2024 Elections Thread

[marshwiggle]

Really interesting analysis from The New York Times which I think is spot-on.

Should be a gift article but LMK if not and I'll post the text.

Link didn't work. Fixed it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/16/opinion/harris-trump-democrats-silent-majority.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Dk4.gzwV.FAlK8CR2fDv6

Fascinating insight:

The key figures in this strategy are voters deeply skeptical of elites and alienated from both parties, usually because they lean to the left on economics but have cultural views closer to the center or the right.

That describes a lot of people, and not just working class.

[Ruralguy]

I'm closer to the opposite.

[dismalist]

Here is a survey by Pew, who I think is serious, about voting preferences among various demographic groups. It is only three days old and contains a graphic, so everyone can form their own conclusions:

Harris-Trump-Kennedy

What I find fascinating is that demographic groups identified include gender, race, and educational attainment, but not anything Charlie Marx would have recognized as class. The class war is over. The war of all against all is on.

[Hegemony]

What I find fascinating is that demographic groups identified include gender, race, and educational attainment, but not anything Charlie Marx would have recognized as class. The class war is over.

The organization doesn't seem to sort out groups by class, but I can see some class distinctions going on in the different choices of people with different levels of education. I'd guess the "High School or less" group, if analyzed by other class markers, would be very distinct from the "Postgrad" group or the "College grad" group. Even more so today than in some eras, as a college education, being so expensive for most in recent years, can probably be used as an indirect way of assessing the level of family income both now and in the past.

[marshwiggle]

Here is a survey by Pew, who I think is serious, about voting preferences among various demographic groups. It is only three days old and contains a graphic, so everyone can form their own conclusions:

Harris-Trump-Kennedy

What I find fascinating is that demographic groups identified include gender, race, and educational attainment, but not anything Charlie Marx would have recognized as class. The class war is over. The war of all against all is on.

Fascinating tidbit from the small print:

White, Black and Asian voters include those who report being only one race and are not Hispanic. Hispanics are of any race.

Identitarian inconsistency at its finest.

[Langue_doc]

Identitarian inconsistency at its finest.

I've never figured out who came up with this term and why unlike any of the other divisive names, this one is solely linguistic. I've had "Hispanic" students ranging from people who can be mistaken for African (dark skin, curly hair) all the way to North European blue-eyed blond-haired. Whoever thought that all "Hispanics" vote as a bloc should have their heads examined.

[ciao_yall]

Interesting about the support for Kennedy declining while Harris increases.

Wonder what drove that? Is she taking his voters, or are people who were not thrilled with the leading choices finally making a "real" decision?

Anyway, d@mn uneducated old white people are still voting us into the dark ages.

ETA: A friend told me some pundit was looking for undecided 27 year old voters and couldn't find any women in that category!

[Langue_doc]

Kennedy Sought a Meeting With Harris to Discuss a Cabinet Post
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was unsuccessful with his request to discuss endorsing the Democratic nominee in exchange for a top administration job, according to two people briefed on the outreach.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the independent presidential candidate whose standing has dropped in the polls, sought a meeting with Vice President Kamala Harris to discuss endorsing her in exchange for a promise of a cabinet post, according to two people briefed on the outreach who insisted on anonymity to discuss private conversations.

His effort has been unsuccessful. The news was first reported by The Washington Post.

"We've reached out repeatedly through the highest level intermediaries," Mr. Kennedy wrote in a text message on Wednesday night. "We've been told that they have no interest in talking with me."

There was little chance the Harris campaign would engage with Mr. Kennedy. Public and private polling has found that as he spent the summer attacking President Biden, he began to draw more support from voters otherwise predisposed to back former President Donald J. Trump. Now Ms. Harris does better in some surveys when Mr. Kennedy is included than when she is tested in a head-to-head matchup with Mr. Trump.

Mr. Kennedy, long seen as a potential spoiler in the race, has slipped in polls and struggled to raise money, and he has appeared to consider potential off ramps as speculation has grown about whether he might drop out and, if so, whether he would endorse Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump.

On Wednesday night, Mr. Kennedy wrote: "I've always argued that we should be willing to talk with each other across party lines. I'm willing to meet with leaders of both parties to discuss the possibility of a unity government."

