2024 Elections Thread

[RatGuy]

Regarding the 46 million or so people "voting for this guy," I turn to the words of George Carlin: "Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups."

Yes, I know it's condescending to lump all Trump voters together like that, but I'll admit, I've been visiting right sites where the only demons are "wokeism," "DEI," and "neoliberalism," and I've been reading news with different perspectives such as The Free Press, and I put forward my question: "What does Harris mean to you that you're still all in on the convicted felon-fraud-rapist-bigoted guy? What makes her worse?" I've only found three possibilities:

1) Fear of wokeism, DEI, and/or neoliberalism: two mainly useful tools (that can be misused) and one inchoate philosophy. Got it.
2) Related to number 1): Harris is a communist. Or too far left. Or not that bright.
3) The Trump years of presidency were great.

As I can't buy either of those ideas, be they fully formed, half-baked, or simmering somewhere in the seething stew of the pit of humankind's fear and ignorance, I guess I'm still voting for Harris. Plus I sent her about $30 altogether, so there's that.

I'll say that the most vocal folks around me say that Harris is a communist, but they also believe she represents an authoritarian tyrannical nightmare. For example: "these are the people who forced my children to undergo an untested and politically motivated vaccine which subsequently rendered them barren." So for them anything is better than a descent into a dystopia they imagine. Getting to stick it to trans folks is just lagniappe

[secundem_artem]

Upthread somewhere, I ventured an opinion that MAGA folk were idiots.  Several of you were critical of that post.  Fair enough.  It was kinda heated.  But here we are a few weeks later and...

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/15/us/politics/trump-opponents-enemy-within.html

And yet I am not supposed to condescend to the people who will vote for this guy.  I have spent a long time trying to understand a typical Trump voter.  I finally came to the conclusion that they are often people whom 21st century capitalism left in the dust.  I actually agree with that concern.  I can understand they are looking for someone who can offer relief from a difficult life.  I don't understand how they believe that Trump is the guy to fix their problems but at least I think I understand a bit of where they come from.  And then .......

Stories like the one I have linked above make me wonder if my analysis is correct.  It seems just as likely that these folks really are perhaps not very bright, perhaps racist, perhaps so filled with hate that "burn it all down" is a good idea, perhaps totally dismissive of anyone with a different religion, sexual orientation, level of education.

These folks have no respect for me, yet, as a good sorta liberal person, I am supposed to respect them.  Wow.  Just wow.

Long story short, Trump is running on a platform of "I hate the same people you do" and that is not a governing philosophy suitable for running the largest economy and most powerful nation on earth.

And yet, he has a very good chance of being elected.  And this time around, he will ONLY surround himself with quislings and loyalists who will enable him to carry out his revenge fantasies.  Gawd help us all.

[dismalist]

In tribal fashion, no one seems to see the inherent symmetry in the situation:

--Half the voters think the other half the voters need therapy. Both halves could be right.
--Half the voters think the other half has law-violating leadership. Both halves could be right.
--Half the voters think the other half the voters are taking away their rights. Both halves could be right.

The most insightful sentence was written by secundem_artem, just above:

I finally came to the conclusion that they [the bad Trumpists]are often people whom 21st century capitalism left in the dust.  I actually agree with that concern.

There is a lot to that, but aided and abetted by government policy oblivious to losers, say, since after Bill Clinton's time. But in that context I would point to another symmetry:

-Half the voters believe the government has not done enough for them and the other half think it has done more for the first half. Both halves could be right.

Given these divisions of interests, it is fully rational for the political parties to concentrate on demonizing the other side. Great for turnout, as nobody has an open mind to be convinced.

My sympathies have always been with the working stiffs, and so they are this time around.

[spork]

[...]

I finally came to the conclusion that they are often people whom 21st century capitalism left in the dust. 

Authoritarian cognitive predisposition is still a simpler explanation.

I can understand they are looking for someone who can offer relief from a difficult life.

