2024 Elections Thread

[Sun_Worshiper]

Trump is old and crazy, so who knows, but I doubt Vance would do that or that the loyalists around Trump would let him

[ciao_yall]

This election reminds me, oddly, of 2000. I thought Bush and Gore were both idiots. I tuned out after watching about 15 minutes of one debate between the two. For some strange reason, I tuned into the Vice-Presidential debate, and discovered that both Lieberman and Cheney appeared far more intelligent than the two at the top of the ticket!

In this election, I like neither top candidate. Not to get too substantive, but just as an example, both their approaches to economic policy are from never-never-land. There's real symmetry there! So, I'm for Trump because I mistrust the Left, not for anything to do with Trump.  Ms. Harris is a litany of word salads, whose main platform plank is -- Trump!

Now, Walz is surely a disappointment to some, but he beats Ms. Harris in my estimation. And while Vance's policies mimic Trump's, he seems far more polished, civilized, and perhaps even intelligent than Trump.

A better presidential race would be Walz-Vance!

So you trust Trump's backers (Putin , Orban, Musk, Thiel) more than you trust people you generally don't agree with on every issue?

Okay there then...

[nebo113]

I do

Does anyone else think that, if Trump is elected, it'll actually be Prez. Vance within a year or less?  That's been a nightmare I've been trying to avoid thinking about for weeks, and still can't shake.

. 

I do.  He's malleable which will be easier for the far right to manipulate than he who is demented.

[marshwiggle]

An interesting result from a recent poll of Canadians about the US election:

If Canadians could vote in the U.S. election, 64% would vote for Kamala Harris, 21% for Donald Trump, and 15% are unsure. Canadians aged 55 and older (77%), Quebecers (72%), and women (70%) are more likely to support Harris, while respondents aged 18 to 34 (29%) and Conservative voters (45%) are more likely to support Trump. Conservative voters are split with 42% saying they would support Harris.

The fact that Canadian conservative voters are almost evenly split between Trump and Harris reflects how much difference there is between Canadian and American conservatism, even though many, (including many on the Canadian left), pretend otherwise.

[secundem_artem]

An interesting result from a recent poll of Canadians about the US election:

If Canadians could vote in the U.S. election, 64% would vote for Kamala Harris, 21% for Donald Trump, and 15% are unsure. Canadians aged 55 and older (77%), Quebecers (72%), and women (70%) are more likely to support Harris, while respondents aged 18 to 34 (29%) and Conservative voters (45%) are more likely to support Trump. Conservative voters are split with 42% saying they would support Harris.

The fact that Canadian conservative voters are almost evenly split between Trump and Harris reflects how much difference there is between Canadian and American conservatism, even though many, (including many on the Canadian left), pretend otherwise.

It's been a while since I've lived in the Great White North, but I've always thought that the Conservatives in Canada would be on the conservative side of the Democratic party if they lived in the States.  So Canadian Conservatives voting for Kamala does not really surprise me.

[spork]

"Conservative" no longer means what it used to mean in the USA. A more appropriate term is "idolater."

[Myword]

So far most people including the educated toss around labels and dumb baseless
comments that only display ignorance. American voters are typically naive gullible
with short memories. And this passes for critical thinking. People do not even know academically
what it means. Well I have a very long memory because I have been around longer
 Democracy.  The stupidest opinion counts the same as the wisest
I am no expert by any means but I am a decent judge of character and human nature

[dismalist]

So far most people including the educated toss around labels and dumb baseless
comments that only display ignorance. American voters are typically naive gullible
with short memories. And this passes for critical thinking. People do not even know academically
what it means. Well I have a very long memory because I have been around longer
 Democracy.  The stupidest opinion counts the same as the wisest
I am no expert by any means but I am a decent judge of character and human nature

Brilliant: All we gotta figure out is which opinion is the stupidest and which is the wisest!

No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time....'
Winston S Churchill, 11 November 1947

Democracy works iff the bums can be thrown out without war. That's all it can do.

[Sea_Ice]

I do

Does anyone else think that, if Trump is elected, it'll actually be Prez. Vance within a year or less?  That's been a nightmare I've been trying to avoid thinking about for weeks, and still can't shake.

. 

I do.  He's malleable which will be easier for the far right to manipulate than he who is demented.

It's a relief that I'm not alone in seeing some of this!

If by "malleable" you mean "has no principles and is willing to support/do anything that will result in money or power or other personal gain" then I agree with using that term as a summary.  Vance's history, even if you just look at the total about-face that preceded his selection as VP nominee, should have prevented him from ever being vetted for such a position.  Like so many others, he seems to have clearly seen Trump's problems and realized that they provide massive opportunities for the unscrupulous.

To be clear, I never have voted for Trump and never will - I'd rather die.

However, I do have a bunch of direct experience with severely narcissistic people, and with the elderly who are into cognitive decline and actual dementia.  The fact that I can feel sympathy when I see their limitations - and often their pain as they struggle to make sense of the world - does not mean that I think them suited to have influence of any sort over others.  Protect them, yes where possible.  Give them actual power - NEVER!  If this doesn't quite make sense, imagine letting a toddler decide everything about how you will run your home and life.

I'm trying not to worry myself into severe health issues about this election - I just hope that the sensible adults in this country severely out-number those who are not able to see the full picture, or have no memory of his first term, or are engaged in some sort of wishful thinking (or revenge fantasies!).

[Ruralguy]

Its not that I don't see your points. I just don't think we're going to see a 25th amendment situation, and definitely not early in the administration.

And I'll settle for "out number" (and in the right places), rather than "severely out number" (which I don't think is likely).

[Sun_Worshiper]

The 25th Amendment would be next to impossible given that T will be surrounded by loyalists and it would be political suicide for Vance's 2028 hopes.

That said, Trump is old so he might not make it through the term (if they win, which is far from a foregone conclusion), but that is another matter.

[dismalist]

Just came across a short, lovely video on the relationship between election prediction models and election betting markets. Glenn Loury interviews Rajiv Sethi.

Prediction Markets

When you tune in, don't let the title of the video lead you astray.

[spork]

Just came across a short, lovely video on the relationship between election prediction models and election betting markets. Glenn Loury interviews Rajiv Sethi.

Prediction Markets

When you tune in, don't let the title of the video lead you astray.

I should have assumed this by default, but I just learned that the crypto tech bros who back the online prediction markets are running ads with the goal of swinging the markets further in favor of Trump.

[spork]

One story related to the topic of my previous post:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-election-betting-polymarket-gives-142008194.html

[dismalist]

One story related to the topic of my previous post:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-election-betting-polymarket-gives-142008194.html

Of course markets can be rigged, as mentioned in the video I posted! It's still a gamble, and it's real money. The rigger can expect to pay unless he can determine the outcome of the election. The causal chain between election market odds and enough people making a voting decision based on those odds is a long one with many potential breaks. Oh, and the bigger the market, the more expensive it is to try to rig it. Try rigging the S&P 500!

The thoughtful thing to do at present is to consider the betting odds as a piece of information additional to the survey results [models].