What's your weather?

[Juvenal]

Blissful today, and what I call, "A gift from Canada."  It's not Mounties and maple syrup, but cool, dry, breezy air from the NW.  At least that's what's here in the NY Metro area.  A friend is off to a time-share in Orlando tomorrow.  The forecast there is... hellish.  Sort of like a few days ago around here.  December in Orlando: OK; August in Orlando, well, "beware the time-share."

[apl68]

Earlier this week the rain gave us about a day and a half of notably cooler weather.  Now the heat is back in force, and the extended forecast calls for it to be reinforced in the days to come.

[apl68]

Now in the midst of our second straight day of all-day rain.  That's something we hadn't seen in a long, long time.  I suppose it's the same system that has just hit parts of Texas so hard.  We're getting the rain more gradually.  I learned a little while ago that we've had three and a half inches so far, which means we're probably about halfway to what we're going to get this week.  This should bust our drought and end the local burn bans.  I'm glad the rain has come non-destructively, without winds and lightning and extreme downpour.

[mamselle]

Cloudy, it's barely rained at all despite the little promised clouds with droplets in my weather app.

At least it's cooler.

M.

[apl68]

Still raining!  It was finally not raining early this morning when I got up, so I did my morning walk for the first time in several days.  It started raining fairly quickly.  I had an umbrella and was good.  Then, in the final twenty minutes or so of the walk, it poured and poured, and I ended up soaked even with the umbrella.  Then it stopped again. 

The extended forecast calls for solid rainy days as far out as it goes.  This drought relief is getting to be too much of a good thing.  I saw an article only a day or two ago about the growing incidence of "flip-flop" weather that goes straight from drought to flooding.  You ain't kidding!

[mamselle]

In the 80s, and the tiny bits of rain we keep being promised haven't materialized (coalesced?) yet.

But better than last week in the 90s.

M.

[mamselle]

I realize there are microclimates, but how do you get flash flood warnings out of a drizzle?

M.

[FishProf]

If the ground is so dry that water runs off rather than soaking in, a normal drizzle can quickly overwhelm existing drainage.

Have you ever seen water bead-up on a bone-dry sponge?  Same effect.

[mamselle]

Well, yes, I know all that, but I'm thinking more along the lines of: there are three days of promised rain in my weather app, with flash-flood warnings at 5 AM today, and all I've seen so far is a barely wet sidewalk.

More along the lines of the tendency to over-predict, or as I like to call it, the "Harvey Leonard" effect.

Not meaning to take away from the terrible scenes occurring elsewhere, or to denigrate the need for help in those areas.

M.

[ab_grp]

Mamselle, could it have to do with how they are defining probability or % precipitation or your forecast area? I recently found out that the interpretation can be different.

[FishProf]

The road to my house was flooded out this afternoon.  It's not anymore.  I'll be looking at a recent beaver damn to see if it survived on my morning walk tomorrow.

[hmaria1609]

We're getting rain overnight as Labor Day weekend ends:
https://wtop.com/local/2022/09/unofficial-end-of-summer-culminates-in-rainy-wet-weather-in-dc-area/
It was raining earlier today but it didn't do much to cool the air.

[mamselle]

Mamselle, could it have to do with how they are defining probability or % precipitation or your forecast area? I recently found out that the interpretation can be different.

It may well, I'll have a better sense after tomorrow's walk along the brook and the river in the AM.

Yesterday, the water over the river's inverted V was so low at the sides that two geese were just standing up in it, staying put. 

They usually paddle around a bit, it took me a minute to realize they weren't moving because their feet were flat down on the river bottom.

M.

[Langue_doc]

It's finally raining here.

Yesterday I drove home in pouring rain, through hilly country, with the visibility so bad in one section that people were driving with their flashers on because you could barely see the car in front of you, and the fastest you could get was around 35 miles in a 70-mile zone. About 25 miles or so from home, however, everything looked dry as could be, so today's rain is a welcome relief.

[mamselle]

Still really just drizzly-droppy, I was not even completely wet after my hour's walk.

River, brook only up an inch overnight; 8-10 inches yet to catch up to the bank level of a year or more ago.

M.