I think it's more like the self-centered narcissists who didn't learn how to get along well with others and share toys in kindergarten. "I didn't get mine, I don't want anyone else to get theirs, so burn it all down."

Also, unemployed meth and fentanyl addicts tend not to vote. Trump pulls in substantial support from the hedge fund managers in suburban southern Connecticut and northern California who think he's going to lower their taxes, the rest of society be damned.

You're right about the quislings competing for a space in Trump's inner circle. They are happy to play The Apprentice for a shot at power and wealth.

[jimbogumbo]

The sheer number of people who truly believe conspiracy theories is mind-boggling. Just listen to them. The union of ant-vaxxers, CIA + FBI corrupt and everywhere, QAnon (adrenochrome, child blood drinking, JFK jr, Jewish space lasers) and electronic vote stealing is a large Trump voting bloc. I mean, weather manipulation and FEMA-hating is bizarre. They are getting played, and it's making the 2016-2020-2024 elections a nightmare for anyone on either side who is rational on issues.

[dismalist]

... it's making the 2016-2020-2024 elections a nightmare for anyone on either side who is rational on issues.

Got anybody in mind? I don't even know those three guys' on each side's fax numbers!

Symmetry I tell you, symmetry!

[evil_physics_witchcraft]

[...]

"What does Harris mean to you that you're still all in on the convicted felon-fraud-rapist-bigoted guy? What makes her worse?" I've only found three possibilities:

1) Fear of wokeism, DEI, and/or neoliberalism: two mainly useful tools (that can be misused) and one inchoate philosophy. Got it.
2) Related to number 1): Harris is a communist. Or too far left. Or not that bright.
3) The Trump years of presidency were great.

[...]

authoritarian cognitive predisposition

Yup.

[ciao_yall]

Upthread somewhere, I ventured an opinion that MAGA folk were idiots.  Several of you were critical of that post.  Fair enough.  It was kinda heated.  But here we are a few weeks later and...

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/15/us/politics/trump-opponents-enemy-within.html

And yet I am not supposed to condescend to the people who will vote for this guy.  I have spent a long time trying to understand a typical Trump voter.  I finally came to the conclusion that they are often people whom 21st century capitalism left in the dust.  I actually agree with that concern.  I can understand they are looking for someone who can offer relief from a difficult life.  I don't understand how they believe that Trump is the guy to fix their problems but at least I think I understand a bit of where they come from.  And then .......

Stories like the one I have linked above make me wonder if my analysis is correct.  It seems just as likely that these folks really are perhaps not very bright, perhaps racist, perhaps so filled with hate that "burn it all down" is a good idea, perhaps totally dismissive of anyone with a different religion, sexual orientation, level of education.

These folks have no respect for me, yet, as a good sorta liberal person, I am supposed to respect them.  Wow.  Just wow.

Long story short, Trump is running on a platform of "I hate the same people you do" and that is not a governing philosophy suitable for running the largest economy and most powerful nation on earth.

And yet, he has a very good chance of being elected.  And this time around, he will ONLY surround himself with quislings and loyalists who will enable him to carry out his revenge fantasies.  Gawd help us all.

To be fair... as we migrated from a manufacturing economy to a tech economy, we failed to invest in the quality education needed for people to be employable with a high school diploma.

So people who finished high school have few options because, between a crappy education and a stupidly low minimum wage, the possibility of a decent "middle class" life is not what it was.

[marshwiggle]

An interesting analysis of US voting trends from a non-US perspective is
Why is Trump Doing So Well With Minority Voters?

It's kind of refreshing to see something not dripping with partisan angst from one side or the other.

(And it contains some really surprising bits of information.)

[spork]

Prediction markets are showing a Trump victory.

I'm scoping out possible retirement locations in Canada.

[secundem_artem]

Upthread somewhere, I ventured an opinion that MAGA folk were idiots.  Several of you were critical of that post.  Fair enough.  It was kinda heated.  But here we are a few weeks later and...