On Thursday, however, he wrote a long post on social media attacking Ms. Harris and dismissing the idea that he would endorse her.

"I have no plans to endorse Kamala Harris for President," he wrote. "I do have a plan to defeat her."

The Post reported last month that Mr. Kennedy had held talks with Mr. Trump about a possible cabinet job, proposing a role in public health leadership, in exchange for his support. And in a leaked video of a phone call between the two men, Mr. Trump tried to cajole Mr. Kennedy to exit the race and endorse him.

"I would love you to do something," the former president said. "And I think it'll be so good for you and so big for you. And we're going to win." Mr. Kennedy said little in response on the call. The two men also met in person in Milwaukee during the Republican National Convention.

Two people familiar with Mr. Kennedy's campaign confirmed that advisers to Mr. Trump had raised the possibility of a cabinet post with people close to Mr. Kennedy, but said the discussions were fluid and inconclusive. The political circumstances were also far different at the time, when Mr. Biden was still in the race and trailing well behind the former president.

A spokesman for Mr. Trump's campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Mr. Kennedy has confronted a range of negative headlines and setbacks in recent weeks.

This month, he acknowledged he had left a dead bear cub in Central Park in Manhattan in 2014 because he thought it would be "amusing."

That bizarre story overshadowed a more serious challenge: a court case in Albany that this week removed him from the ballot in New York. A judge said he had used a "sham" address to maintain his New York residency.

[jimbogumbo]

Interesting about the support for Kennedy declining while Harris increases.

Wonder what drove that? Is she taking his voters, or are people who were not thrilled with the leading choices finally making a "real" decision?

Anyway, d@mn uneducated old white people are still voting us into the dark ages.

ETA: A friend told me some pundit was looking for undecided 27 year old voters and couldn't find any women in that category!

I think your friend is referring to this. In particular, he states there are no young women who are undecided: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4828533-luntz-trump-committing-political-suicide-harris-intensity-advantage/

[Sun_Worshiper]

It was always likely that Kennedy's support would decline as the election approached. But Harris may have accelerated the trend by activating some Democrat-leaning voters that were apathetic (or worse) about Biden.

[dismalist]

...


Anyway, d@mn uneducated old white people are still voting us into the dark ages.

...

They are clearly suffering from false consciousness.

[marshwiggle]

...


Anyway, d@mn uneducated old white people are still voting us into the dark ages.

...

They are clearly suffering from false consciousness.

How fortunate that younger generations have cast off the shackles of ignorance and bigotry imposed on them by their parents and grandparents!

[ciao_yall]

...


Anyway, d@mn uneducated old white people are still voting us into the dark ages.

...

They are clearly suffering from false consciousness.

How fortunate that younger generations have cast off the shackles of ignorance and bigotry imposed on them by their parents and grandparents!

At least they aren't voting for thr Orange Idiot!

[spork]

Here is a survey by Pew, who I think is serious, about voting preferences among various demographic groups. It is only three days old and contains a graphic, so everyone can form their own conclusions:

Harris-Trump-Kennedy

What I find fascinating is that demographic groups identified include gender, race, and educational attainment, but not anything Charlie Marx would have recognized as class. The class war is over. The war of all against all is on.

What will happen on election day:

• At least 40% of the electorate will not vote.
• Only ~ six states will be competitive and determine the electoral college outcome.
• The Fox-watching white retiree segment of the electorate will overwhelmingly vote for Trump because of its fear of non-fat, non-white working people whose taxes pay for their socialist Medicare and Social Security benefits.
• Most of the college-educated under-30s will not vote because they prefer scrolling through TikTok videos.
• Soccer moms will be a key demographic.

The only things that I can see altering the above scenario:

• Trump decompensates on video or suffers a heart attack/stroke.
• Taylor Swift publicly campaigns for Harris.

[Ruralguy]

I don't see your two lists as being mutually exclusive, Spork.

Trump has already decompensated from time to time, and sometimes on camera or on mic, and the effects seem to be minimal. We'll see if in 2024 if his popularity has diminished enough to keep him from being president again.

Taylor Swift is likely not to openly campaign (I think she's touring red states just before the election) , but she might say something such as "Hey, 18 year old fans, go register and go vote!" She won't have to say "Vote Harris!"

I don't think either of those will change *most* people from doing what they'd usually do.