International News Events: Asked and Answered...

[mamselle]

Thanks.

No, no vetted interests on my part, just a wish to know more of the backstory to the paltry international tidbits that make their way through the narrowly filtered American reportage seive.

Tell me more about the issues with the Kims, though. That sounds like something I should know more about.

M.

[spork]

Why was the recent firing of Turkey's central bank governor a news-worthy event in the U.S. (headline/blurb appeared for a few hours in some news outlets)? Here's a good summary:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/08/business/turkey-economy-crisis.html.

Continuing depreciation of the lira = good time for foreigners to visit.

[sandgrounder]

Anyone with an understanding of recent EU issues who can define "Spitzenkandidat" and--maybe more to the point, explain WHY that system was sidestepped?

I have a cousin in Belgium and friends in Strasbourg, all of whom are either puzzled, angry, or both.

M.

The idea was that each political group in the European Parliament would choose a lead candidate or Spitzenkandidat and the candidate of the group that got the most seats in the election would become the European Commission president. It first was used in 2014 and was how Juncker got the job. There were many politicians who would have been better than Juncker so it wasn't a great outcome. His party group, the EPP chose another problematic candidate, Manfred Weber (why when there was a good choice open to them in Alexander Stubb beats me). Weber is both uncharismatic and unprincipled, having decided his best chance of the top job was to keep the Hungarian party Fidesz in his group, despite their leader Victor Orban trampling over Hungary's democracy and system of checks and balances and refusal to respect EU policy on human rights. The national heads of government ( meeting as the European Council) were unimpressed with Weber, but although other Spitzenkandidaten (Timmermans for the social democrats and Vestager for the liberals) were thought decent they didn't have a majority. So the solution was to find an acceptable German EPP candidate i.e. Ursula von der Leyen. Whether the European Parliament will vote to confirm her nomination is unclear.

[mamselle]

Thank you.

I can see better now why my cousins and friends are upset.

How does all this interact with the Brexit issues?

Does it worsen the EU's position, not to have as strong a leader, or do they hold so many of the cards already that it doesn't really matter?

M.

[sandgrounder]

Thank you.

I can see better now why my cousins and friends are upset.

How does all this interact with the Brexit issues?

Does it worsen the EU's position, not to have as strong a leader, or do they hold so many of the cards already that it doesn't really matter?

M.

I don't think it makes any difference.  The withdrawal agreement is agreed (and the fantasies of UK politicians that this is not the case are fantasies) but can't get past the UK parliament. The fate of the UK is in the hands of UK politicians (God help us as I live there) or if a second referendum / election is called, the UK voters. The only decision that the EU may have to take is whether to grant a further extension at the end of October - I think they would for a vote but not otherwise. That would be handled by the new Council President, Charles Michel.

[mamselle]

That had been my sense, as well, that all those trying to use Brexit to further all kinds of other agendae were delusional: the EU layout was pretty clear.

But I was hearing from others that May's failure to vet the agreement "among the powers boys that be" was the issue behind the issue, which I can also understand, but it still wouldn't change the overall picture.

I hope all the turmoil doesn't create such instability that other things start to become more difficult as well.

But then those of us sitting on this side of the frog pond wonder that about the bullfrog tooting away on this lilypad, too...

M.

[backatit]

Big news today as MP's in the UK vote to extend marriage and abortion rights to Northern Ireland, despite the lack of a standing government in Stormont. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jul/09/mps-vote-to-extend-same-sex-marriage-to-northern-ireland

[mamselle]

Whoa. I didn't realize the UK's structure didn't already extend (or obtain) there.

I know the "RC/S. Ireland" divorce laws changed many years ago (I'd have to look it up, but I recall it was awhile back); I don't imagine abortion laws have changed there, but I guess I didn't realize that Northern Ireland was still in limbo as well.

Thanks--I suspect I need to think of NI more like Wales or Scotland than I've been doing (and we have Scots-Irish ancestors as well; you'd think I'd have caught onto this by now).

Wondering: was it actually "because of" or "despite" the lack of a Stormont government?

M.

[backatit]

They need a standing government in Stormont to ratify it, but they wouldn't be likely to get it past that government. So the answer is likely...both, it's complicated. So the compromise is that if the NI govt doesn't get its act together and ratify this, the larger UK government will "recognize" any marriages done as legitimate. As with anything to do with NI, it's always going to be complex.

I'm not terribly well-versed in NI politics (I have a friend who is, and he and I discuss it from time to time but it's REALLY convoluted - I am pretty used to the Parlimentary system and can follow the UK political scene fairly easily but then you throw NI in and I'm always like "is the govt standing yet?" because sometimes they are, and sometimes they aren't and when they're not, it gets really confusing).

[mamselle]

So, what's the take on the current Brexit process?

M.

[backatit]

BJ is an a%% and everyone has given up and is waiting for the inevitable recession. The mood in London last week was pretty grim, but resigned. The politicians will, as always, do what they will.

[mamselle]

So, is it accurate to say that May was right, and the agreement scenario is as she depicted it?

In other words the only gain was B. Johnson's ability to say he's been PM of the UK now?

Or...

M.

[backatit]

So I keep trying to come up with an intelligent answer to this, and I don't think there ARE any. May didn't get much help, but she also didn't have to invoke article 50, although there probably would have been a revolt had she not.

Honestly, I am starting to think my MIL is getting the PM she deserves because she won't shut up about BJ being the second coming of some sort of Brave New England, although god help the rest of us. I only hope my partner is right that his industry is as recession proof as it has been in the past.

I'm not very coherent about it lately - I think everyone is just sick of it, and frustrated, and not really quite sure what to do. The people in the office just kind of walk around shaking their heads and doing the same sort of incoherent grumbling I'm doing now. Everyone is holding their breath waiting for October, and trying to not read the news.

[mamselle]

And now the Queen has approved the prorogation of the British Parliament...curtailing discussion until a few days before the October exit:

My Twitter feed said:

"The Queen has approved for Parliament to be shut down for a period of around a month, to start "no earlier than Monday 9th September and no later than Thursday 12th September until October 14th."

I don't plan to follow "#StoptheCoup" but it did bring phrases like "Star-Chamber" to mind...

M.

[archaeo42]

And now the Queen has approved the prorogation of the British Parliament...curtailing discussion until a few days before the October exit:

My Twitter feed said:

"The Queen has approved for Parliament to be shut down for a period of around a month, to start "no earlier than Monday 9th September and no later than Thursday 12th September until October 14th."

I don't plan to follow "#StoptheCoup" but it did bring phrases like "Star-Chamber" to mind...

M.

I'm wondering why it was approved for that long. It seems odd given the (greater?) likelihood of a No Deal Brexit.