2024 Elections Thread

[Langue_doc]

The interview is before Biden's bedtime. As dismalist noted above, the interview will be aired at 8 PM.

High-stakes interview: Mr. Biden's sit-down with George Stephanopoulos of ABC News will be his first major interview since the debate intensified long-simmering fears about his fitness for office. He will almost surely face tougher questions than he did during a set of friendly interviews that aired Thursday with two Black talk radio hosts, during which he stumbled on his words and made a pair of verbal gaffes. The full ABC interview, taped earlier on Friday, will be broadcast at 8 p.m. Eastern time.

[Parasaurolophus]

I'll just add: I see that tonight's Stephanopoulos interview is scheduled for... *checks time*... 20h00.

So much for not scheduling anything past his bedtime. WTF?!

Stephanopoulos is expected to talk to President Biden earlier in the day Friday from the campaign trail in Wisconsin. The first clip of the interview will air on Friday's broadcast of "World News Tonight" as planned, then in a primetime special at 8 p.m. eastern ... .
--Variety

Time left to edit?

I see. I thought it was live, which was hella risky, but also had a potentially big payoff.

Yeah, sounds like they'll be editing, then. So that presumably won't quell worries all that much, especially if he keeps gaffeing left and right over the next many days and weeks.

[jimbogumbo]

Doesn't seem as though CNN is all in on Biden: https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/05/health/gupta-biden-cognitive-testing-analysis/index.html

[Parasaurolophus]

You might have expected a rush to conduct and release the results from a barrage of tests, in the wake of the debate disaster. You kind of have to believe that it didn't happen because aides are rather worried about what such testing might show. (They might, of course, be wrong to worry. But I would have thought they'd just do it then suppress bad results.)

[Ruralguy]

I would have never expected that. No President has been particularly forthcoming in this regard, even under similar circumstances. They all always just say the docs all say they are fine, eventhough you have to believe now that its unlikely to be true. i doubt hed ever submit to testing by a third party.

[dismalist]

Doesn't seem as though CNN is all in on Biden: https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/05/health/gupta-biden-cognitive-testing-analysis/index.html

CNN has bled market share. They wish to reposition themselves in opinion space, and are testing the waters.

Long ago it was called Clinton News Network. Maybe now it'll become Centrist News Network! That space is currently quite empty.

[dismalist]

The current imbroglio reminds me of how Jim Hacker, of Yes, Minister fame became Prime Minister.

Here it used to be the smoke-filled rooms, then the primaries, whereas in England it's the Civil Service. Here is a short excerpt from the corresponding episode:

Prime Minister

[Parasaurolophus]

The current imbroglio reminds me of how Jim Hacker, of Yes, Minister fame became Prime Minister.

Here it used to be the smoke-filled rooms, then the primaries, whereas in England it's the Civil Service. Here is a short excerpt from the corresponding episode:

Prime Minister

Yes Minister/Prime Minister is a real gem of political education.

[kaysixteen]

Well, the nightmare scenario for the Dems is that Biden does not stand aside now, and then either in the Sept. debate, has another repeat performance, and/or c. Oct. 1st, has some sort of medical episode... would it even be possible to remove him from the ticket, unless the circumstances actually warranted 25th amendment intervention, at that late date?

[dismalist]

I appreciate your posts very much, Langue_doc. This bit of a long citation

There's a formal name for this trap: escalation of commitment to a losing course of action. In the face of impending failure, extensive evidence shows that instead of rethinking our plans, we often double down on our decisions. It feels better to be a fighter than a quitter.

One of the tragedies of the human condition is that we use our big brains not to make rational decisions, but rather to rationalize the decisions we've already made.

left me uneasily puzzled. After listening to this evenings interview, I think I have an answer: President Biden is behaving perfectly rationally: He has nothing to lose by staying in the race.

This means others would have to get him to opt out. But they are making the same calculation! What do they have to lose? Depends on the replacement.

Remember the Nixon opt out after the three Kings visited him? Yeah, but there was a credible threat of impeachment and removal awaiting him. That is not the case here.

