Fall 2024 preliminary enrollment CCs, Certificates and for-profits

[Hibush]

The National Student Clearing House has preliminary fall-term enrollment numbers out.

This gives a sense of the comeback from Covid and the hot post-covid job market that diverted some potential college students to the work force. Some of the results fit the trends we discuss here, but there are some anomalies.

The big upticks are community colleges and for-profits. Certificate programs have a big percentage increase, but from a relatively small base. Using a schools existing strengths and infrastructure to offer those at low marginal cost is probably a good thing. I hope community colleges outcompete the for-profits in this market.

Students from low income homes are moving more towards 2-year than 4-year programs.

White males are getting less common. Is that because more of them think college is a scam, or is there enough high-paying work that they have an easier time getting? Important dynamics at play that would be valuable to understand. 
 
The field of study with the biggest % increase was...humanities and liberal arts at 22%. Followed by construction trades and mechanics. The focus on job prospects remains strong. Visual and performing arts was actually down. It is also the one with the lowest ROI (when return is calculated as dollar of income.

Selective 4yr schools have much bigger increases than non-selective. A lot of professor complaints are about students who should not be in college. How big an enrolment decline at non-selective schools would it take to bring the proportion of unprepared and disengaged students down to an acceptable level?