compared with the general electorate, Asian American voters are twice as likely to identify as purely independent, according to data from American National Election Studies and AAPI Data.

Support for Democrats appears to be slipping among Asian Americans. While roughly two-thirds of Asian Americans voted for President Biden in 2020, that is below the high tide of over 70 percent who voted for Barack Obama's re-election as president in 2012.

Only 59 percent of Asian American voters who identify as Democrats say they are "strong" Democrats — a figure that is lower than the 67 percent of general-population Democrats who see themselves that way, according to an analysis by AAPI Data.

This matters because it suggests that Asian American voters are more persuadable than the general electorate, and possibly more open to campaign messaging and outreach efforts by candidates.

Wishful thinking, indeed, to assume that people from over 20 countries, speaking different languages, are all going to be influenced by "activists/candidates" and vote as a bloc!

From the article I posted yesterday:

And over the years, the Chinese community, the oldest in the nation, has grown more diverse and dispersed. As a result, candidates must work even harder to court leaders and voters in various neighborhoods.

[ciao_yall]

Really interesting analysis from The New York Times which I think is spot-on.

Should be a gift article but LMK if not and I'll post the text.

[evil_physics_witchcraft]

Really interesting analysis from The New York Times which I think is spot-on.

Should be a gift article but LMK if not and I'll post the text.

Link didn't work. Fixed it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/16/opinion/harris-trump-democrats-silent-majority.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Dk4.gzwV.FAlK8CR2fDv6