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/15/us/politics/trump-opponents-enemy-within.html

And yet I am not supposed to condescend to the people who will vote for this guy.  I have spent a long time trying to understand a typical Trump voter.  I finally came to the conclusion that they are often people whom 21st century capitalism left in the dust.  I actually agree with that concern.  I can understand they are looking for someone who can offer relief from a difficult life.  I don't understand how they believe that Trump is the guy to fix their problems but at least I think I understand a bit of where they come from.  And then .......

Stories like the one I have linked above make me wonder if my analysis is correct.  It seems just as likely that these folks really are perhaps not very bright, perhaps racist, perhaps so filled with hate that "burn it all down" is a good idea, perhaps totally dismissive of anyone with a different religion, sexual orientation, level of education.

These folks have no respect for me, yet, as a good sorta liberal person, I am supposed to respect them.  Wow.  Just wow.

Long story short, Trump is running on a platform of "I hate the same people you do" and that is not a governing philosophy suitable for running the largest economy and most powerful nation on earth.

And yet, he has a very good chance of being elected.  And this time around, he will ONLY surround himself with quislings and loyalists who will enable him to carry out his revenge fantasies.  Gawd help us all.

To be fair... as we migrated from a manufacturing economy to a tech economy, we failed to invest in the quality education needed for people to be employable with a high school diploma.

So people who finished high school have few options because, between a crappy education and a stupidly low minimum wage, the possibility of a decent "middle class" life is not what it was.

No doubt you are correct.  I've always thought that Bernie Sanders and Trump had both identified the problem as limited opportunities for the working class.  Trump blamed immigrants, while Bernie blamed 21st century capitalism.  For some reason, Trump won that argument despite the fact that Juan Diego did not take your job so much as your CEO sold it out from under you.  And when that happened, neither party has had a decent plan to address the problem. Maybe when AI starts to come for us white collar types, we'll figure out what to do.  In the meantime the politics of anger seems to win the day.

[marshwiggle]

I've always thought that Bernie Sanders and Trump had both identified the problem as limited opportunities for the working class.  Trump blamed immigrants, while Bernie blamed 21st century capitalism.  For some reason, Trump won that argument despite the fact that Juan Diego did not take your job so much as your CEO sold it out from under you.  And when that happened, neither party has had a decent plan to address the problem. Maybe when AI starts to come for us white collar types, we'll figure out what to do.  In the meantime the politics of anger seems to win the day.

It's odd that basically all of the discussion is around the question "Why would anyone vote for *Trump, given all of his flaws?", and virtually none is around "Why do people refuse to vote for Harris, given that several of her policies might be in their own best interest?"

The latter question requires more honesty; the former just requires a lot of incredulity and self-righteousness.


(*The discussion also rarely addresses the proportion of people planning to vote Republican even though they dislike Trump. That also would start to get at other issues that are being either overlooked, or are being treated as inconsequential.)

[Parasaurolophus]

Prediction markets are showing a Trump victory.

I'm scoping out possible retirement locations in Canada.

I'm sorry to say, you probably don't have enough points. Ours is not a particularly compassionate immigration system.

[Sun_Worshiper]

Prediction markets are showing a Trump victory.

I'm scoping out possible retirement locations in Canada.

Trump may win, but prediction markets are meaningless. The folks betting have no idea what will happen and they are far from a representative sample. Polling is a better guide, but even that should be taken with a grain of salt given tendency for polling error - sometimes favoring Rs and sometimes Ds.

[Sun_Worshiper]

Prediction markets are showing a Trump victory.

I'm scoping out possible retirement locations in Canada.

I'm sorry to say, you probably don't have enough points. Ours is not a particularly compassionate immigration system.

I checked a few years back and made it over the line by a hair. And my wife has a useful job so she cleared the bar pretty easily.

Not looking to move to Canada, but just saying.