[Parasaurolophus]

I appreciate your posts very much, Langue_doc. This bit of a long citation

There's a formal name for this trap: escalation of commitment to a losing course of action. In the face of impending failure, extensive evidence shows that instead of rethinking our plans, we often double down on our decisions. It feels better to be a fighter than a quitter.

One of the tragedies of the human condition is that we use our big brains not to make rational decisions, but rather to rationalize the decisions we've already made.

left me uneasily puzzled. After listening to this evenings interview, I think I have an answer: President Biden is behaving perfectly rationally: He has nothing to lose by staying in the race.

This means others would have to get him to opt out. But they are making the same calculation! What do they have to lose? Depends on the replacement.

Remember the Nixon opt out after the three Kings visited him? Yeah, but there was a credible threat of impeachment and removal awaiting him. That is not the case here.

I think he does have something to lose. He clearly is strongly motivated by the idea that he beat Donald Trump, and that he's the only one who can. He thinks of that as part of his legacy, and it's closely tied to his ego. So he's understandably in love with the idea that he'll do it again (especially if he does it as an underdog this time).

But that does mean that there's a big downside, which is that he may well lose (and is currently on course to do so). Because you don't get much credit for beating Trump if you turn around and inflict him on everyone again. Especially if it turns out that everyone was correct about your cognitive decline (which, of course, you cannot recognize for yourself). Then you just look like a real chump, and everyone will be pissed at you.

[spork]

[...]

you don't get much credit for beating Trump if you turn around and inflict him on everyone again.

[...]

This is the message that Democratic senators and governors need to be sending to Biden and his inner circle. Go down in history either as one of the most successful presidents in modern history or as a loser.

[Langue_doc]

Crisis? What Crisis? Biden Rejects Democratic Pessimism.
After last week's devastating debate performance, the president's prime-time interview with ABC News was an exercise in not just damage control but reality control.

The first few paragraphs from the article by Peter Baker, who has covered the past five presidents:

All sounds fine in President Biden's world. That devastating debate? Just a bad night. Those dismal poll numbers? Simply inaccurate. The gloomy election predictions? The same old doomsayers, wrong again. The Democrats who want him to drop out? No one has told him that.

For Mr. Biden, the crisis seen by so many Democrats who are not on his payroll — and by some who are — is nothing more than another bump in the road, another obstacle to overcome as he always has. He does not agree that he is slipping as he ages. He does not accept that he is losing to former President Donald J. Trump. He does not believe much of his own party wants him to step aside.

His prime-time interview that aired on ABC News on Friday night was an exercise not just in damage control but in reality control. For much of his long and storied political career, Mr. Biden has succeeded through sheer force of will, defying the doubters and the skeptics and the scorners to prove that he could do what no one expected. Yet now, in what may be the most threatened moment of his presidency, that self-confidence leaves him increasingly isolated in his own party.

"You really see a president in denial and in a bubble," Julián Castro, a former housing secretary who ran against Mr. Biden for the Democratic nomination in 2020, said in an interview. "You want a president who can honestly and accurately assess his viability in this race, and that interview did not give confidence at all that he's got a good handle on that."

David Axelrod, a former senior adviser to President Barack Obama who has long expressed worry about Mr. Biden's decision to run again, said the president was rightfully proud of his record. "But he is dangerously out-of-touch with the concerns people have about his capacities moving forward and his standing in this race," he wrote on social media.

[Langue_doc]

Apologies for the double post, but here are two more articles from the NYT.

The good news, sort of,...

Jeffries Plans to Meet Virtually With Top House Democrats on Biden's Path Ahead
The House minority leader scheduled a virtual meeting for Sunday.

But,

A Defiant Biden Says Only the 'Lord Almighty' Could Drive Him From the Race
President Biden dismissed concerns about his age, his mental acuity and polls showing him losing his re-election bid.

ETA: I have a few more free/shared articles, so let me know if you'd like me to post links to any of the articles above. You might also be able to access these articles from your campus library account.

[Ruralguy]

At this point,I dont see Biden going anywhere. I dont think heart to hearts with Jeffries or Mark Warner are going to do anything. I think ots almost time to give up on replacing Biden.